An Open Innovation Decision Support System to Select a Biopharmaceutical R&D Portfolio

Drugs available in the market today, selected several years ago under very uncertain future scenario, have experienced a long and expensive process of research and development carried out following both a closed and an open innovation path. To support this critical selection process, we propose a Decision Support System, able to choose among different candidates the most promising drugs along their best development path. The Decision Support System, based on a real options portfolio optimization model, mapping tools, and what‐if rules as well, has been applied to a numerical example available in literature, and the research findings show interesting managerial and academic implications. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The double‐edged effect of knowledge acquisition: How contracts safeguard pre‐existing resources

Research summary : Acquiring knowledge on a partner's pre‐existing resources plays an important yet ambiguous role in collaborative relationships. We formally model how contracts trade off productive and destructive uses of knowledge in a buyer‐supplier relationship. We show that, when the buyer's pre‐existing resources are vulnerable to the revelation of sensitive knowledge, the supplier overinvests in knowledge acquisition as it expects to use the knowledge as a threat in price negotiations. A non‐renegotiable closed‐price contract prevents such overinvestment and reduces the supplier's ability to expropriate the buyer ex post. Our results extend to the cases of renegotiable closed‐price contracts, repeated interactions between a buyer and a supplier, and the use of nondisclosure policies. We draw theoretical, empirical, and managerial implications from our model. Managerial summary : This study yields new insights regarding the use of contract design in protecting pre‐existing, nonrelationship specific assets in buyer‐supplier arrangements. Anecdotal examples illustrate the “dark side” of these arrangements where opportunistic suppliers exploit knowledge of buyers' pre‐existing resources to seek rent and appropriate value. When a supplier is likely to act harmfully, a closed‐price contract that specifies the price of the supplier's component upfront may reduce the supplier's incentives to overinvest in acquiring and exploiting knowledge of the buyer's pre‐existing resources. As such, when a buyer's pre‐existing resources are highly valuable, and thus more vulnerable to use by the supplier outside of the arrangement, a non‐renegotiable closed‐price contract is more efficient. Additionally, limited disclosure policies and informal agreements based on repeated interactions complement indirect governance via price contracts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism and online photography

This paper documents the use of online travel photo-sharing technologies among Hong Kong residents. The advent of Web 2.0 is changing fundamentally the tourist information search and destination choice process. Yet, to date, no study has documented Web 2.0 usage levels and preferences for certain media for posting travel photographs across an entire community. This study reveals that some 89% of pleasure travelers take photographs and that 41% of them posted their photographs online. Social network sites (SNSs), instant messaging, online photo albums and personal blogs were the most popular media used. In general, people who post photographs online tend to be younger, better educated, and earn a higher income than those who do not. The study determined that most people also use multiple media platforms to disseminate their images. Cluster analysis based on the four major styles of online platform identified five cohorts of users who differed in number and type of media used, demographic profile and travel motive. Implications for destination promotion are discussed.     

Does consumer‐firm affiliation matter? The impact of social distance on consumers’ moral judgments

When the leader of a firm commits a professional transgression, how would customers’ judgments of the transgressor's professional performance and immorality differ from those of noncustomers’? This research answers this question by investigating factors that explain the discrepancy in moral judgments between noncustomers and customers affiliated with the firm of a transgressing leader. Drawing on construal level theory, our two experimental studies consistently demonstrate that relative to high social distance (i.e., noncustomers), low social distance (i.e., customers) leads to more positive judgments of the transgressor's professional performance, but differences in the social distance do not directly lead to disparities in judgments of immorality. Social distance, however, affects both performance and immorality judgments when mediating mechanisms (conscious and nonconscious moral reasoning) are accounted for, such that low social distance indirectly influences customers to be more lenient in not only their performance judgments but also their immorality judgments. This research contributes to the topic of morality that permeates the current discourse on ethical business transgressions and, in particular, to an understanding of specific mechanisms that guide consumers’ moral judgments.     

Budget-constrained optimal reinsurance design under coherent risk measures

ABSTRACT

Reinsurance is a versatile risk management strategy commonly employed by insurers to optimize their risk profile. In this paper, we study an optimal reinsurance design problem minimizing a general law-invariant coherent risk measure of the net risk exposure of a generic insurer, in conjunction with a general law-invariant comonotonic additive convex reinsurance premium principle and a premium budget constraint. Due to its intrinsic generality, this contract design problem encompasses a wide body of optimal reinsurance models commonly encountered in practice. A three-step solution scheme is presented. Firstly, the objective and constraint functions are exhibited in the so-called Kusuoka's integral representations. Secondly, the mini-max theorem for infinite dimensional spaces is applied to interchange the infimum on the space of indemnities and the supremum on the space of probability measures. Thirdly, the recently developed Neyman–Pearson methodology due to Lo (2017a) is adopted to solve the resulting infimum problem. Analytic and transparent expressions for the optimal reinsurance policy are provided, followed by illustrative examples.     

Theories of the Firm and the Relationship between Different Perspectives on the Division of Labour

This paper explores the tension between the organisational learning, market and hierarchies rationales for the firm. It is not clear, from the organisational learning and market-hierarchies literatures, what role exists for the different approaches. The paper suggests that this reflects the fact that each paradigm is premised on a particular notion of the division of labour but, at the same time, does not recognise that the division of labour is multifaceted. The paper suggests one possible approach to reconcile the various rationales for the firm. To do this, the different paradigms are placed in the context of different growth patterns that support different conceptions of the division of labour.     

Teaching quality enhancement using value-chain instruction system design

This study focuses on creating learning value by applying process reengineering as the central concern of instruction design. It also applies the concept of total quality management, which includes learner satisfaction levels, teaching service levels, and learner response potential, to develop value-chain instruction system design (VCISD). The purpose of the study is to raise the quality of education by reconstructing the content and procedures of teaching. To determine if the proposed instruction system design is superior to traditional methods, this study uses empirical research to validate the effectiveness of VCISD. Results show that VCISD had positive effects on students’ learning outcomes in terms of listening comprehension and reading comprehension. Students also attained higher satisfaction levels in terms of the use of teaching material/teaching aids in class, the depth of teaching content, the breadth of teaching content, the liveliness of teaching content, and the coherence and continuity of teaching content.     

Real-world evidence of improved healthcare utilization in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder after early treatment of paliperidone palmitate once-monthly treatment in Hong Kong

Background: Very few data are available to demonstrate the economic benefit of early paliperidone palmitate once-monthly long-acting injectable (PP1M) treatment in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder.

Methods and materials: This study has retrospectively compared the healthcare utilization and associated costs of pre- and post-PPIM treatment in 413 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder recruited from three major public hospitals providing psychiatric services in Hong Kong. Patients were categorized into early treatment (≤3 years since diagnosis) and chronic (>3 years) groups, and also whether they were receiving polypharmacy (POP).

Results: It was found that patients who were started on early therapy with no POP had the most favourable outcomes. Overall results of the entire cohort, including both early and late treatments, indicate that there was a slight increase in annual in-patient days (IP) per patient and outpatient visit (OP) by 3.18 and 1.87, respectively, and a decrease in emergency room visit (ER) of 0.9 (p?p?p?p?Conclusions: From the 413 patients studied, potential annual savings is higher by early administration of PPIM in patients with NP. Analysis using multivariate linear regression based on generalized estimating equations and sensitivity analysis using a linear mixed model supported the findings.     

Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms

We apply machine-learning techniques to construct nonlinear nonparametric forecasting models of consumer credit risk. By combining customer transactions and credit bureau data from January 2005 to April 2009 for a sample of a major commercial bank’s customers, we are able to construct out-of-sample forecasts that significantly improve the classification rates of credit-card-holder delinquencies and defaults, with linear regression R²’s of forecasted/realized delinquencies of 85%. Using conservative assumptions for the costs and benefits of cutting credit lines based on machine-learning forecasts, we estimate the cost savings to range from 6% to 25% of total losses. Moreover, the time-series patterns of estimated delinquency rates from this model over the course of the recent financial crisis suggest that aggregated consumer credit-risk analytics may have important applications in forecasting systemic risk.