Dynamic adaptive transport policies for handling deep uncertainty

Many long-term transport policy decisions are made by assuming that (1) the range of possible futures is known well enough to predict future changes to the transport system, (2) there is enough knowledge regarding the correct transport system model to estimate policy outcomes, and (3) there is enough knowledge regarding the importance stakeholders currently assign to the various outcomes or will assign in the future. However, for long-term transport policy decisions these assumptions can often not be made, since decision makers, analysts, and experts do not know or cannot agree on (1) how the future will develop, (2) the system models, and/or (3) the value system(s) to be used to rank alternative policies. This paper presents a ‘dynamic adaptive’ approach to policymaking for long-term transport policies that aims at overcoming the shortcomings of traditional approaches for handling deep uncertainty. It allows adaptations in time as knowledge is gathered. The approach is illustrated with dynamic adaptive policies for solving various long-term problems in the fields of road, rail, and air transport.     

Policy Implications of the Trade and Wages Debate

This paper examines the choice of policies to redistribute income in response to an increase in inequality caused by a rise in the differential wage paid to skilled labor compared with unskilled labor. The main issue is whether the appropriate policy response depends on whether the cause of the increased skill differential is 'trade'—increased competition with low-skilled workers abroad—or technological change. The analysis is conducted within the context of a two-sector Heckscher–Ohlin trade model augmented to allow endogenous determination of the level of skill.     

The antecedents and consequences of customer-centric marketing

As we enter the twenty-first century, the marketing function remains concerned with serving customers and consumers effectively. The authors propose that just as the marketing function gradually shifted from mass marketing to segmented marketing in the twentieth century, it will increasingly move toward customer-centric marketing in the next century. In the practice of customer-centric marketing, the marketing function seeks to fulfill the needs and wants of each individual customer. The antecedents of customer-centric marketing are the increasing pressure on firms to improve marketing productivity, increasing market diversity in household and business markets, and technology applicability. On the basis of the shift toward customer-centric marketing, the authors expect increased importance of marketing as a “supply management” function, customer outsourcing, cocreation marketing, fixedcost marketing, and customer-centric organizations. This article highlights the implications of customer-centric marketing as well as the boundary conditions that will affect its adoption. Jagdish N. Sheth is the Kellstadt Professor of Marketing in the Gouizeta Business School at Emory University. He has published 26 books and more than 200 articles in marketing and other business disciplines. His book,The Theory of Buyer Behavior (with John A. Howard), is a classic in the field of consumer behavior and is one of the most cited works in marketing. His other books includeMarketing Theory: Evolution and Evaluation (with David Gardner and Dennis Garrett) andConsumption Values and Market Choices: Theory and Applications (with Bruce Newman and Barbara Gross). Rajendra S. Sisodia is Trustee Professor of Marketing at Bentley College. Previously, he was an associate professor of marketing and director of executive programs at George Mason University and an assistant professor of marketing at Boston University. He has a Ph.D. in marketing from Columbia University. He has published more than 40 articles in journals such asHarvard Business Review, Journal of Business Strategy, Marketing Letters, andMarketing Management. He has also authored about two dozen cases, primarily on strategic and marketing issues in the telecommunications industry, as well as a number of telecommunications industry and company analyses. Arun Sharma is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Miami. He has published more than 30 articles in marketing and his interests are in the area of market and marketing evolution.     

SPECIAL INTERESTS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF MEXICO

Financial liberalization is often believed to enhance economic growth. Yet in many cases a few powerful incumbents seem to capture most of the gains from the reform. In this paper, I construct a model with endogenous formation of special interest groups that could reap most of the benefits of financial liberalization. In particular, these groups lobby to limit entry by other firms, while taking advantage of improved borrowing opportunities. I then use the model to study the Mexican financial liberalization of 1988. Analysis of firm‐level panel data on manufacturing plants reveals patterns suggested by the model. Specifically, large firms in more concentrated or more corrupt sectors benefit more from liberalization. In addition, domestically owned firms gain more than firms with foreign ownership. I also propose a new way to measure corruption at the industry level based on the Mexican 10% profit sharing rule.     

Valuation Effects of Greek Stock Dividend Distributions

This study analyses the price reaction to stock dividend distributions by firms listed on the Athens Stock Exchange on both the announcement and the ex‐dividend day. It also analyses earnings per share, dividends per share and trading volume in the pre‐ and post‐announcement periods. The findings show statistically insignificant abnormal returns on both the announcement and the ex‐dividend day. The analysis does not reveal any significant change in earnings per share and dividends per share, but it does reveal a significant decline in the market‐adjusted trading volume in the post dividend period. The findings, based on a different institutional environment, expand the empirical evidence on the value effects of stock dividends.     

The Predictive Ability of Direct Method Cash Flow Information

This research examines the predictive ability of direct method cash flow information for firms that use the direct method in their cash flow statements. We use cross sectional and pooled time series regressions to predict operating cash flow data and assess relative predictive ability. Principal findings are: (1) past period direct method cash flow data predict future operating cash flow better than indirect method cash flow data; (2) past period direct method gross operating cash flows predict future net operating cash flow better than past period net operating cash flow; (3) measurement error exists in estimates of direct method operating cash flows from other financial statement data; (4) past operating cash flows predict future operating cash flows better than earnings and accruals.     

Energy consumption by Russia’s population and service industry in the context of global trends

This paper analyzes energy consumption by population and service industry in developed countries and Russia in 1990–2005. The main global trends in energy consumption by population and service industry are shown. The compliance of Russia’s energy consumption figures to these trends is determined. The results of predictive estimates of the dependence of per capita energy consumption by population and service industry on the level of economic development are presented.