A note on stabilization and the World Bank

Balance-of-payments support has long been regarded as requiring only short-term or medium-term financing. It is not generally realized that the original intention at the time of Bretton Woods was that since balance-of-payments problems sometimes call for long-term financing, the World Bank should be empowered to provide such financing. The Bank's clear authority in this regard was allowed to atrophy, with the result that a major gap opened up in the operating functions of the Bretton Woods institutions.     

Binary choice and the supply of memory

In a binary choice experiment, the subject predicts on a series of trials whether a particular random event will or will not occur. The results of such experiments show systematic departures from expected value maximization, but to a degree that decreases as the reward for successful prediction increases. This paper proposes that the mechanism underlying these results involves the supply of memory. Subjects are influenced by the outcomes of recent trials, but tend to respond to the evidence in a larger number of trials as reward (and hence attention) are increased. Broader conceptual issues surrounding the notion of rational choice are also discussed.     

Attention allocation and input proportions

This paper presents an alternative to the standard microeconomic analysis of the effects of a change in relative input prices. Managers are portrayed as struggling to control costs. Because a rise in the price of a given input ‘promotes’ operations intensive in that input in the managerial attention priority list, it induces tighter control of such operations and thus a lower relative utilization of the input. The deterministic model analyzed is akin to stochastic models studied by Radner and Rothschild.     

Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model

We propose an econometric model for the transmission mechanism in Brazil after the inflation target regime (IT) implementation. We follow the statistical approach based on the LSE methodology by means of the Spanos (J Econom 44:87–105, 1990) categorization. Our proposed model includes the ratios of the debt and primary surplus to the GDP representing the government fiscal effort. We identify two long run relationships that produce new information on how to evaluate the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate links, respectively, with the output gap and the nominal inflation derived from the IS and the interest rule theoretical models. Such specification explores the role played by fiscal variables in monetary transmission; considering the government fiscal effort, a relevant issue for Brazil. We were also able to identify a third long run relationship that might help to uncover how output gap is related not only with nominal variables but also with the debt to the GDP ratio.     

Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Management Tool

The financial industry, including banking and insurance, is undergoing major changes. The (re)insurance industry is increasingly exposed to catastrophic losses for which the requested cover is only just available. An increasing complexity of financial instruments calls for sophisticated risk management tools. The securitization of risk and alternative risk transfer highlight the convergence of finance and insurance at the product level. Extreme value theory plays an important methodological role within risk management for insurance, reinsurance, and finance.     

The Evolution of Wood-based Industries in Brazil and their Means of Securing Wood

This paper analyses the evolution of wood-based industries in Brazil and evaluates the methods they use to secure wood. Only industries that consume roundwood are analysed. These industries are grouped into three categories: charcoal-based industries; paper and pulp industries; and lumber and panels industries. The structure-conduct-performance paradigm together with transaction cost theory and game theory are used in the analysis. Special attention is paid to historic changes in the wood-based industries' structures, technologies, locations and market orientations brought on by changing wood availability. This paper also analyses the different ways that a predicted wood scarcity will affect each wood-based industry. The paper ends by suggesting an alternative policy to increase the supply of roundwood in the market and, consequently, support the continued viability and expansion of wood-based industries in Brazil.