Prof. Mr. Dr. Gerard Marius Verrijn Stuart

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Prof. Mr. Dr. Gerard Marius Verrijn Stuart 16 sept. 1893–25 oct. 1969

     

Analysis of the volatility’s dependency structure during the subprime crisis

In this article, we test the hypothesis of contagion amongst sectors within the United States’ economy during the subprime crisis. The econometric methodology applied here is based on the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (2002). Further, we applied several Lagrange multiplier (LM)-robust tests to test whether there were structural breaks in series’ dependency structures during the period of interest. Events theoretically classified as relevant to the crisis upshots as well as the interactions between the moments of the series were used as indicator functions to the referred structural breaks. The main conclusion of this study is that one can indeed observe contagion within almost all pairs of sectors’ indices. Thus, we conclude that the dependency structure of the sectors of interest has faced structural changes during the years of 2007 and 2008. Hence, diversification strategies as well as the risk analysis inherent to the portfolios’ management may have been drastically affected.     

The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions†

This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments. Having controlled for the various characteristics of inward investing firms, the projects and the regions, our results suggest that existing regional specialization is the single most important determining feature of where inward FDI locates. In addition, London is seen to benefit primarily by the immigration of new investments, the majority of which are related to service sector activities.     

Review article. Growth and stagnation in a two-sector model: Kaldor's Mattioli Lectures

Kaldor's Mattioli Lectures analyse a two-sector model with increasingreturns to scale (IRS) in industry and diminishing returns inagriculture (DR). This review article shows that (i) with IRSin industry, a long-run equilibrium growth path with strictlypositive growth rates may exist even if agriculture is subjectto DR; (ii) the industrial sector is the 'engine of growth'if agricultural investment is determined passively by availablesaving; and (iii) if one introduces a separate agriculturalinvestment function, both positive and negative agriculturalsupply shocks may lead to stagnation, thus vindicating Kaldor'semphasis on commodity price stabilisation.     

Output gap in Brazil: a real-time data analysis

Recent literature for developed economies has shown that output gap estimates go through important revisions over time, impairing their reliability in real time. We organize a real-time data set for Brazil’s GDP and assess the revisions of the output gap estimated by four different methods. Similar to the findings of studies for developed economies, the output gap revisions in Brazil are substantial in all methods, with frequent changes in the output gap sign. In general, both the GDP data revision and the effect of adding new observations to the sample are relevant sources of output gap revisions. However, differently from those studies, we cannot assert that the latter source is preponderant.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE‐LEVEL CAPS ON PUNITIVE DAMAGES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Under the standard economic model of torts, punitive damages correct for imperfect detection. Incorporating litigation costs into the model provides a justification for punitive damage caps. At the optimum, caps balance deterrence against the cost of litigation. Empirical testing of the model is performed via Cox proportional and parametric hazard analyses, using a panel dataset from 1981 to 2007. The results reveal a positive relationship between legal services employment (a proxy for legal costs) and cap enactment, and a negative relationship between state gross state product (a proxy for damages) and cap enactment. Cap enactment is also influenced by political ideology. (JEL K13, K41, L51)     

A strategic environmental assessment method for agricultural policy in the UK

There are a number of significant environmental impacts that arise from agricultural practices that may be influenced by policy. A Strategic Environmental Assessment Method (SEAM) is described which aims to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural policy and aid the development of more sustainable policy formulation. The method addresses the issues of selecting appropriate performance criteria and measurements, and makes use of effect-damage functions and targets to determine the significance of potential impacts in relation to sustainability. A set of profiles is produced, describing the environmental performance of a specific policy. A confidence assessment system (CAS) is also described which provides details about the quality of the assessment and areas of uncertainty. SEAM provides information about impacts in simple format that can be easily used in decision making. It can identify environmental trade-offs and provides a holistic view that is essential when making decisions that affect the environment.