Habit formation in state-dependent pricing models: Implications for the dynamics of output and prices

This paper examines the role of habit formation in a standard state-dependent pricing (SDP) model. Incorporating habit formation helps the SDP model to generate hump-shaped and more persistent output responses under a monetary shock. More importantly, incorporating habit formation causes dramatic changes in firm-level pricing behaviors and, as a result, the aggregate price index.     

The Institutionalization of Fair Trade: More than Just a Degraded Form of Social Action

The context of economic globalization has contributed to the emergence of a new form of social action which has spread into the economic sphere in the form of the new social economic movements. The emblematic figure of this new generation of social movements is fair trade, which influences the economy towards political or social ends. Having emerged from multiple alternative trade practices, fair trade has gradually become institutionalized since the professionalization of World Shops, the arrival of fair trade products in the food industry, and the establishment of an official “fair trade” label. With the strength that this institutionalization has generated, fair trade can now be considered a real trade system that questions, as much as it renews, the traditional economic system. In parallel, this transformation has exacerbated the tensions within the movement, which can be characterized as a clash between a “radical, militant” pole and a “softer, more commercial” one. However, it is not the actual institutionalization of fair trade which is being debated among fair trade actors on either side of the fence, but rather the challenges inherent in finding an economic institutionalization acceptable to social economic movements. Therefore the institutionalization process of fair trade should not be seen as mere degradation of social action, but rather as typical of the institutionalization process of new social economic movements. If we need to worry about the highjacking and alteration of the fair trade movement by the dominant economic system, the opposite is no less likely, as new social economic movements contribute to an ethical restructuring of markets.     

Detecting earnings management using cross-sectional abnormal accruals models

This paper examines specification and power issues in relation to three models used to estimate abnormal accruals. In contrast to the majority of prior work evaluating models estimated in time-series, we examine the performance of cross-sectionally estimated models. In addition to testing the standard-Jones (Jones, 1991) and modified-Jones (Dechow et al., 1995) models, we also develop and test a new specification, labelled the ‘margin model’. Consistent with prior US research employing time-series specifications of the two Jones models, our findings suggest that each of the three cross-sectional models are well specified when applied to a random sample of firm-years. However, the margin model appears to generate relatively better specified estimates of abnormal accruals when cash flow performance is extreme. Analysis of the models' ability to detect artificially induced earnings management indicates that all three procedures are capable of generating relatively powerful tests for economically plausible levels of accruals management (e.g., less than 10% of lagged total assets). Regarding their relative performance, the standard-Jones and modified-Jones models are found to be more powerful for revenue and bad debt manipulations. In contrast, the margin appears to be more powerful at detecting non-bad debt expense manipulations.     

Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Parameter Reduction in Claims Reserving

Abstract

We present an application of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method to the important problem of setting claims reserves in general insurance business for the outstanding loss liabilities. A measure of the uncertainty in these claims reserves estimates is also needed for solvency purposes. The RJMCMC method described in this paper represents an improvement over the manual processes often employed in practice. In particular, our RJMCMC method describes parameter reduction and tail factor estimation in the claims reserving process, and, moreover, it provides the full predictive distribution of the outstanding loss liabilities.     

To fear or not to fear? Applying the social amplification of risk framework on two environmental health risks in Singapore

Abstract

Smoke haze and dengue fever seasons were nationwide environmental health risk events that plagued Singapore between April and June 2013. Although relatively harmless compared to dengue fever, people in Singapore were visibly more disturbed by smoke haze. They engaged in preventive behaviors such as frantic purchasing of protective masks or staying indoors most of the time. Such reactions hint at the possibility of the social amplification of risk, a term coined to explain irrationally high public concerns over relatively minor risk issues, due to the visible nature of the risk event or people’s reactions to it. The current study aims to confirm the social amplification of risk for the haze event, as well as to test for the underlying reasons behind this phenomenon. Among the antecedents explored were the influence of information channels (traditional media and social media) on risk perception, negative affect, information seeking, and information sharing on the enactment of preventive behaviors. Data were collected from a sample of 343 college students through an online questionnaire. Results supported the presence of social amplification of risk for the haze event, and social media exposure was found to overshadow the influence of traditional media exposure on risk perception, negative affect, information seeking, information sharing, and preventive behaviors.     

Involvement, satisfaction, and brand loyalty in a small business services setting

Considerable resources are expended annually on building business brands, yet the literature is virtually silent on brand loyalty in a business setting. This study examines the relationship between attitudinal loyalty and behavioral loyalty in a business services context, and attempts to identify two key antecedents of loyalty in this context. In particular, little is known about small businesses as customers, despite their significant contribution to the economies of developed nations. A longitudinal design is implemented, and data are captured on both attitudinal loyalty and subsequent loyalty behaviors (i.e., actual purchase behavior). The findings demonstrate the value of conceptualizing and measuring both attitudinal and behavioral components of brand loyalty. Specifically, the results indicate that attitudinal loyalty mediates the effects of the antecedents studied (category involvement and purchase satisfaction) on behavioral loyalty. Implications for marketing theory and practitioners are discussed, and possible directions for future research are sketched.     

Optimal Risk Transfer: A Numerical Optimization Approach

Capital efficiency and asset/liability management are part of the Enterprise Risk Management Process of any insurance/reinsurance conglomerate and serve as quantitative methods to fulfill the strategic planning within an insurance organization. A considerable amount of work has been done in this ample research field, but invariably one of the last questions is whether or not, numerically, the method is practically implementable, which is our main interest. The numerical issues are dependent on the traits of the optimization problem, and therefore we plan to focus on the optimal reinsurance design, which has been a very dynamic topic in the last decade. The existing literature is focused on finding closed-form solutions that are usually possible when economic, solvency, and other constraints are not included in the model. Including these constraints, the optimal contract can be found only numerically. The efficiency of these methods is extremely good for some well-behaved convex problems, such as Second-Order Conic Problems. Specific numerical solutions are provided to better explain the advantages of appropriate numerical optimization methods chosen to solve various risk transfer problems. The stability issues are also investigated together with a case study performed for an insurance group that aims capital efficiency across the entire organization.     

Robust multivariate portfolio choice with stochastic covariance in the presence of ambiguity

This paper provides the optimal multivariate intertemporal portfolio for an ambiguity averse investor, who has access to stocks and derivative markets, in closed form. The stock prices follow stochastic covariance processes and the investor can have different levels of uncertainty about the diffusion parts of the stocks and the covariance structure. We find strong evidence that the optimal exposures to stock and covariance risks are significantly affected by ambiguity aversion. Welfare analyses show that investors who ignore model uncertainty incur large losses, larger than those suffered under the embedded one-dimensional cases. We further confirm large welfare losses from not trading in derivatives as well as ignoring intertemporal hedging, we study the impact of ambiguity in that regard and justify the importance of including these factors in the scope of portfolio optimization. Conditions are provided for a well-behaved solution in general, together with verification theorems for the incomplete market case.     

TSFDC: A trading strategy based on forecasting directional change

Directional Change (DC) is a technique to summarize price movements in a financial market. According to the DC concept, data is sampled only when the magnitude of price change is significant according to the investor. In this paper, we develop a contrarian trading strategy named TSFDC. TSFDC is based on a forecasting model which aims to predict the change of the direction of market's trend under the DC context. We examine the profitability, risk and risk‐adjusted return of TSFDC in the FX market using eight currency pairs. The results suggest that TSFDC outperforms the buy and hold approach and another DC‐based trading strategy.     

Performance Effects of Setting a High Reference Point for Peer‐Performance Comparison

We conduct a field experiment, based on a registered report accepted by the Journal of Accounting Research, to test performance effects of setting a high reference point for peer‐performance comparison. Relative to providing the median as a reference point for online students to compare themselves to, providing the top quartile: damps performance for those below the median, boosts performance for those between the median and top quartile, and, in the case of outcome but not process comparison, boosts performance for those above the top quartile. We do not find that either reference point yields a greater average performance effect. However, providing the more effective reference point in each partition of initial performance yields a 40% greater performance effect than providing either reference point uniformly. Students access the online courses intermittently over the span of a year. Our effects derive from small portions of our treatment groups—5% in the case of process comparison and 26% in the case of outcome comparison—who accessed treatment and who were, on average, more active leading up to and during our intervention.