CAPITAL INFLOW UNDER VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINT

This paper investigates the welfare consequence of exogenous capital inflow for the host country when the source country implements ‘voluntary export restraint’. In an imperfectly competitive market with an increasing returns to scale (IRS) sector, we show the possibility of welfare immiserization. Two channels are identified leading to immiserization. First, and this is direct, resource reallocation following capital inflow can squeeze the underproduced sector and reduce welfare. Second, contraction of the IRS sector can raise the return to capital, even when the price of the capital‐intensive importable falls unambiguously. Thus, even with an improvement in commodity terms of trade, the factor terms of trade can worsen and reduce welfare.     

India's Energy Consumption Changes during 1973/74 to 1991/92

The global energy crisis in the 1970s and early 1980s had adverse economic impacts in all oil-importing countries, including India. The objective of the present paper is to analyze energy consumption changes that have taken place in the Indian economy during 1973174 to 1983184 and 1983184 to 1991192, and the factors responsible for these changes. We develop a structural decomposition analysis in which the energy consumption changes are the result of the following six different factors: technical changes; changes in the final demand structure; changes in the interaction term of technical changes and final demand structure; changes in energy exports; changes in energy imports; changes in energy change in stock. Then, we separate the technical changes and final demand structure again, which identifies explicitly the effects of energy consumption.     

An Empirical Examination of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis for India: Towards a Green Leontief Paradox?

Using input–output analysis, we examine whether India can be regarded as a pollution haven. We calculate the extra CO₂, SO₂ and NO _x emissions induced by 1 billion rupees of additional exports. This is compared with the reduction of Indian pollution caused by an import increase of equal size. In contrast to what the pollution haven hypothesis states for developing countries, we find that India considerably gains from extra trade. Comparing 1996/1997 with 1991/1992, the gains have only increased, indicating that India has moved␣further away from being a pollution haven. The outcome is robust to changes in the underlying assumptions.      

Economic liberalisation,gender wage inequality and welfare

The article develops a 3-sector general equilibrium model appropriate for economies with female labour oriented export sector to examine the effects of economic liberalisation policies on gender based wage inequality. It is assumed that there exist disparities in efficiencies between male and female labour due to skewed access to education and health, and differences in their spending patterns leading to differential effects of respective wages on their nutrition. The results indicate that tariff cut may reduce gender wage inequality, but may have detrimental effects on welfare; while foreign capital inflow may accentuate the inequality, despite improving the welfare of the economy. However, government policies to increase the provision of education and health have favourable effects on gender wage inequality but may be welfare deteriorating. Thus, the article provides a theoretical explanation to empirical evidences of diverse effects of liberalisation on gender wage inequality and explains the possibility of a trade-off between gender inequality and social welfare.     

Technology transfer in duopoly The role of cost asymmetry

This article examines the possibility of a profitable technology transfer deal in a duopoly. We show that under a fixed fee contract, technology transfer will be always profitable if the products are sufficiently differentiated or the firms behave sufficiently cooperatively or both. Under a profit sharing contract, however, a profitable technology transfer deal always exists even in a market characterised by Cournot duopoly with homogeneous goods.     

Energy Consumption Changes and CO2 Emission in India During Reforms

As we know that energy consumption or fossil fuel consumption is very much linked with environmental pollution, which is known as global climate change, so more energy related activities have an adverse impact on environment.

The paper makes an analysis of the changes in India’s energy consumption and CO₂ emission during the reforms introduced by Govt. of India in mid 1991. The energy Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) is used to identify the sources of energy consumption changes during the period 1991–92 to 1996–97. Results indicate that India’s energy consumption increased by 5.7% p.a. during the same period. Six different forces behind these changes are observed (i) technical changes, (ii) final demand structure, (iii) interaction term between technical change and final demand structure, (iv) changes in energy exports, (v) changes in energy imports, (vi) changes in energy change in stock. The empirical results show that the final demand structure, technical changes, and interaction term between final demand structure and technical changes have played important role. The findings of CO₂ emission revealed that the petroleum product and electricity are the dominating sectors, which are due to the direct effect of crude oil and coal respectively. So far as the intensities are concerned, electricity contributes a major part. The paper also suggests few policies for consideration.

     

Costly state verification and optimal investment

We model a lender-borrower relationship in a CSV framework. The project available with the firm is characterized by first-order stochastic dominance. The lender audits the borrower to prevent the latter from strategic default. In this setup, we find the optimal contract is the standard debt contract. However, a debt contract leads to overinvestment. This result is in sharp contrast to those obtained in the literature. The default probability of the project can be influenced by the nature of financial contract in place. The model also derives the relationship between the optimal debt equity ratio and the auditing costs. The work is based on the author’s Ph.D. dissertation submitted at the Indian Statistical Institute. The author wishes to thank Shubhashis Gangopadhyay and the seminar participants at the Indian Statistical Institute, Jawaharlal Nehru University, MDI, and NIILM for useful comments on the earlier draft. The paper has also benefitted immensely from the valuable insights povided by the three anonymous referees of the journal. The remaining errors are mine.     

Is post-smoking-cessation weight-gain a significant trigger for relapse?

While the Surgeon General's Consumer Guide lists weight-gain as an important relapse trigger, the 2001 Surgeon General's Report on Women and Smoking concludes, paradoxically, that actual weight-gain during cessation does not appear to predict relapse. This dichotomous view reflects longstanding scientific uncertainty about the role of weight-gain in triggering relapse. This scientific uncertainty, which stems from mixed clinical trial results, is problematic for insurance coverage decisions such as state Medicaid programme decisions to cover or exclude smoking-cessation and weight-control pharmaceuticals. Analysts hypothesize that selection bias may explain the inconsistency between the negative clinical results and the persistent view that weight-gain triggers relapse, if weight-concern is both a key determinant of the transition from ‘smoker’ to ‘ex-smoker,’ and a key moderating variable in the relationship between weight-gain and relapse. We therefore use the nationally representative 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to test the relapse-trigger hypothesis, and conclude that post-smoking-cessation weight-gain triggers relapse among weight-concerned white women, but it is associated with quitting success among Hispanic women. In addition, our results do not support the hypothesis that the mixed clinical trial results reflect selection bias based on weight-concern.     

Estimation under two stage random permutation models

Summary Estimation of the population mean under assumptions of non-informativeness of labels in a two stage finite population of distinguishable units has been studied. Under the random permutation model, for the two stage set up, sample mean, the natural estimator, is found to be the best.     

On sequential comparisons of means of first-order autoregressive models

The problem of estimating a linear combination,μ, of means ofp-independent, first-order autoregressive models is considered. Sequential procedures are derived (i) to estimateμ pointwise using the linear combination of sample means, subject to a loss function (squared error plus cost per observation), and (ii) to arrive at a fixed-width confidence interval forμ. It is observed that in the case of point estimation we do not require a sampling scheme, where as in the case of interval estimation we do require a sampling scheme and a scheme similar to the one given in Mukhopadhyay and Liberman (1989) is proposed. All the first order efficiency properties of the sequential procedures involved here are derived. This paper is an extension of results of Sriram (1987) involving one time series to multiple time series. Research supported by AFOSR Grant number 89-0225.