Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases in producers' hedging demand or speculators' capital constraints increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures. These in turn affect producers' equilibrium hedging and supply decision inducing a link between a financial friction in the futures market and the commodity spot prices. Consistent with the model, measures of producers' propensity to hedge forecasts futures returns and spot prices in oil and gas market data from 1979 to 2010. The component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect equilibrium commodity supply and prices.     

Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach

We study the exposure of the US corporate bond returns to liquidity shocks of stocks and Treasury bonds over the period 1973–2007 in a regime-switching model. In one regime, liquidity shocks have mostly insignificant effects on bond prices, whereas in another regime, a rise in illiquidity produces significant but conflicting effects: Prices of investment-grade bonds rise while prices of speculative-grade (junk) bonds fall substantially (relative to the market). Relating the probability of these regimes to macroeconomic conditions we find that the second regime can be predicted by economic conditions that are characterized as “stress.” These effects, which are robust to controlling for other systematic risks (term and default), suggest the existence of time-varying liquidity risk of corporate bond returns conditional on episodes of flight to liquidity. Our model can predict the out-of-sample bond returns for the stress years 2008–2009. We find a similar pattern for stocks classified by high or low book-to-market ratio, where again, liquidity shocks play a special role in periods characterized by adverse economic conditions.     

Technology transfer through imports

Abstract .  We study international technology transfer through R&D spillovers in sixteen countries' manufacturing industries since the early 1970s. The analysis shows that the productivity impact of international technology transfer often exceeds that of domestic technological change, more so in high-technology industries. Moreover, technology transfer is found to be strongly varying across country-pairs and tends to decline in geographic distance, pointing to goods trade as the transfer channel. We directly evaluate this hypothesis, and results suggest that trade is crucial for technology transfer from Germany, France, and the UK, while for the US, Japan, and Canada non-trade channels are more important.     

Appropriate pharmaceutical policies in developing countries

There are several peculiar features of the pharmaceutical industry which invite government intervention in developed as well as developing countries. In poor countries in particular, the pressure to economise on drug purchases leads to policies to bypass the system of innovation and marketing which has grown in the rich countries: thus, the large drug multinationals are subjected to a large battery of controls. The main factors which lead poor countries to permit MNCs are their superior operational efficiency and their transfer of technology. A more liberal set of policies is advocated to promote growth and innovation.     

Price Behavior in a Dynamic Oligopsony: Washington Processing Potatoes

Punishment strategies are necessary to sustain a collusive oligopsony in a repeated game context when demand is uncertain and only market variables are observable. This paper proposes a test for tacit collusion among potato processors in Washington state using a dynamic regime-switching model estimated with a finite mixture method. The results support the existence of punishment and collusive regimes and show the welfare losses due to anti-competitive behavior on the part of processors to be significant. Processors' oligopsony power is enhanced by higher domestic production, imports, and existing stocks, but it is ameliorated by high capacity utilization rates and exports.     

Private Equity vs. PLC Boards in the U.K.: A Comparison of Practices and Effectiveness

The consistently higher returns generated by the most successful private equity firms have been attributed in part to their willingness to take on high levels of debt and their ability to exit from their investments at attractive multiples. But recent research suggests that the largest contributor to the superior performance of the best PE firms has been their ability to improve the operating performance of the companies they buy. And as the authors of this article argue, a key source of such improvements are fundamental differences in the way boards function in the public and private realm.
Using in-depth interviews with 20 executives who have served on both PE and plc boards of relatively large U.K. companies, the authors provide a number of suggestive insights into such differences:
Perhaps the most visible of these differences is the "single-minded" focus of PE boards on "value creation," as contrasted with the focus of plc boards on issues of "governance" and "compliance."
Whereas PE boards view their role as "leading" the strategy of the firm and overseeing its execution by top management, plc boards are described as "monitoring" or "accompanying" strategies that are proposed and executed by management.
Whereas PE boards report near-complete alignment of objectives between executive and non-executive directors, plc boards are described as having multiple commitments to and priorities that are divided among multiple stakeholders.
Finally, whereas PE board members undergo an intensive "due diligence" process when joining boards, have frequent ongoing contacts with management, and focus heavily on the cash-generating capacity of the business, initiations of plc board members are much more formal and ceremonial, their dealings with operating management are few and limited, and the information provided them has an "accounting" orientation and covers a broad range of subjects and corporate "responsibilities."     

中国吸引外资对东南亚国家吸引外资影响的实证研究

中国吸引外资的浪潮引起了人们普遍的忧虑,中国吸引外资是否会导致流入东南亚国家的外资逐渐减少。本文在假定外资的供应是有弹性的前提下,利用对外投资区位决定因素的模型和固定效应分析方法来检验中国吸引外资与东南亚经济体吸引外资间的关系。结果显示在1986年至2001年间,中国吸引外资的增长实际上提高了邻国经济吸引外资的能力,而不是排挤了邻国外资的流入。