Trade union growth in Ireland and the interdependence of the Irish and United Kingdom labor markets

This paper finds that the unemployment rate differential between Ireland and the United Kingdom is an important determinant of the rate of Irish trade union growth.     

Interdependence and dynamic linkages between the emerging stock markets of South Asia

The present article examines the dynamic linkages between the stock markets of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a temporal Granger causality approach by binding the relationship among the stock price indices within a multivariate cointegration framework. We also examine the impulse response functions. Our main finding is that in the long run, stock prices in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka Granger‐cause stock prices in Pakistan. In the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from stock prices in Pakistan to India, stock prices in Sri Lanka to India and from stock prices in Pakistan to Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is the most exogenous of the four markets, reflecting its small size and modest market capitalization.     

Excess demand for labor, unemployment, and theories of the Phillips curve

This article has two purposes. First, to examine the assumption that it is possible to map uniquely between unemployment and excess demand for labor; this assumption plays a key role in the theory of the Phillips curve. We show that as both unemployment and excess demand for labor are endogenous and simultaneously determined, in general it is not possible to obtain a unique mapping between unemployment and excess demand for labor and that the Lipsey and Barro and Grossman derivations of the Phillips curve are invalid. Secondly, the article recommends that wage, employment, and unemployment behavior be modelled using short-run supply and demand curves, that is, in a Marshall-Hicks temporary equilibrium framework.     

The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments

This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the international economy made by the OECD. Our large data set, comprising some 5500 pairs of forecasts and outcomes, includes one-, two-, and three-step ahead semi-annual forecasts of eight components of the balance of payments for the G7 economies over a 20-year period. There is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts. Although they are generally superior to naive and time-series predictions, there are some marked exceptions particularly as the forecast horizon lengthens. Forecasting error is overwhelmingly non-systematic. However, our study reveals numerous instances of forecasts which could be improved by a simple linear correction, or by incorporating information contained in known, recent forecast errors. The OECD's forecasts of services and private transfers, and official transfers are cause for particular concern: the accuracy of these forecasts is low, often below that of corresponding time-series forecasts, and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency.     

澳大利亚国企改革实践及对中国国企改革的启示

本文介绍了澳大利亚国企改革的私有化、开放市场等的具体进程,分析了改革对于效率、价格、社会服务、国有资产流失等方面的影响。尽管澳大利亚与中国有许多不同之处,但是两国国企改革中也有许多共同性的问题,文中就一些共性的问题,分析了澳大利亚国企改革对于中国国企改革的借鉴作用。