Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

The paper documents a robust and interesting relationship between the real domestic price of oil and real effective exchange rates for Germany, Japan and the United States. It also offers an explanation of why the real oil price captures exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and why such shocks could be the most important factor determining real exchange rates in the long run.     

Assessing Benefits from Department of Health and National Health Service Research & Development

Public services in the UK are increasingly expected to account for their outputs and performance. This article describes a retrospective evaluation of the benefits from the R&D funded by a regional office of the NHS Executive. The methods adopted enabled the various elements of the region's R&D portfolio to be examined and provided a basis for the development of a plan for regular monitoring. The proposals for implementation are now also feeding into a debate as to how health services R&D might best be monitored nationally in a way that is compatible with the norms and practices of research in other contexts.     

Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows

Abstract:   This article examines the ability of current accounting data to explain future cash flows for UK firms, as disclosed under FRS1 (1991). Rather than examining price data — from which cash flow implications have to be inferred — we follow the more direct approach used in several recent US studies, in which actual future cash flow data are examined. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the OLS regression framework employed by Barth et al. (2001) . We provide a replication of their main OLS analysis, and then extend this to deal with fixed effects and time trends in the levels of cash flow data. Our study finds that the disaggregation of earnings into cash flows and accruals, generates superior explanatory power with regard to future cash flows.     

中国存在走向硬着陆的风险

[美国《时代》周刊11月24日]最近几周从中国传来的消息很吓人。几乎每天都有关于罢工和示威的报道，当中有些是暴力的，有些参与人数上万人。数以百万计的工人正要失业，经济指示器似乎预兆着更为惨淡的前景，10月电子行业生产下降4％，这是十年来首次下降。甚至连看似永不满足的石油需求也在下降：中国国家石油公司近日表示，由于工业生产放缓，最近几个月的需求“大幅度”下降，而且还会进一步下降。     

Fertility,social class,gender, and the professional model: statistical explanation and historical significance

In 2012 Barnes and Guinnane published a revised statistical analysis of the critical evaluation of the official 1911 social class model of fertility decline that was presented in chapter 6 of Szreter's Fertility, class and gender in Britain, 1860–1940 (FCG). They argue that the official model of five ranked social classes is, after all, a satisfactory statistical summary of the fertility variance found among the married couples of England and Wales at the famous 1911 fertility census, and so they conclude that, pace Szreter, the official model provides a satisfactory account of the nation's fertility decline as one of social class differentials. It is acknowledged here that Barnes and Guinnane have deployed superior statistical techniques. However, it is pointed out that FCG identified fundamental problems with the design of the 1911 official model. It was a social evolutionary model privileging male professional occupations, not a modelling of recognized social class theory at the time or since. In FCG it was therefore termed ‘the professional model’. The central historiographical claim of FCG is re‐affirmed: that in order to study fruitfully the historical relationship between social class and fertility decline, an alternative approach is needed which explicitly integrates gender relations with social class.     

Wine Tourism as an Opportunity for Tourism Development: Examples of Good Practice in Slovenia

The authors discuss wine tourism activities in the context of general tourism development in Slovenia. The country’s winegrowing areas have developed traditionally important viticulture, a relatively intensive production of typical grape varieties and in some cases also a distinct entrepreneurial spirit, which consequently reflects in tourism and regional development, based on diverse cultural heritage and natural values. Three Slovene wine regions are divided into nine wine districts with their own identities and more or less distinct terroirs. Despite a several centuries’ long tradition and a rich wine culture, it is evident that in national tourism strategies and development plans, wine tourism still does not occupy the position that it probably deserves, although most of the documents stress its potential for local or regional development. On the other hand, the authors recognize a significant interest among winemakers and tourism professionals for strategic cooperation and systematic approach to develop wine tourism in the selected destinations. The authors therefore focus on some paradoxes and emphasize examples of good practice at the national, regional, and local levels.     

Ethical Orientation and Awareness of Tourism Students

The tourism industry is one of the largest industries in the world, and despite recent events that have made its operating environment more complex, the industry continues to grow [Theobald, 2005, Global Tourism, 3rd edn., Butterworth-Heinemann/Elsevier]. Commensurate to the size of the industry is a growth in the number of students pursuing degree courses in tourism around the world. Despite an increasingly sophisticated literature, the relative recency of the industry and its study has meant little attention has been paid in the ethics literature to the dilemmas facing tourism managers and its students. Based on interviews with senior members of the tourism industry six scenarios are developed with pertinence to the challenges faced by industry practitioners today. This paper then applies the Multidimensional Ethics Scale [Reidenbach and Robin, 1990, Journal of Business Ethics, 9, 639–653] to tourism students at three prominent universities in the U.K., Canada and Australia. In total, 438 responses are achieved. The results have importance for the instruction of tourism students for the future, but also in informing decisions about the tools tourism destinations can effectively employ to control the future direction of the industry     

Risk,balanced skills and entrepreneurship

This paper proposes that risk aversion encourages individuals to invest in balanced skill profiles, making them more likely to become entrepreneurs. By not taking this possible linkage into account, previous research has underestimated the impacts of both risk aversion and balanced skills on the likelihood individuals choose entrepreneurship. Data on Dutch university graduates provide an illustration supporting our contention. We raise the possibility that even risk-averse people might be suited to entrepreneurship; and it may also help explain why prior research has generated somewhat mixed evidence about the effects of risk aversion on selection into entrepreneurship.     

Unfinished business: The new approach to assessing vertical restraints

Conclusions  The new approach to assessing the competitive effects of vertical agreements is to be welcomed. For too long, European competition law on vertical restraints has been dominated by the “block-exemption dependency culture” that has stifled discussion about economic effects and cut down the number of reasoned decisions the Commission has been forced to issue. There is however a long way to go before a fully coherent policy on vertical agreements is developed, and this paper has highlighted some areas where the current views on the application of the new approach are either misconceived or incomplete. In particular, there remains a danger that the number of decisions will be stifled by excessive reliance on market share tests. Under the new regime, there should be a strong onus on the Commission and national competition authorities both to develop and extend the economic thinking contained in its Guidelines and to produce reasoned decisions that set out what agreements will be viewed as acceptable and those which will not.     

EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System

In recent years the bipolar multilateral trading system of the post-war years has given way to a multipolar alternative. Although many specifics have yet to be determined, some contours of this new trade policy landscape are coming into focus. This article examines their implications for the EU's external commercial policy. Particular attention is given to both the state of business-government relations and the propensity to liberalise under the auspices of reciprocal trade agreements by Brazil, India, and China, the potential new poles of the world trading system. I thank John Curtis and Bob Wolfe for stimulating my thinking on this subject in a recent conversation on the multipolar trading system. I also thank Roderick Abbott, Richard Baldwin, Krishna Gupta, Bernard Hoekman, Patrick Low, and John Whalley for helpful comments on the first draft of this paper. I alone am responsible for the errors contained herein.