Geography,demography, and economic growth in Africa

This paper presents the effects of climate, topography, and natural ecology on public health, nutrition, demographics, technological diffusion, international trade and other determinants of economic development in Africa. The goal of this paper is to emphasize the need for intensified research on the issues at the intersection of ecology and human society. Geography was given emphasis because of three reasons: the minimal gain from another recitation of the damage caused by statism, protectionism and corruption to African economic performance; negligence of the role of natural forces in shaping economic performance; and tailoring of policies to geographical realities. The paper also discusses the general problems of tropical development and the focus of Africa's problems in worldwide tropical perspectives; demographic trends in Africa; use of standard cross-country growth equations with demographic and geographic variables, to account for the relative roles of geography; and the future growth strategies and the need for urban-based export growth in manufacturing and services. Lastly, the authors provide a summary of conclusions and discuss the agenda for future research.     

Why do rich countries prefer free trade over free migration? The role of the modern welfare state

"According to traditional trade theory (Heckscher-Ohlin), free trade and free migration are equivalent measures of economic integration leading both to an equalization of factor prices. This prediction is in sharp opposition to the observed preference of rich countries for free trade over free migration. We provide an explanation for this inconsistency: the redistribution policies in the countries. Social welfare in countries with a relatively small number of low-skilled native workers is higher with free trade than with free migration due to redistribution of income towards immigrating workers."     

A new mandate for human resources

Should we do away with HR? In recent years, a number of people who study and write about business--along with many who run businesses--have been debating that question. The debate arises out of serious and widespread doubts about HR's contribution to organizational performance. Dave Ulrich acknowledges that HR, as it is configured today in many companies, is indeed ineffective, incompetent, and costly. But he contends that it has never been more necessary. The solution, he believes, is to create an entirely new role for the field that focuses it not on traditional HR activities, such as staffing and compensation, but on business results that enrich the company's value to customers, investors, and employees. Ulrich elaborates on four broad tasks for HR that would allow it to help deliver organizational excellence. First, HR should become a partner in strategy execution. Second, it should become an expert in the way work is organized and executed. Third, it should become a champion for employees. And fourth, it should become an agent of continual change. Fulfilling this agenda would mean that every one of HR's activities would in some concrete way help a company better serve its customers or otherwise increase shareholder value. Can HR transform itself on its own? Certainly not--in fact, the primary responsibility for transforming the role of HR, Ulrich says, belongs to the CEO and to every line manager who works with the HR staff. Competitive success is a function of organizational excellence, and senior managers must hold HR accountable for delivering it.     

Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure.     

The Effect of Junk Bond Defaults on Common Stock Returns

This paper examines the effect of junk bond defaults on common stock returns. The evidence indicates that stockholders uncover the signs of financial distress long before the default date. Stock prices fall sharply at the time of the default announcement. Although stocks of fallen angel sample recover slowly and steadily after the default announcement, stocks of the original-issue junk bond sample continue to decline. On average, bankrupt firms suffer larger negative stock returns than defaulted firms not only at the time of announcement, but also in both pre- and post-event periods.