Changes in the fiscal stance and the composition of public spending

We consider the impact of both cyclical and structural changes in the fiscal stance on public spending composition for a panel of EU countries, including individual components of public investment. We find that both cyclically induced and structural changes in the fiscal stance affect the composition of public spending, with fiscal tightening of both types increasing the relative share of investment and loosening favouring consumption expenditure. Of the components of public investment, infrastructure and redistribution respond to cyclical changes in the fiscal stance, while investment in hospitals and schools responds most clearly to structural changes.     

Heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators for spatial autoregressive models

In the presence of heteroskedasticity, conventional test statistics based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator lead to incorrect inference results for the linear regression model. Given that heteroskedasticity is common in cross-sectional data, the test statistics based on various forms of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrices (HCCMs) have been developed in the literature. In contrast to the standard linear regression model, heteroskedasticity is a more serious problem for spatial econometric models, generally causing inconsistent extremum estimators of model coefficients. This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the heteroskedasticity-robust generalized method of moments estimator (RGMME) for a spatial econometric model with an unknown form of heteroskedasticity. In particular, it develops various HCCM-type corrections to improve the finite sample properties of the RGMME and the conventional Wald test. The Monte Carlo results indicate that the HCCM-type corrections can produce more accurate results for inference on model parameters and the impact effects estimates in small samples.     

Trading-up on unmet expectations? Evaluating consumers’ expectations in online premium grocery shopping logistics

Geography and retail store locations are inherently bound together; this study links food retail changes to systemic logistics changes in an emerging market. The later include raising income and education, access to a wide range of technologies, traffic and transport difficulties, lagging retail provision, changing family structure and roles, as well as changing food culture and taste. The study incorporates demand for premium products defined by Kapferer and Bastien [2009b. The Luxury Strategy. London: Kogan Page] as comprising a broad variety of higher quality and unique or distinctive products and brands including in grocery organic ranges, healthy options, allergy free selections, and international and gourmet/specialty products through an online grocery model (n?=?356) that integrates a novel view of home delivery in Istanbul. More importantly from a logistic perspective our model incorporates any products from any online vendors broadening the range beyond listed items found in any traditional online supermarkets. Data collected via phone survey and analysed via structural equation modelling suggest that the offer of online premium products significantly affects consumers’ delivery logistics expectations. We discuss logistics operations and business management implications, identifying the emerging geography of logistic models which respond to consumers’ unmet expectations using multiple sourcing and consolidation points.     

Security in a sea of insecurity: job security and intention to stay among service sector employees in Turkey

This article examines the association between job security and intention to stay for those who are employed in Turkey. There is a high level of unemployment in the country and many workers there are concerned about their job security. Job security refers to the objective dimensions of continuous contract, working full-time hours and paid and unpaid overtime. Job security also refers to the subjective dimension of perceived job security. We surveyed 407 employees in banking and related sectors' call centres, five-star hotel front-line staff and airline cabin crews. Results show that objective dimensions of job security are not associated with intention to stay. However, perceived job security is significantly and positively associated with intention to stay. We recommend that human resource managers focus on the perceived job security aspect of employment to keep valuable employees with the company.     

What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation varies with the economic environment. Using readability statistics and content analysis, we study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks across three continents during the recent decade. We uncover significant and persistent differences in clarity over time and across countries. However, identifying determinants of clarity that are robustly relevant across our sample of central banks proves elusive. Overall, our findings suggest that a single model for clarity of central bank communication is not appropriate. Rather, when studying clarity of communication, country-specific and institution-specific factors are highly relevant.     

Assessing Productivity Gains from International Trade in a Small Open Economy

Empirical evidence suggests that exporter firms tend to charge higher markups than non-exporters due to trade barriers. The exporters’ markup premium, however, may disappear in a special case, namely when the home country is small relative to its trade partners and trade barriers are low. This can be because competition is more intense in the large export destination than in the small home country, so that firms are able to set higher markups for locally sold products but not for exports. This paper provides empirical evidence on the validity of this special case by estimating markups for firms in Luxembourg who generally export to larger countries. The estimated negative markup premium for exporters has important implications for the productivity measurement. In a sufficiently small open economy, exporters’ productivity may be biased downward, when the firm-level markup variation is not controlled for in the productivity estimation. The bias in the productivity estimates further leads to the inaccurate conclusion that openness to international trade lowers allocative efficiency.     

What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of central bank monetary policy reports. We evaluate their economic content by comparing verbally reported inflation factors with factors identified from a simple new Keynesian model. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the model-identified ones, marking high-quality inflation reports. Although sample bank reports on average identified inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varied.     

Auditing and the Purification of Blame

Although public sector special audit and performance audit are frequently involved in blame, very few studies (save for Radcliffe 1997) provide detailed empirical accounts on how auditing participates in blame allocation. This study sets out to study one case of blame allocation by describing and characterizing the origins of failure and antecedents leading to the need for blame allocation, the institutional entities and arrangements that participate in the blame game, and how these entities, including the supreme audit institution, are mobilized in the processes of blame allocation. Applying a case methodology with Actor–Network Theory principles, the study extends Hood's (2002, 2007) research on blame and blame avoidance strategies by showing how a blame‐frame evaluates and allocates blame. The contribution of the paper is in four parts: first, it reveals the mechanisms that cause scapegoating of particular people and the role of auditors as experts in such mechanisms; second, it assists to develop an understanding of some factors at the core of the “accountability paradox” noted by Roberts (2009); third, it contributes to explanations as to why failing public sector reforms survive controversy and scandal since a scapegoating process can “reboot” reforms by erasing the reform's problems; and fourth, it demonstrates that an understanding of blame can be a useful addition to Actor–Network Theory.