Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro‐economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno‐cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high‐emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy‐induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.     

An adjustment cost model of long-term employment in Japan

A dynamic factor demand model is presented which pays special attention to the prevalence of a long-term employment relationship in Japan. The model is based on the representation of technology by a variable cost function with adjustment costs for employment and capital stock, where the variable cost consists of the sum of overtime costs and materials costs. With employment being quasi-fixed and scheduled hours institutionally regulated, short-run adjustments are mostly made by overtime hours. Application to a time-series data on the Japanese electrical machinery industry indicates quasi-fixity of capital and employment and reproduces short-run overshooting of overtime hours to compensate for the sluggish adjustment of employment.     

TECHNICAL PROGRAESS AND INVESTMENT: A VINTAGE MODEL*

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal investment decision of the firm with a vintage production function. First, the optimal conditions for the investment and replacement permitting jumps in the state variables are derived. Second the effects of exogenous parameters on investment are examined and the following new results are obtained: (1) whether a rise in the current money wage increases or decreases investment depends crucially on the time profile of the existing plants; (2) a rise in the rate of technical progress reduces investment.     

Agglomeration economies in urban manufacturing industries: A case of Japanese cities

The effects of urban agglomeration economies on productivities in two-digit manufacturing industries is estimated using the cross section data of Japanese cities in 1979. Urbanization and localization economies, which are major forms of urban agglomeration economies, are explicitly separated. The estimates of these economies vary considerably among industries. Light industries receive more productive advantages from urbanization economies than from localization economies, but heavy industries experience these economies more from localization economies than from urbanization economies.     

Introduction: New directions in Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance

Conclusion The evidence presented in this special issue supports the view that preexisting information held by mortgage lenders plays an important role in mortgage approvals. This argues for mortgage lending programs that make efficient use of lender information, and it supports the importance of local financial intermediaries for lending. It also suggests that mortgage finance is an important element in turning transitory shocks into persistent ones that shape macroeconomic and regional business cycles.This Journal has from its inception, with the publication of a seminal article on information and incentives on mortgage contract terms by Dunn and Spart (1988), pushed forward the frontier of knowledge on information issues in real estate finance. This special issue presents empirical evidence on the importance of this aspect of mortgages.     

Electricity saving behavior of households by making efforts,replacing appliances,and renovations: empirical analysis using a multivariate ordered probit model

This study empirically explores the determinants of household electricity saving behavior based on a sample of Japanese households. Our study makes four contributions. First, we examine the short‐term saving action of making efforts, the medium‐term saving action of replacing appliances, and the long‐term saving action of undertaking renovations. Second, we consider not only the physical characteristics of households but also behavioral characteristics, such as their understanding of the importance of energy saving and willingness to save energy. Third, in our analysis, we assume that appliances and housing facilities have the electricity‐saving capability and service‐providing capability. While previous studies focus on the former, consumers in reality consider both capabilities. Fourth, we consider the optimization by households and include broad types of appliances and renovations. Using a multivariate ordered probit model with data on 518 Japanese households in 2012, we obtain the following results. First, in addition to the demand response, the effort level is determined by behavioral, rather than by physical characteristics. Second, the motivation behind appliance replacement is durability, rather than electricity‐saving and service‐providing capabilities. Third, appliance replacement is enhanced by an understanding of the importance of energy saving, rather than by the willingness to save energy. Households can replace appliances because of social pressure, even if they are not so concerned about saving energy. Fourth, households are willing to renovate housing facilities even though they pay a higher cost for the greater saving capability rather than for the service‐providing capability. However, such renovation is not influenced by internal incentives, but by physical aspects of the house, such as size, age, and type.     

On the impact of the tests for serial correlation upon the test of significance for the regression coefficient

Monte Carlo methods are used to investigate the relationship between the power of different pretests for autocorrelation, and the Type I error and power of the significance test for a resulting two-stage estimate of the slope parameter in a simple regression. Our results suggest it may be preferable to always transform without pretesting. Moreover we find little room for improvement in the Type I errors and power of two-stage estimators using existing pretests for autocorrelation, compared with the results obtained given perfect knowledge about when to transform (i.e., given a perfect pretest). Rather, researchers should seek better estimators of the transformation parameter itself.     

Transactions Accounts and Loan Monitoring

We show that transactions accounts, by providing ongoing dataon borrowers’ activities, help financial intermediariesmonitor borrowers. This information is most readily availableto commercial banks, which offer these accounts and lendingtogether. We find that (1) monthly changes in accounts receivableare reflected in transactions accounts; (2) borrowings in excessof collateral predict credit downgrades and loan write-downs;and (3) the lender intensifies monitoring in response. Thisis evidence on a key issue in financial intermediation—thereis an advantage to providing deposit-taking and lending jointly.But this advantage may have fallen as the cost of communicationhas declined. (JEL G10, G20, G21)