Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.     

Value versus Volume in the Catch of the Spanish South‐Atlantic Trawl Fishery

An understanding of the link between the level of inputs and resultant level of outputs is of considerable importance when trying to manage fisheries through input controls. To this end, studies of several fisheries have been undertaken to examine this relationship through the estimation of production functions and frontiers, using either catch weight or revenue as the dependent variable. The choice of the appropriate output variable to use in the analysis will depend on the objectives of the fishermen. Maximisation of catch weight is often proposed as an objective of fishermen rather than maximisation of profits. In this paper, the technical efficiency scores of vessels operating in the Spanish south‐Atlantic trawl fishery are estimated using the stochastic production frontier approach. The production frontiers are estimated with both the weight and the value of the catch as the dependent variable. The results of the analysis suggest that fishermen adopt a range of strategies but relatively few aim to maximise catch weight only. The differences in strategies may reflect heterogeneous attitudes towards risk, with more risk averse fishermen aiming to trade‐off some potential catch value for a more certain quantity of catch.     

A regional diffusion theory explanation for states’ proposal and adoption of anti-passive investment company laws

We investigate the propensity of states to propose and adopt laws prohibiting the deduction of intercompany interest or royalties in response to the passive investment company tax minimization strategy (anti-PIC statutes). Using event history analysis with panel data from 1991–2005, we investigate whether regional diffusion theory explains the proposal and adoption of anti-PIC statutes. Our results provide support for the regional diffusion theory explanation, in that both proposing and adopting states have a higher proportion of adopting states in their particular Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) region. We find no relationship between decreases in states’ real corporate income tax revenues and their adoption of anti-PIC statutes, but do find that proposals are more common in states with slower growth in real personal income. This study contributes to existing state and local tax policy research by demonstrating that certain types of policy decisions may arise from reasons closely linked to herding behavior.     

Does insider trading explain price run‐up ahead of takeover announcements?

This study empirically examines the impact of changes in substantial shareholdings ahead of 450 Australian takeover offers between the years 2000 and 2009. Previous studies have attributed a significant proportion of the price run‐up effect in takeover targets to insider‐trading behaviour. This study examines the contribution of a broad range of public information sources that are known to typically generate market anticipation, including the acquisition of toeholds ahead of takeover announcements. Our findings show no significant pre‐bid run‐up for takeover targets after considering these sources. We conclude from these results that previous findings attributing pre‐bid share price run‐up to illegal insider trading may overstate the existence of such conduct.     

Entrepreneurial ecosystems and the lifecycle of university business incubators: An integrative case study

University business incubators (UBIs) are an important part of the ecosystem that supports entrepreneurial activities and economic development. Extant research has focused on examining UBI activities at a single point in time, but there is a paucity of theoretical and empirical work aimed at understanding the forces that explain why and how UBIs change over time. This is an important gap because establishing a university business incubator does not assure its development and growth. We address this issue by drawing upon the Fisher et al. Academy of Management Review, 41(3), 383-409 (2016) Identity-Legitimacy-Life Cycle model to explain how the pursuit of resources and organizational legitimacy shapes the development of UBIs along key strategic and operational dimensions, which has implications for performance evaluation over time. We illustrate with a case study about the creation and evolution of the DMZ, a leading UBI at Ryerson University in Canada. This case provides new insights about the dynamics of UBIs and their relationships with the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which they are embedded. Implications for future research, management practice, and public policy are discussed.

     

Professor Reva Berman Brown (1939–2007) – A Tribute

The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to determine if an ethics presentation at an Italian university can change students' perceptions of ethics; and (2) to compare the results of this study with previously published results from US students. The ethics presentation, previously developed by Smith, Smith and Mulig (2005) Journal of Business Ethics, 61(2), pp. 153–164, for accounting and business classes, made available on the Internet, was adapted and used in classes in Italy. As in the USA, Italy has faced significant financial scandals and corporate failures in recent years. Both Italian and US penal laws have been changed to prevent future financial frauds, but there are limits to what laws can accomplish. The ethics presentation described in this Teaching Note was an effort to encourage students to consider the importance of ethics. The impact of the presentation on Italian students' perspectives is described. In addition, a comparison is made of the impact of the presentation in Italy and in the USA, which shows that students in both countries regard ethics as a very important topic.     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?

Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant.     

European Air Transport — Uncabin the Consumer

The deregulation of air routes between London and Dublin has brought travellers the benefits of competition; and, hardly surprisingly, as prices have fallen the numbers making the journey have increased. Sean Barrett, Lecturer in Economics, and Mark Purdy of Trinity College, Dublin, compare the effects of liberalisation with those of the restricted entry to the European air transport market. How long, they ask, will the European consumer be denied similar benefits?