Weighted symmetric tests for a unit root: response functions,power, test dependence and test conflict

The most frequently applied test statistics for a unit root are the Dickey–Fuller tests, which are built into many econometric packages along with MacKinnon's empirical response functions. This article provides empirical response functions for some easy to compute alternative test statistics that are generally much more powerful than the Dickey–Fuller tests; specifically, these are the Dickey–Fuller tests and the weighted symmetric versions of the and tests. The empirical response functions presented here take into account adjustments for lag length in the maintained regression, and also extend the design of the simulation experiments compared to previous work. A second aspect of this study concerns the widespread practice in applied econometrics of using more than one test for the same feature without an assessment of the implications for the cumulative significance level and probability of test conflict. Tests for a unit root being are a leading example of this practice. Using the extended set of unit root tests considered here, the extent of test dependence is simulated and overall type one error calculated. Two empirical applications illustrate the key principles.     

Defined contribution health plan to consumer driven health benefits: evolution and experience

Today, the idea of placing more choice on employees "consuming" health care and giving them more responsibility and incentive to control health care costs and utilization is alive and thriving in the form of consumer-driven health care. This article examines the evolution of consumer-driven health benefits--including the experience of the first generation of "defined contribution" health care participants (i.e., retirees) and the results of different approaches employers have taken to early consumer-driven plan designs. The author then describes what's needed to answer the question: "Can consumer-driven health care control health cost?"     

The scholarly output of economists: A description of publishing patterns

This paper analyzes the research productivity of a cohort of economists over the 15 years following receipt of their doctorate degrees, contrasting their results in publishing articles, books, and textbooks after controlling for the individual characteristics of the economists in the sample. Specifically, this paper considers the quality of graduate school, the type of employment, the general area of dissertation research, and the gender of each individual in the cohort. Primary conclusions indicate that scholarly journals are the most important research outlet, and that book production is a complementary activity to output in scholarly journals. Moreover, publishing success is closely related to the quality of the graduate school attended as well as the type of employer. According to this research, women do not face a statistically significant disadvantage to publishing. Finally, the analysis documents that midway through the 15-year time span covered by this study, output begins to decline, reflecting the post-tenure drop-off in research productivity.     

Dynamic capabilities and e-service

The rapid, pervasive growth of Internet use for business purposes has had a noticeable effect on numerous firms' business strategies. This type of perturbation among competitors results in a more dynamic market. To be successful in such a market often requires a firm to reexamine how it competes. In recent years, two strategic management theories—the resource-based view (RBV) and the dynamic capabilities theory (DCT)—have been advanced by proponents as being the key to developing successful competitive advantage. We argue that the DCT is a logical extension of the RBV. Operationalization has been a critical issue for both theories, and this paper fills a gap in the literature by offering a method of operationalizing dynamic capabilities. Copyright © 2009 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium

This paper studies the relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, using cointegration, Granger causality, and reduced form methods on data from three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Guyana, and Trinidad & Tobago, for the period 1985–93. Where the central bank follows a passive policy of infrequent and large adjustments to the official rate, changes in the official rate Granger causes changes in the parallel rate, and larger disparities prevail between the two rates. Foreign exchange controls, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, and changes of government mostly have a positive effect on the parallel market premium, with foreign exchange controls exerting the strongest impact.     

Organizational Causes and Strategic Consequences of the Extent of Top Management Team Replacement During Turnaround Attempts

Researchers have argued that top management team changes are an important force spurring change at declining firms. Yet, studies find that top executives at some firms are able to avoid being replaced even though their firms perform poorly. Also, despite support from numerous case analyses, there is little systematic evidence that replacing top managers leads to substantial organizational change at declining firms. In this study, we examine these issues by looking at levels of top management team replacement at a sample of declining firms attempting turnarounds. We find that top management team replacement levels vary with the presence of inertial or change-creating forces within firms. In particular, reduced levels of top management team replacement occur during turnaround attempts at large firms and those that have followed the same strategic orientation for a long period of time. Meanwhile, increases in outsider control of the board are associated with increased levels of replacement. We further find that higher levels of top management team replacement are associated with greater changes in firm competitive strategy and firm structure and controls during turnaround attempts. Overall, our findings show that organizational-level forces play an important role in top management and strategic change processes at declining firms.     

Finite sample bias of the least squares estimator in an AR(p) model: estimation,inference, simulation and examples

This paper shows that the first order bias of least squares estimators of the coefficients of an AR(p) model is important for ‘typical’ macroeconomic time series and proposes a simple to apply method of bias reduction. Biases in individual coefficients often cumulate in the sum with far-reaching consequences for the cumulative impulse response function. This function, being nonlinear in the underlying coefficients, is particularly sensitive to biases when, as is often the case, the shocks are long-lived. Simulations and examples demonstrate some of the magnitudes involved.