Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty

Forecasting the economic policy uncertainty in Europe is of paramount importance given the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. This paper evaluates monthly economic policy uncertainty index forecasts and examines whether ultra‐high frequency information from asset market volatilities and global economic uncertainty can improve the forecasts relatively to the no‐change forecast. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty provides the highest predictive gains, followed by the European and US stock market realized volatilities. In addition, the European stock market implied volatility index is shown to be an important predictor of the economic policy uncertainty.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time‐Varying Approach

This article investigates the time‐varying correlation between the EU12‐wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member‐countries based on Scalar‐BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980–2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronization correspond to major economic events that have taken place at a European level. In the main, business cycle synchronization until 2007 had moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency, suggesting that the common monetary policy was less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. However, as a result of the Great Recession of 2007 and the subsequent Eurozone Crisis, a number of periphery countries, most notably Greece, have experienced desynchronization of their business cycles with the EU12‐wide cycle. Nevertheless, for most countries, any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to a lack of cyclical synchronization.     

Evaluation of inequivalent projections of Hadamard matrices of order 24

Screening designs are useful for situations where a large number of factors (q) is examined but only few (k) of these are expected to be important. It is of practical interest for a given k to know all the inequivalent projections of the design into the k dimensions. In this paper we give all the (combinatorially) inequivalent projections of inequivalent Hadamard matrices of order 24 into k=3,4 and 5 dimensions, as well as their frequencies. Then, we sort these projections according to their generalized resolution, generalized aberration and centered L₂-discrepancy measure of uniformity. Then, we study the hidden projection properties of these designs as they are introduced by Wang and Wu (1995). The hidden projection property suggests that complex aliasing allows some interactions to be estimated without making additional runs.     

Are bank shareholders enemies of regulators or a potential source of market discipline?

In moral hazard models, bank shareholders have incentives to transfer wealth from the deposit insurer – that is, maximize put option value – by pursuing riskier strategies. For safe banks with large charter value, however, the risk-taking incentive is outweighed by the possibility of losing charter value. Focusing on the relationship between Tobin’s q and an ex ante measure of the failure probability, this paper develops a semi-parametric model for estimating the critical level of bank risk at which put option value starts outweighing charter value. From these estimates, we infer the prevalence of moral hazard. Examining publicly held bank holding companies (BHC) during the tumultuous 1986–1992 period, we find that shareholders’ risk-taking incentives were confined to a small fraction of highly risky institutions. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the inflection point at which banks begin to tilt in favor of moral hazard increased substantially in 1993–2005. These findings are encouraging to bank regulators and legislators because they indicate that tighter capital rules and more rigorous supervision introduced by several legislative initiatives in the 1990s have helped squeeze a lot of the moral hazard incentives out of the banking system.     

On universal admissibility of scale parameter estimators

A characterization result of Kushary (1998) regarding universal admissibility of equivariant estimators in the one parameter gamma distribution is generalized to a scale family of distributions with monotone likelihood ratio. New examples are given, among them the F-distribution with a scale parameter. In particular, universal admissibility is characterized within the class of location-scale equivariant estimators of the ratio of the variances of two normal distributions with unknown means. In this context the maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be universally inadmissible by virtue of a general sufficient condition for universal inadmissibility of a scale equivariant estimator. Received: January 2000     

Orders and Organizations:

A BSTRACT . We explore the relevance to the theory of economic organization of the distinction introduced by Hayek between two kinds of social order: spontaneous orders and organizations. We argue that Hayek's ideas lead to an understanding of the business firm as a process, which comes very close to some of the core notions of the evolutionary theory of the firm, while they still view the firm as the outcome of a contract among asset owners. First of all, we put forth a simple conceptual schema in order to differentiate between contracts that lead to the formation of an organization and ordinary market contracts. We then explore the conditions for an understanding of the firm as a set of interconnected processes, rather than as an end state. Finally, we introduce the concept of purposeful direction as an important condition for the existence of the firm and we show the history-contingent character of the firm's growth.     

Justifying health IT investments: A process model of framing practices and reputational value

Despite important research contributions on the financial and operational dimensions of information technology (IT) value, justifying health IT (HIT) investments remains a difficult and enduring issue for IT managers. Recent work has expanded our understanding of HIT value, by focusing on the initial resource allocation stage, and through conceptualizations of value across multiple dimensions. Building on these developments, we adopt a performative perspective to examine the research question of how practitioners justify early stage HIT investments, with a focus on reputational value. We explored this question through a comparative field study of two hospital organizations in the English National Health Service (NHS). We found that practitioners' temporally orientated framing practices matter in justifying HIT investments, enacting different possibilities for reputational value. We develop a process model to explain these dynamics and highlight the mutability of reputational value, which can lead to different possibilities for restoring, enhancing, or maintaining reputation. We conclude by discussing the implications for justifying HIT investments.     

Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis

We study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time. We show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent's effective relative risk aversion, thus increasing her stock market exposure. Contrary to common intuition, an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets, even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant. The model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties.