Exchange rates and order flow in the long run

Several recent papers have underlined the importance of microstructure effects in understanding exchange rate behavior by documenting stable long-run relationships between cumulated order flows and spot exchange rates. This stands in contrast to the widely-studied failure of exchange rates to conform to the long-run behavior implied by “conventional” macroeconomic models and is consistent with the prediction of micro-structure models. We re-examine the evidence for stable long-run relationships. We find that such evidence exists only for a small number of the major currencies we examine and that it is statistically fragile. We conclude that this implication of microstructure models does not fit the data as well as previous studies suggest.     

The new science of sales force productivity

For years, sales managers at many companies have relied on top performers and sheer numbers of sales reps to stay competitive. But while they may have squeaked by on this wing-and-a-prayer technique, their sales teams haven't thrived the way they once did. Today's most successful sales leaders are taking a more scientific approach. Savvy managers are reshaping their tactics in response to changing markets. They are reaching out to new customers in innovative ways. And they are increasing productivity by helping the reps they already have make the most of their skills and resources. Leaders who take a scientific approach to sales force effectiveness have learned to use four levers to boost their reps' productivity in a predictable and manageable way. First, they systematically target their firms' offerings, matching the right products with the right customers. Second, they optimize the automation, tools, and procedures at their disposal, providing reps with the support they need to boost sales.Third, they analyze and manage their reps' performance, measuring both internal processes and results to determine where their teams' strengths and weaknesses are. Fourth, they pay close attention to sales force deployment--how well sales, support, marketing, and delivery resources are matched to customers. These four levers can help sales leaders increase productivity across the board, the authors say, though they have the greatest impact on lower-ranked performers. The overall effect of increasing the average sales per employee can be exponential; it means a company won't have to rely on just a few talented individuals to stay competitive. This is especially important because finding and keeping star salespeople is more difficult than ever. What's more, managers who optimize the sales forces they already have can see returns they never thought possible.     

Price-Wage Dynamics and Inflation in Socialist Economies: Empirical Models for Hungary and Poland

This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation intransitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experiencein Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centeredon the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics ofinflation. Further incorporating a number of features specificto socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamicprice and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equationsallow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreignprices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreignprices matter, but developments on the cost side are criticalin relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the pricelevel to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence ofconventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requiresthat nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, featureprominently in any stabilization program adopted by reformingsocialist economies.     

Decision Support Systems in Marketing

The practical application of decision support systems in marketing is still in its infancy, even though academic research has been recommending the use of such systems for years. This is largely due to the lack of a single, generally applicable decision support system. The specific requirements and problems of management are too dissimilar to make the development of one universal decision support system feasible. However, improved PC performance, enhanced market survey methods such as conjoint measurement, and further developed programming tools permit the varying requirements to be fairly flexibly met. The following article describes state-of-the-art know-how regarding the practical utilization of such systems, and addresses the preconditions for employing them. We have included many examples gathered from our own experience with numerous applications.     

Latino families report lower child injury rates than white families

Latino children have lower visit rates to emergency departments and primary care physicians than white children in the USA. Using a nationally representative household survey, this study asked whether parental report of injury was also lower for Latino children, after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, health status and health care access factors. Data were obtained on injuries for which medical advice or treatment was received from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 1997 to 2003. Using the multistage probability design of NHIS, annual rates and adjusted odds of childhood injury report by race and ethnicity were calculated. Respondents reported lower rates of injury for Latino children (6.0 (95% CI 5.3-6.8)/100 person-years) than white children (13.4 (12.7-14.2)/100 person-years). Lower injury rates were mainly due to lower rates of sports injuries and accidental falls. Latino children had lower odds of reported injury than white children, even after adjusting for multiple factors (odds ratio 0.7; 95% CI 0.6-0.8). Lower odds of injury report among Latino children are independent of direct measures of demographic, socioeconomic, health status and health care access factors and indirect measures of acculturation including respondent language and country of origin. Potential explanations include lower exposure to risk, greater child supervision, reporting bias, differences in cultural attitudes toward seeking of health care and reduced health care access that cannot be explored in NHIS due to the form of the current questions. Further research is needed to investigate cultural differences in risk exposure, child supervision and seeking of injury care.     

Endogenous Games and Mechanisms: Side Payments Among Players

We characterize the outcomes of games when players may make binding offers of strategy contingent side payments before the game is played. This does not always lead to efficient outcomes, despite complete information and costless contracting. The characterizations are illustrated in a series of examples, including voluntary contribution public good games, Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly, principal–agent problems, and commons games, among others.     

International Cartel Enforcement: Lessons from the 1990s

The enforcement record of the 1990s has demonstrated that international private cartels are neither relics of the past nor do they always fall quickly under the weight of their own incentive problems. Of a sample of forty cartels prosecuted by the United States and European Inion in the 1990s, twenty‐four cartels lasted at least four years. And for the twenty of the cartels in this sample where sales data are available, the annual worldwide sales in the affected products exceeded US$30 billion. Prevailing national competition policies are oriented towards addressing harm done in domestic markets, and in some cases merely prohibit cartels without taking strong enforcement measures. In this paper we propose a sequence of reforms to national policies and to international cooperation that will strengthen the deterrents against international cartels. Furthermore, aggressive prosecution of cartels must be complemented by vigilance in other areas of competition policy. If not, firms will respond to the enhanced deterrents to cartelisation by merging or by taking other measures that lessen competitive pressures.     

The effect of natural and built environmental characteristics on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana

Despite the benefits of walking as a means of travelling, walking can be quite hazardous. Pedestrian-vehicle crashes remain a major concern in Ghana as they account for the highest percentage of fatalities. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of both natural and built environmental features on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana. The study is based on an extensive pedestrian-vehicle crash dataset extracted from the National Road Traffic Accident Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana. Using a multinomial logit modelling framework, possible determinants of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity were identified. The study found that fatal crashes are likely to occur during unclear weather conditions, on weekends, at night time where there are no lights, on curved and inclined roads, on untarred roads, at mid-blocks and on wider roads. The developed model and its interpretations will make important contributions to road crash analysis and prevention in Ghana with the possibility of extension to other developing countries. These contributing factors could inform policy makers on road design and operational improvements.     

Judicial interpretation of the will of the state: A Hegelian perspective in the context of taxation

This paper draws upon Hegelian dialectic theory to understand the nature of the interrelationship between state, taxpayer, and the accounting profession. The paper proposes that this has been reconstructed from one founded upon neo-Kantian liberalism towards one in which components of political and civil society are co-opted by the state to minimize tax avoidance. Empirical evidence in the form of general anti-avoidance rules, court decisions, and judicial statements is provided to illuminate a process of fundamental redefinition of the roles of the judiciary and the accounting profession vis a vis the state. One of the principal functions of critical accounting theory is to question the political legitimacy of regimes of accounting; the implications of this redefinition are hypothesized in terms of this function, critiquing the changing relationship between the state and the taxpayer in the context of tax policy. The paper theorizes the consequences of this process for the accounting profession.