Sales expectations and inventory changes in retail trade

In this paper a single equation inventory investment model is estimated for the United States retail sector. Monthly data for the 1970s are utilized. In estimating the model it is alternatively assumed that expectations were formed according to a seasonal model, to perfect foresight, and to a narrowly rational expectations model. We find that a model in which expected sales and the expected rate of inflation are narrowly rational can explain most of the variation in retail inventory investment during the time period studied. The results of the estimation imply that retailers have a relatively short forecast horizon, that they can react quickly to either unexpected sales or to a deviation of actual from desired inventory stocks, and that an increase in the real of interest has a statistically negative impact on retail inventory investment.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ELDERLY PERCEPTIONS OF THE CONSUMER MOVEMENT*

The decade of the 1970s witnessed the passage of an unparallelled amount of legislation designed to protect the needs of disadvantaged and low income consumers, characteristics which describe many members of the elderly population segment. This research was designed to assess elderly perceptions of the market-place today and of the performance of businesses and government agencies in protecting and promoting their interest as buyers. The elderly, when compared to other population segments, showed a more negative attitude toward the accomplishments of the consumer movement and the role of businesses and government in protecting buyers than other population segments.     

Finance and growth in Africa: The broken link

While bank liabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa are found to follow (but not lead) economic growth, the link between bank credit and growth is altogether absent.     

On structural inelasticity of modal substitution in freight transport

At the European level there is an increasing focus on how freight transport can be moved from trucks on roads to more environmentally friendly modes such as rail and ship. A large proportion of the transport services between OD pairs, however, cannot be substituted since there is only one alternative available. The paper investigates the magnitude of this “structural inelasticity” of modal substitution in freight transport due to a sparser layout of rail and ship-based freight networks compared to road. In the analysis we use a recent Scandinavian freight demand model covering more than 800 zones. We find that the structural inelasticity is very significant - in particular for transportation over less than 500 km. Moreover, the inelasticity varies greatly with commodity groups and between OD pairs, and it depends strongly on the port and rail infrastructure. The results suggest that pure charging instruments (road pricing for trucks) in many regions will have limited mode substitution impacts. However, if combined with structural changes in terms of improved infrastructure for rail and ship, impacts may be greater.     

Is There Persistence in the Impact of Emergency Food Aid? Evidence on Consumption, Food Security, and Assets in Rural Ethiopia

We identify the impact of emergency food aid programs after the 2002 drought in rural Ethiopia on future welfare. Based on a difference-in-differences matching estimator, participation in food-for-work increases growth in total consumption and food consumption eighteen months after the drought. Separately, receiving free food raises growth in food consumption, but, surprisingly, negatively impacts food security. Food-for-work benefited households in the middle and upper tail of the consumption distribution, while the better-targeted free food program benefited the poorest. Evidence suggests these impacts demonstrate accumulated and persistent effects of food aid received in the first twelve months after the drought.     

PROBLEMS OF ADAPTATION OF PASTORAL BUSINESSES IN THE ARID ZONE*

With emphasis upon Central Australia, an assessment is made of the economic problems of pastoral firms in meeting the climatic conditions of the arid zone. Analysis ranges over the responsibility for conservation and drought planning, the inadequacy of a purely physical approach to conservation, the difficulties of station organization and management in the arid zone, the array of possible managerial strategies for meeting these difficulties, and the effect of social institutions on the choices avail. able to management.     

TOWARDS PRACTICAL GUIDELINES FOR MULTIPLE USE MANAGEMENT*

The general acceptance of multiple use as a desirable management goal has not been matched by practical guidelines to implement and achieve that goal. As Pearse [5] rightly noted, the most serious obstacles to applying multiple use principles are usually the lack of appropriate data and lack of established methodology. This study did not face prohibitive problems in valuing extra-market goods, but as with all multiple use studies, it did face the problem of applying the standard economic model of the multi-product firm. It is hoped this particular empirical application of the model contributes generally to the provision of guidelines for multiple use management.