A Model of Optimal Dynamic Oil Extraction: Evidence From a Large Middle Eastern Field

We model the economically optimal dynamicoil production decisions of a representative country whose oilfields resemble the largest developed oil field in Saudi Arabia,Ghawar. A government-controlled enterprise may base its oil productiondecisions on criteria other than maximization of the presentdiscounted value of profits. In particular, oil production decisionsare likely to reflect many political, strategic and geopoliticalmotives of the government. Our analysis of the optimal economicdecisions nevertheless enables one to assess the extent to whichlong-run value maximization is being followed. This in turn allowsone to judge the costs that political decisions are imposingin terms of foregone economic output, government revenue andforeign exchange. These costs ought to be of interest to policy-makerswithin Saudi-Arabia and also to external parties interested inmodifying Saudi pricing and production decisions.     

Product diversification and attitudes toward risk in agricultural production

In this article we analyze the relationship between risk-avoidance behavior and economic jointness in a multi-output agricultural technology. We focus on farmer specific heterogeneity in attitudes towards risk-taking, while treating production uncertainty as unobserved stochastic error that is common to all region specific farms. We furthermore utilize a new flexible functional form, the Constant Elasticity of Transformation, Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Generalized Leontief (Behrman, Lovell, Pollak, and Sickles, [1992]) which has the appealing property of relative flexibility while ensuring proper curvature properties of the estimated multi-output technology over a larger sample region of the price/quantity space than a flexible form such as the Generalized Leontief [Diewert, 1971].Our empirical study deals with small-scale agriculture in the Indian Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), partly because of the importance of yield-related risk in this region, but also because we have measures of farmer specific risk attitudes in the SAT data. Our modeling approach allows for the calculation of the shadow cost of farmer specific risk attitudes in terms of foregone profits, while at the same time controlliing for the technical factors that give rise to multi-output production in the absence of risk. We are thus able to estimate these opportunity costs while modeling a multiple output technology in which cost complementarities can lead to diversified production and in which joint production is not always undertaken.     

Time Series Analysis of Strategic Pricing Behavior in the US Airline Industry

A positive relationship betweencompetitive pressure and technical efficiency has been demonstratedby several studies; other studies hold forth that airline marketsbehave strategically. We bring these two literatures togetherby presenting a time series methodology to examine strategicpricing behavior and discussing the implications for airlineefficiency. We find evidence of dynamic, route-level, parallel( i.e. strategic) pricing despite highly variable price structures.A stable price relationship is consistent with successful coordinationof dynamic oligopolists and may highlight those routes wheresignificant market power exists. In light of previous research,this indicates that the airlines on these routes may not be attainingmaximum technical efficiency. For policy makers, this methodologyis useful for analyzing other markets which behave strategically.     

A nonlinear multivariate error components analysis of technology and specific factor productivity growth with an application to the U.S. Airlines

This study outlines a nonlinear model of technology and specific factor productivity growth and uses the model to analyze a new panel of sixteen domestic carriers in the U.S. airline industry over 35 quarters from 1970.I to 1978.III. We outline mapping procedures which allow construction of the production surfaces implied by the translog cost function used in our analysis. To our knowledge this study is the first to estimate such a general nonlinear multivariate error components model using full-information maximum likelihood.     

The Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Technical Efficiency Innovations: Evidence from the US Airline Industry

This paper analyzes the association between two firm performance measures: stock market returns and relative technical efficiency. Using linear programming techniques (Data Envelopment Analysis and Free Disposal Hull), technical efficiencies are calculated for a panel of eleven US airlines observed quarterly from 1970–1990. A relationship, between efficiency news in a quarter and stock market performance in the following two months, is found. A risky arbitrage portfolio strategy, of buying firms with the most positive efficiency news and short-selling those with the worst news during this time frame, results in zero beta risk yet yields annual returns of 17% and 18% for the two methodologies.     

PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS SOFTWARE: AN EXPLORATORY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL SURVEY OF THE OPTIONS

The software available to implement and carry out efficiency analysis is crucial for the diffusion of efficiency frontier techniques among applied researchers and policy makers. The implementation of up‐to‐date productivity and efficiency analysis is indeed important to advance our knowledge in many fields, ranging from the public and regulated sectors to the private ones. This contribution fills a gap in the existing literature and surveys the currently available options to estimate a variety of frontier methodologies using either general or dedicated programs. We outline directions for future research.     

A multi-product cost function for physician private practices

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the production of physician services using a multi-product cost function. Prior studies examine the physician production process in a theoretical setting and do not provide empirical insight. We expand upon the theoretical work in the literature by specifying a four-product generalized Leontief cost function for physician services that recovers measures of marginal cost, scale, scope, and elasticity. Our study is based on physician survey data from the 1998 American Medical Association Physician Socioeconomic Monitoring Survey and motivates a scientific framework for advancing the existing reimbursement fee schedule. Our analysis indicates that physician office visits are generally priced above marginal cost, implying there may be evidence of market power in physician private practices. Furthermore, our analysis lends to the policy debate over whether the use of a Resource-Based Relative Value Scale system is the most appropriate mechanism for facilitating Medicare reimbursements.