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  总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Given the growing need for managing financial risk, risk predictionplays an increasing role in banking and finance. In this studywe compare the out-of-sample performance of existing methodsand some new models for predicting value-at-risk (VaR) in aunivariate context. Using more than 30 years of the daily returndata on the NASDAQ Composite Index, we find that most approachesperform inadequately, although several models are acceptableunder current regulatory assessment rules for model adequacy.A hybrid method, combining a heavy-tailed generalized autoregressiveconditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) filter with an extremevalue theory-based approach, performs best overall, closelyfollowed by a variant on a filtered historical simulation, anda new model based on heteroskedastic mixture distributions.Conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViaR) models perform inadequately,though an extension to a particular CAViaR model is shown tooutperform the others.  相似文献   
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In this study, we empirically analyze the determinants of heterogeneity in rating assessments across different segments of the European loan market. We conduct a benchmarking analysis using rating information on European corporate obligors from nine major Austrian banks that have a large share of foreign lending, particularly in the Central and Eastern European region. We provide evidence that, generally, overall heterogeneity among rating outcomes for foreign markets is higher than for domestic markets. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneity increases in transition economies and those markets where Austrian bank involvement is relatively low. Our evidence supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in the assessment of credit risk is determined not only by the objective quality of information, which is deemed to be lower in transition economies, but also by the subjective access to information about obligors measured by the level of domestic bank involvement in the respective foreign market. Furthermore, we quantify potential effects on regulatory capital requirements.  相似文献   
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This paper analyzes the impact of WLAN technologies for incumbent MNOs based on an empirical cross-country study of the players in the public WLAN-hotspot market using the theory of disruptive innovation and theoretical extensions for the industry- and country-level. The main research question to be analyzed is whether and why PWLAN has shown a disruptive or sustaining impact trend for incumbent MNOs in the hotspot markets of Germany, the UK, and the USA in recent years. The results imply that incumbent MNOs and new entrants have taken advantage of the opportunity provided by PWLAN, but the market success of both types of players varies between the countries analyzed. Incumbent MNOs dominate in Germany but not in the UK and the USA. The reasons for these country-specific differences were further investigated, and the results suggest that the analysis of disruptive potential in telecommunications needs to include country- and firm-specific factors, which are, again, largely influenced by the local regulation.  相似文献   
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The present paper introduces a methodology for the semiparametric or non‐parametric two‐sample equivalence problem when the effects are specified by statistical functionals. The mean relative risk functional of two populations is given by the average of the time‐dependent risk. This functional is a meaningful non‐parametric quantity, which is invariant under strictly monotone transformations of the data. In the case of proportional hazard models, the functional determines just the proportional hazard risk factor. It is shown that an equivalence test of the type of the two‐sample Savage rank test is appropriate for this functional. Under proportional hazards, this test can be carried out as an exact level α test. It also works quite well under other semiparametric models. Similar results are presented for a Wilcoxon rank‐sum test for equivalence based on the Mann–Whitney functional given by the relative treatment effect.  相似文献   
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R&D externalities can imply ranges of aggregate increasing returns to scale in R&D. As a consequence several equilibria can exist involving different numbers of firms and different R&D investment levels. In a theoretical model the equilibrium dynamics are analyzed, showing that cyclical fluctuations of the number of firms and R&D investment may be expected, and that the long-run equilibrium is highly sensitive to investors' initial beliefs. The model is tested empirically using a unique database comprising competing firms in various R&D races.  相似文献   
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A new approach to allocate environmental responsibility, the ‘value added-based responsibility’ allocation, is presented in this article. This metric allocates total environmental pressures occurring along an international supply chain to the participating sectors and countries according to the share of value added they generate within that specific supply chain. We show that – due to their position in global value chains – certain sectors (e.g. services) and countries (e.g. Germany) receive significantly greater responsibility compared to other allocation approaches. This adds a new perspective to the discussions concerning a fair distribution of mitigation costs among nations, companies and consumers.  相似文献   
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The amount of customisation to an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has always been a major concern in the context of the implementation. This article focuses on the phase of maintenance and presents an empirical study about the relationship between the amount of customising and the resulting support effort. We establish a structural equation modelling model that explains support effort using customisation effort, organisational characteristics and scope of implementation. The findings using data from an ERP provider show that there is a statistically significant effect: with an increasing amount of customisation, the quantity of telephone calls to support increases, as well as the duration of each call.  相似文献   
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