The effect of demand-driven structural transformations on growth and technological change

The paper analyses the effect of the dynamics of consumption preferences on the dynamics of macro–economic growth. We endogenously derive micro–dynamics of consumption behavior as a result of the increase in the number of income classes. The different degrees of inertia in the adjustment of consumption levels to income changes affect firm selection and the dynamics of market structure, which is ultimately responsible for different regimes of macro–economic growth. We find, first, that higher heterogeneity in consumption preferences amplifies and accelerates market dynamics, leading to a swift shift from a Malthusian to a Kaldorian growth pattern. Second, consumption smoothing mainly affects the timing of such a take–off. Inertia in consumption delays the occurrence of a Kaldorian engine for growth.     

Editor's Preface

Open Economies Review -     

Innovation in services: a review of the debate and a research agenda

The paper reviews the debate on innovation in services which has flourished over the last 20 years and suggests a research agenda for the services innovation literature. We discuss whether, and the extent to which, the ill-definition and mis-measurement of service output have influenced the conceptualization and analysis of innovation in services. We propose a reclassification of the literature according to whether it has been mainly assimilated or differentiated with respect to the traditional conceptualization of innovation in the manufacturing sector. We also review the integrative (or synthesizing) contributions, and suggest a taxonomy for the modes of innovation in services, based on the Lancasterian characteristics-based approach to product definition. We conclude with a summary of the key arguments and a proposed agenda for the evolutionary theory to integrate the conceptualization of innovation in services.

Monetary policy and financial stability: What role for the futures market?

This paper examines interactions between monetary policy and financial stability. There is a general view that central banks smooth interest rate changes to enhance the stability of financial markets. But might this induce a moral hazard problem, and induce financial institutions to maintain riskier portfolios, the presence of which would further inhibit active monetary policy? Hedging activities of financial institutions, such as the use of interest rate futures and swap markets to reduce risk, should further protect markets against consequences of unforeseen interest rate changes. Thus, smoothing may be both unnecessary and undesirable. The paper shows by a theoretical argument that smoothing interest rates may lead to indeterminacy of the economy's rational expectations equilibrium. Nevertheless, our empirical analysis supports the view that the Federal Reserve smoothes interest rates and reacts to interest rate futures. We add new evidence on the importance for policy of alternative indicators of financial markets stress.     

On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives

Financial derivatives are products whose price is linked with that of an underlying asset. The relationship between these two prices has been studied in depth, and the following conclusions have been reached: (1) the volatility of underlying asset's price decreases after the introduction of derivatives, (2) the price discovery effect improves, (3) the liquidity of the underlying asset's market increases, (4) the bid-ask spread decreases together, and (5) the noise component of prices decreases. Those results are microeconomic and are not coherent with a macroeconomic analysis of derivatives. Derivatives tend to change the effectiveness of monetary policy actions by modifying the instruments that can be used. Derivatives have a monetary nature that has not been yet recognized by central banks and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements. This monetary nature can be evident by testing the relationship between derivatives and the interest rate. The consciousness of the monetary nature of derivatives would impose the quantification of transactions at least by the institutions that hold them, such as banks and other financial operators, and consequently by national authorities.     

Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis

This paper explores the two-way relationship between innovationand economic performance in services using a longitudinal firm-leveldataset which matches data from the second Community InnovationSurvey, CIS II (1993–95), against a set of economic variablesprovided by the System of Enterprise Accounts (1993–98).The results presented show that innovation is positively affectedby past economic performance and that innovation activities(especially investments in ICTs) have a positive impact on bothgrowth and productivity. Furthermore, productivity and innovationact as a self-reinforcing mechanism, which further boosts economicperformance. These findings provide empirical support for theendogenous nature of innovation in services and the presencein this sector of competition models and selection mechanismsbased on innovation.