Evaluation of inequivalent projections of Hadamard matrices of order 24

Screening designs are useful for situations where a large number of factors (q) is examined but only few (k) of these are expected to be important. It is of practical interest for a given k to know all the inequivalent projections of the design into the k dimensions. In this paper we give all the (combinatorially) inequivalent projections of inequivalent Hadamard matrices of order 24 into k=3,4 and 5 dimensions, as well as their frequencies. Then, we sort these projections according to their generalized resolution, generalized aberration and centered L₂-discrepancy measure of uniformity. Then, we study the hidden projection properties of these designs as they are introduced by Wang and Wu (1995). The hidden projection property suggests that complex aliasing allows some interactions to be estimated without making additional runs.     

Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty

Forecasting the economic policy uncertainty in Europe is of paramount importance given the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. This paper evaluates monthly economic policy uncertainty index forecasts and examines whether ultra‐high frequency information from asset market volatilities and global economic uncertainty can improve the forecasts relatively to the no‐change forecast. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty provides the highest predictive gains, followed by the European and US stock market realized volatilities. In addition, the European stock market implied volatility index is shown to be an important predictor of the economic policy uncertainty.     

The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013

We investigate the relationship of the market pricing of sovereign risk to default, through credit default swap (CDS) spreads for 16 Eurozone countries during 2008q1–2013q3. We take into account, through appropriate non-linear generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations the endogeneity problem. We focus on ‘fiscal space’ (DEBT or FISCAL), and the downgrade announcements (DOWN). We find DEBT (FISCAL) to have significant (insignificant) effects on the CDS concave function, as well as, DOWN in a linear one. It has also been confirmed significant pricing discrimination between South and West Euro Area Periphery (SWEAP) and the core Eurozone, highlighting asymmetries discovered either by the respective size of estimated DEBT coefficients or by the significant effects of DOWN that have only on CDS of SWEAP countries. The current account balance or the inflation rate, as well as, relevant interaction terms seem not to affect the spreads of the EMU. These findings, together with the estimated structural change on CDS pattern in early 2011, coinciding with significant either the DOWN in the pre-crisis period (2008–2010) or the DEBT in the post-crisis one (2011–2013) on the CDS, seem to be consistent with self-fulfilling crises literature and the inherent vulnerability of EMU, on other words, the ‘fragility hypothesis of the Eurozone’.     

Is the Cyprus Pound Real Effective Exchange Rate Misaligned? A BEER Approach

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the real effective exchange rate of the Cyprus pound is misaligned by generating measures of the equilibrium rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. Several measures of the equilibrium exchange rate were derived and used to check for the existence of exchange rate misalignment. The results suggest that, during the 1990s, the actual real effective exchange rate and the various equilibrium measures generated move closely together and there is no evidence of any significant and persistent misalignment. However, the empirical evidence suggests persistent overvaluation during the 1980s.     

Injury-related absenteeism and job satisfaction: insights from Greek and UK data

Most of the literature on absenteeism suggest that absence from work is a complex issue influenced by multiple causes, both of personal and of organizational nature. Job satisfaction has also been identified as one of the factors affecting an employee's motivation to work attendance. There is no universal agreement concerning the relationship between absenteeism and job satisfaction. Some research have found no correlation between these two variables, whereas other studies indicate a weak relationship between these two variables. It has also been suggested that absence and job satisfaction might be more strongly related under some conditions, for instance in the case of blue-collar workers. There is a lack of attention in the literature, however, to injury-related absenteeism, which is a particular type of absenteeism. This paper attempts to fill this gap and examines the effect of job satisfaction on injury-related absenteeism by using Greek and UK data. The empirical results suggest that there is a negative relationship between injury-related absenteeism and job satisfaction. The paper also discusses possible policy measures towards reducing injury-related absenteeism.     

Whole of government accounts developments in the UK: conceptual,technical and timetable issues

When published, the UK's much-delayed whole of government accounts (WGA) will provide valuable incremental information on UK public finances. The WGA will complement existing fiscal indicators such as net debt, which excludes public assets other than liquid financial assets, by establishing a more complete picture. Emphasising the relevance of accounting consolidation to the public sector, this article assesses potential uses of WGA and discusses why the UK WGA timetable for publication—originally 2005–06 and now 2009–10—slipped so badly. A series of conceptual and technical issues is examined, including how the WGA boundary is defined; the emphasis the UK places on alignment with the national accounts; and the proposed treatment of taxes paid by entities within the WGA consolidation.     

Loan underpricing and the provision of merger advisory services

This paper investigates the primary and secondary syndicated bank loan market to analyze the effect on pricing when the financial institution commingles syndicated lending with merger advisory services. In particular, we investigate the connection between the acquirer’s choice of financial advisor in a merger and future financing commitments. We find evidence of underpricing of syndicated bank loans in both the primary and secondary market. In the primary market, we show that non-acquisition loans granted by merger advisors to acquiring firms after the merger announcement date are charged a lower all-in-spread relative to acquisition loans if there has been a prior lending relationship. Consistent with this finding, we find that syndicated bank loans for non-acquisition purposes arranged by the acquirer’s advisor after the merger announcement date trade in the secondary market at a significant discount. Since the terms on these non-acquisition loans are not set upon merger announcement, they are most subject to risk shifting and underpricing agency problems. These findings offer evidence consistent with the existence of loss leader and potentially conflicted loans (priced at below-market terms) that are offered by the acquirer’s relationship bank advisor in order to win merger advisory business.     

Research Joint Ventures

Abstract.  Inter-firm collaboration is not new. What is new is that such collaboration has exploded during the past couple of decades, in parallel to the intensification of international competition. Moreover, the nature of collaboration has changed, shifting from peripheral interests to the very core functions of the corporation, and from equity to non-equity forms of collaboration. Importantly, cooperation focusing on the generation, exchange, and/or adaptation of new technologies has risen at very fast rates. Research joint ventures, the focus of this paper, belong in the latter category.
The proliferation of RJVs has created extensive interest among economists, business analysts, and policy decision-makers and led to the profusion of literature on the topic. This paper critically reviews the literature in industrial economics and strategic management that deals with RJV partner motives and RJV outcomes. The paper categorizes the different streams of this literature and indicates the state-of-the-art, synthesizes important understandings, and suggests key nodes of a future research agenda.     

Fairness and reflexivity in the Cyprus bail-in

The Cyprus debt crisis provides some unique lessons. By the time an assistance program was agreed with the Troika of international lenders, the problem had become so complex that a depositor bail-in was implemented to safeguard financial stability. The bail-in was an ad hoc solution applied for the first time in the eurozone but is now the blueprint for dealing with future banking crises. This paper examines the events for the 18-month period before the two eurogroup meetings on Cyprus in March 2013, and the resolution and restructuring of the two systemic banks of the country with depositor bail-in. We show how delays in dealing with the crisis exacerbated the problem but also how the tools brought into solve the problem had significant unintended consequences that fit the reflexivity principle. Available evidence questions the validity of confidential studies guiding the policy decisions on depositor haircut and supports the argument that the bail-in, as implemented in Cyprus, violated international principles of fairness. We use the analysis to draw some lessons on the use of bail-in for future crises.