Exchange rate market efficiency and new information

This paper uses a multi-currency approach to analyze the relationship between forward exchange rates, future spot rates and new information. The empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance and ‘news’.     

A note on the dynamic adjustment of the demand for international reserves by LDC's

The dynamics of the adjustment of the demand for international reserves by LDC's is analyzed. Using a GLS procedure on pooled cross section-time series data it is showed that, contrary to previous results, the speed at which actual reserves adjust to desired reserves is very fast: in one year 95 percent of this adjustment is completed.     

The Halle Economic Projection Model

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. (2008a,b,c). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70% of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and historical shock decomposition.     

Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: the 2008–2009 recession in Germany

The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008–2009, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on the income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context, we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.     

The Relationship Between Leaders’ Group-Oriented Values and Follower Identification with and Endorsement of Leaders: The Moderating Role of Leaders’ Group Membership

In this article, we hypothesize that leaders who display group-oriented values (i.e., values that focus on the welfare of the group rather than on the self-interest of the leader) will be evaluated more positively by their followers than leaders who do not display group-oriented values. Importantly, we expected these effects to be more pronounced for leaders who are ingroup members (i.e., stemming from the same social group as their followers) than for leaders who are outgroup members (i.e., leaders stemming from a different social group than their followers). We tested our hypotheses in two studies. Results of a field study (N = 95) showed the expected relationship between leaders’ group-oriented values and followers’ identification with their leaders. A scenario study (N = 137) replicated the results and extended it to followers’ endorsement of their leaders. Overall, these findings suggest that displaying group-oriented values pays off more for ingroup than for outgroup leaders.     

Rethinking ‘Top‐Down’ and ‘Bottom‐Up’ Roles of Top and Middle Managers in Organizational Change: Implications for Employee Support

In this study we integrate insights from ‘top‐down’ and ‘bottom‐up’ traditions in organizational change research to understand employees’ varying dispositions to support change. We distinguish between change initiation and change execution roles and identify four possible role configurations in which top managers (TMs) and middle managers (MMs) can feature in change. We contend that both TMs and MMs can play change initiation and/or change execution roles, TMs and MMs have different strengths and limitations for taking on different change roles, and their relative strengths and limitations are compounded or attenuated based on the specific configuration of change roles. We subsequently hypothesize employee support for change in relation to different TM‐MM change role configurations. Our findings show that change initiated by TMs does not engender above‐average level of employee support. However, change initiated by MMs engenders above‐average level of employee support, and even more so, if TMs handle the change execution.     

The relationship between employee performance management and civil servants’ turnover intentions: a test of the mediating roles of system satisfaction and affective commitment

In search of maximizing efficiency, public organizations found solace in the adoption of employee performance management (EPM) systems. While research supports that managing employees’ performance has favourable outcomes, it is still unclear why and under which conditions. Moreover, EPM systems might even create additional pressures and therefore increase turnover intentions and undermine public organization’s quest to maximize efficiency. We argue that when EPM systems are carried out consistently (i.e. internal consistency) and when they link civil servants’ individual goals to the organization’s strategic goals (i.e. vertical alignment), civil servants will be less likely to leave the organization. Hierarchical linear regression analysis shows that internal consistency relates to increased satisfaction with the EPM system and affective commitment to the organization. Vertical alignment relates to lower levels of turnover intentions. This relationship was mediated by EPM system satisfaction and affective commitment. These findings that contribute to our understanding of EPM systems can lead to favourable outcomes.     

Hedging with small uncertainty aversion

We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on their “distance” to a reference local volatility model. In the limit for small uncertainty aversion, this leads to explicit formulas for prices and hedging strategies in terms of the security’s cash gamma.     

Model uncertainty,recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging

We study option pricing and hedging with uncertainty about a Black–Scholes reference model which is dynamically recalibrated to the market price of a liquidly traded vanilla option. For dynamic trading in the underlying asset and this vanilla option, delta–vega hedging is asymptotically optimal in the limit for small uncertainty aversion. The corresponding indifference price corrections are determined by the disparity between the vegas, gammas, vannas and volgas of the non-traded and the liquidly traded options.