Does Economic Growth Really Benefit the Poor? Income Distribution Dynamics and Pro-poor Growth in Indonesia

We explore the nexus between poverty, inequality, and economic growth in Indonesia between 2002 and 2012, using several pro-poor growth concepts and indices to determine whether growth in this period benefited the poor. Our regression-based decompositions of poverty into growth and redistribution components suggest that around 40% of inequality in total household expenditure in Indonesia was due to variations in expenditure by education characteristics that persisted after controlling for other factors. We find that economic growth in this period benefited households at the top of the expenditure distribution, and that a ‘trickle down’ effect saw the poor receive proportionately fewer benefits than the non-poor. If reducing poverty is one of the Indonesian government's principal objectives, then policies designed to spur growth must take into account the possible impacts of growth on inequality.     

A Nonlinear Relationship: Unemployment and Economic Growth (Construction Sector) in Spain, 1995.1–2012.2

A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun’s Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun’s Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optimal economic growth rate was determined to be 7.38 %. By applying principal components, it is demonstrated that this sector led the economic process after 1995.     

Estimating the extensive margin of trade

Understanding and quantifying the determinants of the number of sectors or firms exporting in a given country is of relevance for the assessment of trade policies. Estimation of models for the number of exporting sectors, however, poses a challenge because the dependent variable has both a lower and an upper bound, implying that the partial effects of the explanatory variables on the conditional mean of the dependent variable cannot be constant. We argue that ignoring these bounds can lead to erroneous conclusions and propose a flexible specification that accounts for the doubly-bounded nature of the dependent variable. We empirically investigate the problem and the proposed solution, finding significant differences between estimates obtained with the proposed estimator and those obtained with standard approaches.     

Impacts of technology readiness on emotions and cognition in Brazil

This study proposes and tests an extended model for consumer adoption of high technology products in a Latin American country (Brazil) by integrating concepts present in the consumer behavior literature: the Consumer Acceptance of Technology model (Kulviwat et al., 2007) and the technology readiness construct (Parasuraman, 2000). The proposed model considers the relationships between cognitive and affective constructs with technology readiness. By means of structural equation modeling conducted on a sample of 435 young consumers, the results indicate significant relationships between the constructs assessed, showing that consumers' cognitive and affective evaluations of new technologies are significantly influenced by their technology readiness. The effects of technology readiness over affective assessments were greater than those relative to cognitive evaluations regarding high-tech innovations. Nonetheless, the results may reflect specific characteristics of Brazilian (and other Latin American) consumers, who are usually more emotive than those of more rational cultures.     

Owner liability and financial reporting information as predictors of firm default in bank loans

We examine the effects of owner liability and non-accounting and financial accounting information on the probability of default as defined in Basel II in bank loan contracted by non listed firms. We model default as a function of owner liability and accounting and non-accounting information of non-listed firms, drawing on 43,117 annual accounts of 16,029 firms over a 7-year period. Our estimations based on mixed logistic regressions with random parameters show that the predicted default probability of full-liability firms is 0.72 times that of limited liability firms. The likelihood ratio test for omitted variables confirms the additional predictive ability of liability status over and above other non-accounting and financial accounting information. A Heckman self-selection model does not indicate sampling bias. The particular definition of default used in the study enables the findings to be generalizable across other institutional contexts.     

Entrepreneurial cognition and internationalization speed: towards a potential moderating effect of experiential and rational information processing

This study explores the influence that entrepreneurial cognition, in terms of the dichotomy in human information processing, has on the earliness of internationalization and post-entry speed. Entrepreneurial cognition is investigated through the lens of the dual-process theory, which posits that human information processing is formed of two systems, the experiential cognitive system (System 1) and the rational and analytical cognitive system (System 2). The speed of the entire internationalization process is analyzed in terms of earliness (how soon after inception a company enters its first international market) and post-entry speed (how fast it enters new markets after the first internationalization). Drawing on ten cases, we find that companies that internationalized earlier and faster were managed by entrepreneurs with higher levels of the experiential cognitive system. In contrast, companies that internationalized later and more gradually were managed by entrepreneurs with higher levels of the rational cognitive system. Thus, our study reveals that the speed of the entire process of internationalization is governed, at least partially, by the entrepreneur’s cognition. On the basis of our findings, we introduce three propositions on the moderation that the entrepreneur’s cognition exerts on the well-established relations between environmental signals and both earliness of internationalization and post-internationalization speed.

     

Toward a better comprehension of Lean metrics for research and product development management

This paper presents a compilation and empirical survey‐based evaluation of the metrics most commonly used by program managers during product development management. This work is part of a bigger project of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Project Management Institute (PMI) and International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE). Three methodological procedures were applied: systematic literature review, focus‐group discussions, and survey. The survey results indicate the metrics considered to be the most and least useful for managing lean engineering programs, and reveals a shift of interest towards qualitative metrics, especially the ones that address the achievement of stakeholder values, and the absence of useful metrics regarding the lean principles People and Pull.     

THE REVOLUTION WITHIN: ICT AND THE SHIFTING KNOWLEDGE BASE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST COMPANIES

This empirical article analyses the importance of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the technological diversification trend among the world's largest manufacturing firms during the 1980s and 1990s. The objective of the research is twofold: first, to emphasise the emerging differences among technologies when companies from different industries patent outside their traditional technological capabilities; secondly, to investigate whether the tendency among large companies from all industries to patent in ICT is distinctive when compared with the tendency to patent in other technologies. We find that technological diversification in large companies has clearly occurred in ICTs. Non-ICT specialist industries increasingly develop, rather than just utilise, the cluster of ICT-related technologies. We conclude that the development of corporate capabilities in the key technologies of the emerging ICT paradigm is more widespread than previously emphasised in the literature. One implication of this observation is that technological diversification and the information revolution may be related phenomena.     

Output gap in Brazil: a real-time data analysis

Recent literature for developed economies has shown that output gap estimates go through important revisions over time, impairing their reliability in real time. We organize a real-time data set for Brazil’s GDP and assess the revisions of the output gap estimated by four different methods. Similar to the findings of studies for developed economies, the output gap revisions in Brazil are substantial in all methods, with frequent changes in the output gap sign. In general, both the GDP data revision and the effect of adding new observations to the sample are relevant sources of output gap revisions. However, differently from those studies, we cannot assert that the latter source is preponderant.     

The Breakdown of Idiosyncratic Volatility Into Expected and Unexpected Components and Its Effects on Stock Returns in Brazil

Based on studies of idiosyncratic volatility developed in the recent literature, this study analyzes its relation with expected returns through the breakdown of idiosyncratic volatility in the Brazilian stock market and presents evidence of the importance of expected idiosyncratic volatility for asset pricing. We study the impact of the expected and unexpected components of idiosyncratic volatility on the returns of shares listed on the BOVESPA between 2004 and 2011. The results show a strong positive and significant relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns. This evidence is highlighted when we use unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns. Additional robustness tests, controlling for size and momentum effects, also have positive and significant coefficients, corroborating previous findings.