THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF PAY‐AS‐YOU‐GO DEFINED‐CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEMES

The paper inquires into notional defined contribution pension schemes, which retain the pay‐as‐you‐go financing method while adopting the award and indexation formulas typical of funded, defined‐contribution systems. It examines the properties of the new arrangement and compares them with those of the traditional defined‐benefit pay‐as‐you‐go schemes.     

Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?

We use a novel data set to study return predictability in debt markets. The data are collected from J.P. Morgan’s periodic surveys on its clients’ outlook for changes in US Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads. We document that simple signals constructed from such surveys predict excess returns on debt portfolios formed on the basis of duration (2-years minus zero) or credit quality (BBB minus AAA). A linear trading strategy placing equal weight on Treasury and Credit signals has an annualized Information Ratio equal to 1.18, before transaction costs. We also show that predictability is likely to stem from private information possessed by survey respondents rather than from risk premia.     

Identifying unsound firms in Italy: An attempt to use trend variables

The aims of the present study are (i) to develop a predictive model, using discriminant analysis to forecast the solvency of Italian firms and (ii) to compare the ability of this model with that of a second one in which static ratios have been replaced by values that take account of their own trends. The results obtained by considering the trends of ratios over three years are encouraging and indicate that the second model not only performed better than the first, but also better than any other model using the balance sheet data of Italian firms.     

Outsourcing and structural change. Application to a set of OECD countries

The examination in this paper aims to bridge outsourcing and structural change analyses in order to obtain more accurate insights into the extent of outsourcing and to extract more reliable policy recommendations for dealing with its effects. We do this by applying a ‘battery’ of outsourcing measurements to a group of OECD countries from 1980 to the mid 1990s. Expected results (e.g. the idiosyncratic outsourcing patterns of the UK) are confirmed on a more systematic and comparable basis, while original results (e.g. the low integration of business services in manufacturing in the former socialist economies) are based on the exploitation of new data.     

Design parameters of the strategic planning process and organizational performance—a quantitative analysis of empirical research

After 50 years of research in strategic management, the design of strategic planning processes is still on the agenda for scholarly research. Using a quantitative meta-analysis, we examine empirical studies on the relationship between organizational performance and the design parameters of the strategic planning process that can be controlled by a firm. Whereas existing literature reviews focus on the effect of strategic planning on performance, this meta-analysis also considers the role of the location and participants in the strategic planning process, the distinct properties of strategic planners and the intensity of the planning method used. The effect sizes of existing primary studies are harmonized for better comparison and aggregated for a total effect. The total effect is tested for significance and checked for homogeneity.     

Consumer search with observational learning

This article studies observational learning in a consumer search environment. Consumers observe the purchasing decision of a predecessor with similar preferences. Consumers rationally emulate by initiating their search at the firm from which their predecessor purchased, free‐riding on search effort, and reacting less to price changes. Prices are nonmonotone in search costs and may be as low as marginal costs. We discuss several extensions and show that the effect of emulation on prices is stronger when (i) the number of firms increases, (ii) consumers' first visits are more elastic with respect to market shares, and (iii) prices are adjusted more frequently.     

Trading imbalances,predictable reversals,and cross-stock price pressure

We test the implications of a multi-asset equilibrium model in which a finite number of risk-averse liquidity providers accommodate non-informational trading imbalances. These imbalances generate predictable reversals in stock returns. An imbalance in one stock also affects the prices of other stocks. The magnitude of the cross-stock price pressure depends on the correlations of the stocks’ underlying cash flows. The model implies that non-informational trading increases the volatility of stock returns. We confirm the model's implications using data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.     

Perfect Bayesian implementation

Summary We study Social Choice Sets (SCS) implementable as perfect Bayesian equilibria of some incomplete information extensive form game. We provide a necessary condition which we callcondition . The condition is analogous tocondition C that Moore and Repullo [1988] show to be necessary for subgame perfect implementation in games of complete information, and it is weaker than the Bayesian Monotonicity condition stated in Jackson [1991]. Our first theorem establishes that Incentive Compatibility, Closure and Condition are necessary for implementation.Our second theorem establishes sufficient conditions. We show that any SCS which satisfies Incentive Compatibility, Closure and a condition called Sequential Monotonicity No Veto (SMNV) is implementable. SMNV is similar in spirit but weaker than the Monotonicity No Veto condition stated in Jackson [1991]. It is also similar to a combination of condition and No Veto Power, which Abreau and Sen show to be sufficient for implementation in subgame perfect equilibrium.This paper is a revised version of a chapter of my dissertation at Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. I would like to thank, without implicating, Faruk Gul, Bob Wilson and especially John Roberts for their constant advice and encouragement. I would also like to thank participants at the 1993 Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society and a referee for comments leading to substantial improvement in the paper. Financial support from Bocconi University is gratefully acknowledged.     

Supporting retailers to exploit online settings for internationalization: The different role of trust and compensation

The development of virtual technologies discloses two main opportunities for retailers, namely the possibility of complementing their offer through a multi-channel strategy in the marketplace they operate, and of extending their business in foreign countries. The online internationalization strategy requires retailers to overcome customers' privacy concern facilitating their information sharing with the firm so as to conclude the online transaction.This paper aims at helping retailers in reaching this goal by investigating the effect on behavioural information sharing in online settings of two variables emerged as relevant in literature: trust and compensation (as a form of incentive). The results of an experimental study show the key role of trust on increasing online information sharing.