Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates changes to the macroeconomic transmission mechanism in Turkey following a major reform of monetary policy in the early 2000s. We use a Threshold VAR (TVAR) framework to test for and then estimate a model with endogenous transitions between regimes. We detect two regimes, with a clear transition between them in 2003–4. The pre-reform regime is characterized by high inflation, passive monetary policy and persistent responses to shocks. The post-reform regime is characterized by low inflation, active and credible monetary policy and markedly less persistent responses to shocks. Using a model that contains sufficient variables to capture diverse transmission mechanisms, working through the real exchange rate, domestic credit and monetary policy, we find evidence of sharp changes in transmission mechanisms. Post-reform, the response of Turkey to macroeconomic shocks has changed to be similar to those in other modern, market-orientated economies.     

Changes in the fiscal stance and the composition of public spending

We consider the impact of both cyclical and structural changes in the fiscal stance on public spending composition for a panel of EU countries, including individual components of public investment. We find that both cyclically induced and structural changes in the fiscal stance affect the composition of public spending, with fiscal tightening of both types increasing the relative share of investment and loosening favouring consumption expenditure. Of the components of public investment, infrastructure and redistribution respond to cyclical changes in the fiscal stance, while investment in hospitals and schools responds most clearly to structural changes.     

Heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators for spatial autoregressive models

In the presence of heteroskedasticity, conventional test statistics based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator lead to incorrect inference results for the linear regression model. Given that heteroskedasticity is common in cross-sectional data, the test statistics based on various forms of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrices (HCCMs) have been developed in the literature. In contrast to the standard linear regression model, heteroskedasticity is a more serious problem for spatial econometric models, generally causing inconsistent extremum estimators of model coefficients. This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the heteroskedasticity-robust generalized method of moments estimator (RGMME) for a spatial econometric model with an unknown form of heteroskedasticity. In particular, it develops various HCCM-type corrections to improve the finite sample properties of the RGMME and the conventional Wald test. The Monte Carlo results indicate that the HCCM-type corrections can produce more accurate results for inference on model parameters and the impact effects estimates in small samples.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Long-run risk-return trade-offs

Excess market returns are correlated with past market variance. This dependence is statistically mild at short horizons (thereby leading to a hard-to-detect risk-return trade-off, as in the existing literature) but increases with the horizon and is strong in the long run (i.e., between 6 and 10 years). From an econometric standpoint, we find that the long-run predictive power of past market variance is robust to the statistical properties of long-horizon stock-return predictive regressions. From an economic standpoint, we show that, when conditioning on past market variance, conditional versions of the traditional CAPM and consumption-CAPM yield considerably smaller cross-sectional pricing errors than their unconditional counterparts.     

In search of efficient network structures: the needle in the haystack

Searching for efficient networks can prove a very difficult analytical and even computational task. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using the genetic algorithms (GA) technique to identify efficient network structures in the case of non-trivial payoff functions. The robustness of this method in predicting optimal networks is tested on the two simple stylized models introduced by Jackson and Wolinsky (1996), for which the efficient networks are known over the whole state space of the parameters’ values. This approach allows us to obtain new exploratory results in the case of the linear-spatialized connections model proposed by Johnson and Gilles (Rev Econ Des 5:273–299, 2000), for which the efficient allocation of bilateral connections is driven by contradictory forces that push either for a centralized structure around a coordinating agent, or for only locally and evenly distributed connections. Murat Yıldızoğlu gratefully acknowledges the support of the CCRDT program of Aquitaine Region.