The Policy Choices and Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members

The results of an econometric exercise are presented, showing that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members appointed from outside the ranks of Bank of England staff (outsiders) react differently to forecasts of inflation and output than those appointed from within the Bank (insiders). All results are reinforced by the well‐established findings that, compared with outsiders, insiders choose higher interest rates, are more likely to vote as a bloc, and feature on the winning side of policy decisions more frequently. On the basis of these results, it is argued that the current MPC framework is biased toward the policy choices of insiders.     

The transition from products to solutions: External business model fit and dynamics

This article provides empirical evidence and contributes to theory building concerning business model fit and dynamics in the area of solutions business. Business models are seen in this context as going beyond considerations such as offerings and internal processes or even relationships, and as including network and market considerations. Indeed the paper highlights the fact that a business model is not firm-focused, nor dyad-focused, but rather network-, and even market-focused, demonstrating that a business model is not static, but dynamic. Manufacturer and customer continuously shift form and content of their respective business models to adapt both to the needs of the counterpart and to market context. A qualitative case study approach is adopted, with subsequent content analysis. The case study relates to the aerospace industry with focus on a complex engineering firm, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, its customer — a national airline — and their network partners of various kinds. The data were collected through multiple face-to-face interviews with managers in both companies, as a part and parcel of a network of actors that influences and is influenced by the supplier–buyer relationship. Relationships over time between these firms and network partners are described, highlighting the interplay of products and services related to the provision of solutions. Findings highlight the dynamic nature of business models over the relationship lifecycle between supplier and customer in a complex engineering environment, and the need for reciprocal adjustment of models.     

BOLIVIA AND SOUTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE

The pending merger between the Andean Pact and Mercosur will advance South American free trade. Each member country will have to adjust to free trade and the various sectors of each economy will adjust differently. This article uses a specific factor model of production to predict output changes and income redistribution in Bolivia with South American free trade. Adjustments in outputs and factor prices in the model are substantial.     

Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time

When estimating finance panel regressions, it is common practice to adjust standard errors for correlation either across firms or across time. These procedures are valid only if the residuals are correlated either across time or across firms, but not across both. This paper shows that it is very easy to calculate standard errors that are robust to simultaneous correlation along two dimensions, such as firms and time. The covariance estimator is equal to the estimator that clusters by firm, plus the estimator that clusters by time, minus the usual heteroskedasticity-robust ordinary least squares (OLS) covariance matrix. Any statistical package with a clustering command can be used to easily calculate these standard errors.     

UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates*

This study uses a macro‐finance model to examine the ability of the gilt market to predict fluctuations in macroeconomic volatility. The econometric model is a development of the standard ‘square root’ volatility model, but unlike the conventional term structure specification it allows for separate volatility and inflation trends. It finds that although volatility and inflation trends move independently in the short run, they are cointegrated. Bond yields provide useful information about macroeconomic volatility, but a better indicator can be developed by combining this with macroeconomic information.     

Facilitating public participation in tourism planning on American Indian reservations: A case study involving the Nominal Group Technique

Tourism is frequently cited as a tool by which American Indians can strengthen the economies of their reservations. However, successful tourism development on such reservations requires effective tourism planning, and effective tourism planning requires public participation in the planning process. The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) has proved to be a useful group process in the tourism field but its application to tourism planning on American Indian reservations has been unexplored. This article helps to fill this knowledge gap by reporting on an NGT workshop conducted on the Lake Traverse Reservation of the Sisseton–Wahpeton Oyate (people, nation) in North and South Dakota, USA. Rich information on tourism development possibilities for three lakefront properties was obtained. Possible success factors are discussed and suggestions for conducting similar future workshops on American Indian reservations are advanced.     

Writing the differences: Poststructural ist pluralism,retextualization, and the construction of reflexive ethnographic narratives in consumption and market research

Representing social realities in a narrative form is central to the interpretive processes by which market‐oriented ethnographies are constructed. In recent years, the process of textualization has shifted from a taken‐for‐granted aspect of the ethnographic enterprise to a central focus of ethnographers’ reflexive considerations. This shift reflects the realization that textualization poses dilemmas of representation that can not be resolved through additional fieldwork or other methodological procedures. This paper addresses these workbench problems by devising an alternative narrative formretextualization‐based on a poststructuralist version of critical pluralistic analysis. We first discuss how non‐realist genres of ethnographic writing have emerged in response to a heightened sensitivity toward ideological positions embedded in research narratives. We then discuss how the use of retextualization can facilitate the development of reflexivity in consumption research by destabilizing the representational authority of the ethnographic text through expressions of divergence, dissensus, and contested interpretations.     

Institutional Pressures and an Evolving Forest Carbon Market

It is estimated that 87 million acres of forestland in the United States (US) is managed by private industrial forestland owners (nearly 14% of the forestland nationwide). Private industrial forestland owners include forest product companies, Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Current regulatory and voluntary carbon markets, as well as proposed national emission reduction legislation, in the US make provisions for substantial carbon offsets from domestic forestry projects. This research employs the theory of planned behavior by means of an online questionnaire in order to survey large industrial forestland owners (>30 000 acres) regarding intentions to manage forestland for carbon sequestration and trading. Quantitative results suggest that very few organizations (18%) were managing forestland for carbon values. Attitudes towards carbon sequestration and trading were significantly influenced by the managers' beliefs that emission reduction legislation would become law and that US forest carbon offsets can be used as a legitimate climate change mitigation tool. Qualitative results revealed that most organizations are taking a passive approach to carbon sequestration and trading until a suitable regulatory framework emerges and carbon prices provide the conditions for a sound investment. The researchers suggest that, given the size and scope of the climate change phenomenon as well as the multifaceted and unified mitigation strategy required to address it, the development of functional carbon markets will be an iterative process and may require a global carbon framework that reflects the globalized nature of the forest economy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Commercial Mortgage Pricing with Unobservable Borrower Default Costs

This paper develops a pricing model for commercial real estate mortgage debt that recognizes the influence of default transaction costs on the borrower's default decision. These costs are heterogeneous across borrowers and largely un-observable to the lender/investor at the time of origination or loan purchase. A recognition of these unobservable costs can explain why borrower default decisions may differ from those predicted by "ruthless" mortgage-default pricing models. We address the determinants of default choice and timing by replacing sharp default boundaries found in the ruthless models with "fuzzy" boundaries that account for investor uncertainty with respect to evaluating borrower default decisions. To implement our model, we estimate probabilities of default as a junction of time and net equity in the property. Then, given that default occurs, loss severities are modeled based on expected property value recovery net of foreclosure costs and time until the asset is actually sold. Under reasonable parameter value choices, resulting Monte Carlo simulations produce numerical mortgage price estimates as well as component default frequency and severity levels that realistically reflect default premiums and loss levels observed in the marketplace.