SCAM: Design of a learning and teaching resource

University accounting students often have to assimilate technical auditing knowledge without practical audit experience. The desire to develop an appropriate experiential opportunity motivated this research - to create an audit teaching and learning resource to simulate audit experience and facilitate the development of transferable skills. Literature findings and dedicated questionnaire survey results suggested that such a resource should: (i) use a web based case-study to simulate a real-life audit scenario; (ii) require group working of the participants; (iii) facilitate the use and development of a range of transferable skills; and (iv) encourage a consideration of the wider business context. The web-based resource SCAM (www.scam-plc.co.uk) was developed to address these aims. This paper details this development process.     

A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.     

Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights

Simple forecast combinations such as medians and trimmed or winsorized means are known to improve the accuracy of point forecasts, and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) has given rise to so-called Akaike weights, which have been used successfully to combine statistical models for inference and prediction in specialist fields, e.g., ecology and medicine. We examine combining exponential smoothing point and interval forecasts using weights derived from AIC, small-sample-corrected AIC and BIC on the M1 and M3 Competition datasets. Weighted forecast combinations perform better than forecasts selected using information criteria, in terms of both point forecast accuracy and prediction interval coverage. Simple combinations and weighted combinations do not consistently outperform one another, while simple combinations sometimes perform worse than single forecasts selected by information criteria. We find a tendency for a longer history to be associated with a better prediction interval coverage.     

Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting

How well can people use autocorrelation information when making judgmental forecasts? In Experiment 1, participants forecast from 12 series in which the autocorrelation varied within subjects. The participants showed a sensitivity to the degree of autocorrelation. However, their forecasts indicated that they implicitly assumed positive autocorrelation in uncorrelated time series. Experiments 2 and 2a used a one-shot single-trial between-subjects design and obtained similar results. Experiment 3 investigated the way in which the between-trials context influenced forecasting. The results showed that forecasts are affected by the characteristics of previous series, as well as those of the series from which forecasts are to be made. Our findings can be accommodated within an adaptive approach. Forecasters base their initial expectations of series characteristics on their past experience and modify these expectations in a pseudo-Bayesian manner on the basis of their analysis of those characteristics in the series to be forecast.     

Forecasting levels of log variables in vector autoregressions

Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest, even though a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case, converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naïve forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential transformation is not theoretically optimal. A simple expression for the optimal forecast under normality assumptions is derived. However, despite its theoretical advantages, the optimal forecast is shown to be inferior to the naïve forecast if specification and estimation uncertainty are taken into account. Hence, in practice, using the exponential of the log forecast is preferable to using the optimal forecast.     

Assessing value-in-use: A conceptual framework and exploratory study

Developing approaches for understanding customer perceived value is a priority for managers and scholars alike. A conceptual framework for assessment of value-in-use is proposed and explored within the context of a maintenance service provider. In contrast to value models in previous empirical research, the framework includes assessment not just of provider attributes but also of the customer's usage processes, as well as customer evaluations of the value-in-use they obtain. Interviews with members of a cross-disciplinary buying group provide support for the framework, including the observations that individuals can assess the quality of their usage processes and that they can articulate value-in-use at both organisational and individual levels; the further concept of network quality also emerges from the data. Assessment of usage process quality as well as service quality evolves as the customer's goals evolve. Practitioners may wish to elicit usage process quality and value-in-use as well as service quality. Research directions include scale development for both usage process quality and value-in-use.     

Are pricing policies an impediment to the success of customer solutions?

In an era of declining pricing power and increased global competition, customized solutions appear to be an effective way to build competitive advantages without the debilitating effects of price competition. Solutions involve provision of an integrated combination of goods and services that are designed to meet a business customer's specific needs. Premium prices and higher margins can be extracted by solution providers, who now have considerable incentives to design and market innovative solutions for their customers. We examine the applicability of various pricing frameworks and pricing practices in the context of two industries — business process outsourcing and power generation equipments. Our interviews suggest that firms predominantly use traditional pricing strategies; new strategies for solution pricing are only emerging; and, successful firms are currently using hybrid pricing models. We find that the solutions that we observed among practitioners are not what theory would suggest as true solutions but what would be described by theory as bundled products. We also find that solutions are in the eye of the beholder, i.e., if customers can de-bundle offerings, they are not true solutions. We extend our findings to academic theory and to the practice of developing and pricing solutions.     

An examination of the influence of guanxi and xinyong (utilization of personal trust) on negotiation outcome in China: An old friend approach

Managers of multi-national enterprises (MNEs) are at a disadvantage in negotiating outcomes with their Chinese counterparts when compared to local competitors. The reasons include: local competitors are more flexible in handling business terms and conditions; local Chinese managers prefer to negotiate with their old friends or insiders in the same guanxi network; and MNE managers perceive that cultural practices such as gift-giving and guanxi are problematic. This study advances our understanding of negotiation by using a model developed for the reference of MNEs to establish an “old friend” relational status with their local Chinese counterparts. This approach emphasizes cultural adaptation for MNE managers to achieve satisfying negotiation outcomes in China.The study reveals the following unique issues: 1) in addition to their problem-solving attitude, MNE managers should practice mianzi and gift-giving to build renqing with their Chinese counterparts at a new friend stage; 2) the reciprocity dynamics of renqing should enable these managers to accumulate ganqing and to become old friends of their Chinese counterparts; 3) the establishment of ganqing between MNE managers and their Chinese counterparts should enable the development of xinyong between the two exchange parties; and 4) desirable negotiation outcomes can be built on xinyong.