The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism

Prior research has concluded that socio-economic development does not significantly affect terrorism. We take an alternative view. First, we note that a country's socio-economic circumstances affect terrorists' behavior through terrorism's opportunity costs. We argue that this reasoning also holds for the case of supreme value terrorism. Then, we run a series of negative binomial regressions for 110 countries between 1971 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that poor socio-economic development is conducive to terrorism. We find that socio-economic variables indeed matter to terrorism, contrary to other results. Our findings imply that countries can benefit from economic development and growth in terms of a reduction in terrorism.     

The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market

This article presents joint econometric analysis of interest rate risk, issuer‐specific risk (credit risk) and bond‐specific risk (liquidity risk) in a reduced‐form framework. We estimate issuer‐specific and bond‐specific risk from corporate bond data in the German market. We find that bond‐specific risk plays a crucial role in the pricing of corporate bonds. We observe substantial differences between different bonds with respect to the relative influence of issuer‐specific vs. bond‐specific spread on the level and the volatility of the total spread. Issuer‐specific risk exhibits strong autocorrelation and a strong impact of weekday effects, the level of the risk‐free term structure and the debt to value ratio. Moreover, we can observe some impact of the stock market volatility, the respective stock's return and the distance to default. For the bond‐specific risk we find strong autocorrelation, some impact of the stock market index, the stock market volatility, weekday effects and monthly effects as well as a very weak impact of the risk‐free term structure and the specific stock's return. Altogether, the determinants of the spread components vary strongly between different bonds/issuers.     

TV Kills Social Capital?

The concept of social capital was introduced into public discussion by Robert Putnam in the mid-nineties. Since Putnam diagnosed a decline in social capital and, as a consequence thereof, a weakening of democracy and civic society in the USA, the concept gained theoretical and political meaning in German public debate as well. The major culprit contributing to the dramatic loss of social capital is said to be an old acquaintance: television. According to Putnam, about 40 percent of the decline is caused by electronic entertainment media, especially television. This article critically reflects on the theoretical foundations of Putnam’s construct of social capital. Using data from a representative survey in the German states of Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt, we examine the relations between social capital on one hand, and television and Internet use on the other. Basically we confirm Putnam’s findings — but only to a degree not even close to the strength Putnam claims to ascertain.     

The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India

Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power. An increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance, e.g. to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy.     

The intelligibility of supplier information

This paper describes a study in which the intelligibility of supplier information was investigated from a consumer viewpoint. A sample of 123 randomly selected subjects were given eight automobile brochures and asked to rate the manufacturer information on four automobile characteristics which are highly important to consumers.In order to measure intelligibility one subjective and one objective indicator were chosen. The subjective rating scores indicate considerable differences among the characteristics. As the ratings of a list of intelligibility items demonstrate, a negative scoring was especially due to a lack of explanation of technical terms and furthermore to the fact that in the subjects' view, much of what was said in the brochures could have been left out. The hit rate, which was taken as an objective indicator of intelligibility, shows that on average for all subjects and topics under consideration nearly half of the information actually given in the brochures was not made use of as it could not be identified as relevant.This unduly high amount of wasted information can be reduced only when the suppliers of information become aware of — and take into account — the readers' dissatisfaction with unnecessary information.

---

Die Verständlichkeit von Anbieterinformationen

Zusammenfassung Der Erfolg jeder Art von Kommunikation hängt von verschiedenen Faktoren, darunter nicht nur von Inhalt, sondern auch von der Präsentation der ausgesandten Information ab. Der Informationsempfänger kann die an ihn gerichtete Botschaft nur dann entschlüsseln, wenn sie für ihn verständlich abgefaßt ist, umgekehrt muß der Informationssender den Kriterien der Verständlichkeit von vornherein Rechnung tragen, wenn seine Information den gewünschten Zweck überhaupt erreichen soll. Die vorgelegte Studie hat zum Ziel, die Verständlichkeit gegebener Anbieterinformationen aus der Sicht der Konsumenten zu überprüfen und daraus Vorschläge für eine verständlichkeitsfördernde Aufbereitung der Informationen abzuleiten.Im Mittelpunkt des empirischen Vorgehens standen Anbieterinformationen, die in Prospekten enthalten sind. Beispielhaft wurde getestet, ob Herstellerinformationen in Automobilprospekten von den Prospektnutzern herausgefunden und entscheidungsbezogen umgesetzt werden können, und ob diese Informationen von den Konsumenten als verständlich bewertet werden. Im Rahmen einer schriftlichen Befragung wurde 123 zufällig ausgewählten Personen mit Führerschein eine Stichprobe von 8 Automobilprospekten zur Durchsicht nach 4 vorgegebenen Themenbereichen vorgelegt. Bei der Auswertung wurden ein subjektiver und ein objektiver Verständlichkeitsindikator unterschieden.Das subjektive Urteil der Befragten signalisiert erhebliche Unterschiede im Grad der Verständlichkeit der Informationen zwischen den einzelnen Bereichen. Die zusätzliche Bewertung einer Liste von 10 bipolaren Verständlichkeitsmerkmalen zeigte, daß wesentliche Gründe für negative Urteile der Befragten darin liegen, daß einerseits Fachwörter in den Prospekten nicht erklärt, andererseits viel überflüssige Worte gemacht werden. Die Findequote als objektives Maß für Verständlichkeit wies aus, daß im Durchschnitt über alle Befragten und Themenbereiche nahezu 50% der in den Prospekten tatsächlich enthaltenen Informationen von den Befragten nicht herausgefunden werden konnten. Dieses unerwartet hohe Ausmaß an fehlangebotenen, weil nicht genutzten Informationen könnte dann reduziert werden, wenn die Informationsanbieter ihre Botschaften verstärkt anwendungsbezogen, den Kognitionen der Verbraucher entsprechend aufbereiteten und durch Streichung von überflüssigen Zusätzen verdichteten.

---

---

Ingrid Gottschalk and Iris Schneider are Research Associates at the University of Hohenheim, Institute 530, P.O. Box 700562, D-7000 Stuttgart 70, FRG.