The Politics of Canadian Monetary Policy: Reassessing Canadian Inflation,Part II

This is the second installment of a two-part article on Canadian inflation. This article builds on the traditional conflict theory of inflation by applying insights from the post-Keynesian and micro-politics theories of money and central bank policy. It argues that the Bank of Canada’s inflation targets — not just inflation itself — have to be understood in terms of social conflict and power. This analysis extends the evidence on the distributive implications of Canadian inflation offered in Part I.     

Black and white female body mass index values in the developing late 19th and early 20th century United States

When traditional measures for economic welfare are scarce or unreliable, stature and the body mass index (BMI) are now widely-used measures that reflect economic conditions. However, little work exists for late 19th and early 20th century women’s BMIs in the US and how they varied over time. Women’s BMIs stagnated throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries. After controlling for characteristics, African-American women had higher BMIs than lighter complexioned mixed-race and white women. Women from the Southwest were taller and had lower BMIs than women born elsewhere within the US. Alternatively, women’s BMIs did not vary by socioeconomic status.     

Political Opinions and the TUCE

The TUCE is being widely used in economic education research at the college level. Although it has gained acceptance as a standardized evaluation instrument, it has also become the subject of close scrutiny. Rothman and Scott report on their study to determine whether or not the TUCE “may also measure political attitudes.” The relationship between the students' political opinions and their scores on the TUCE are examined, but other possible explanatory variables (such as previous economics instruction, sex and SAT scores) are also analyzed. The authors discuss possible reasons why “untrained conservatives know more about market systems than do untrained liberals,” and suggest that there are factors other than economic conservatism at work.     

Economics Goes to Hollywood: Using Classic Films and Documentaries to Create an Undergraduate Economics Course

The authors describe an interdisciplinary approach to teaching economics that uses a powerful contemporary medium, the motion picture, to establish the context for teaching elementary economics concepts. The plots and subplots in many films can be used to illustrate problems and issues that are amenable to economic analysis. They suggest how these films can be sequenced to create a general studies course for nonmajors.     

Trans‐state entities: Postmodern cracks in the great Westphalian dam

With the seemingly sudden end of the Cold War and the succeeding disintegration of the Soviet Union, the 1990s opened as a decade promising structural change in a geopolitical system premised on the overall stability of superpower rivalry. Yet as the decade comes to a close, challenges to the structure of global politics have grown deeper and more pervasive than could have been conceived only ten years before. Postmodernist deconstructions of the meaning and viability of states have emerged throughout the course of the decade to challenge the very viability of the Westphalian state system upon which the fundamental principles of global politics have been based. Concurrent with these philosophical developments has been the institutional emergence of quasi‐political entities, herein referred to as ‘trans‐state entities’ (TSEs), comprised of the constituent parts of neighbouring states. It is argued that TSEs manifest themselves as the result of a convergence of the increased permeability of boundaries between states and the postmodern deconstruction of states themselves as their sub‐state political units seek closer co‐operation, even policy co‐ordination, to improve their collective economic, environmental, or other situation. Three TSEs, diverse in both geographical location and in institutional manifestation yet concurrently quite similar in their means, purposes and goals, will be examined.     

Exchange market pressure,stock prices,and commodity prices in West Africa

As Africa continues its decade of rapid economic growth, the continent also faces the risk of becoming more susceptible to financial ‘contagion.’ Capital flows and trade linkages might cause one country’s currency market to influence those of its neighbors. Likewise, shocks to global commodity or asset markets might induce a crisis in one or more countries in the region. This study generates monthly measures of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four individual West African countries, as well as for the WAEMU franc zone, from 2002 to 2012. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods are then used to test for linkages among them, as well as to analyze the effects of various external price shocks. A number of spillovers are uncovered. More importantly, local connections dominate global ones in the case of stock- and commodity-price declines. Ghana, for example, is shown to be a ‘commodity currency’ when West African commodity prices are included in the VAR, but not when a global index is used.     

Metrics for strategic alliance control

The paper develops a feedback control model of product development alliance management. The model allows us to place alliance review, and the metrics for this review, in the context of the control problems facing the alliance manager. We then specify a set of alliance review metrics, and outline the characteristics which they must have. Managers have a pressing need for such metrics, given the management challenges of alliances and the difficulties companies face in making them work effectively. The control model is then expanded to allow for changes in the nature of the alliance itself and inter-project learning. The development of the models and of the metrics is guided by the experiences of a large electronic systems manufacturer in alliances with a number of smaller strategic technology suppliers.     

Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making

Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method. An inspection of global temperature data suggests that temperature is subject to irregular variations on all relevant time scales, and that variations during the late 1900s were not unusual. In such a situation, a “no change” extrapolation is an appropriate benchmark forecasting method. We used the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s annual average thermometer data from 1850 through 2007 to examine the performance of the benchmark method. The accuracy of forecasts from the benchmark is such that even perfect forecasts would be unlikely to help policymakers. For example, mean absolute errors for the 20- and 50-year horizons were 0.18  C and 0.24  C respectively. We nevertheless demonstrate the use of benchmarking with the example of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 1992 linear projection of long-term warming at a rate of 0.03  C per year. The small sample of errors from ex ante projections at 0.03  C per year for 1992 through 2008 was practically indistinguishable from the benchmark errors. Validation for long-term forecasting, however, requires a much longer horizon. Again using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO₂ growth—the years 1851 to 1975. The errors from the projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons. Our validation exercise illustrates the importance of determining whether it is possible to obtain forecasts that are more useful than those from a simple benchmark before making expensive policy decisions.     

How Much Are Borrowers Willing to Pay to Remove Uncertainty Surrounding Mortgage Defaults?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Using a large, non-student sample, we assess and differentiate between borrowers’ Risk Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion levels and their...     

Learning from failure: A systematized review

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Iteration and improvement are important attributes of design, tacitly indicating that failure is also a part of the process. There are...