Management Guidance Bevorzugen professionelle Kapitalmarktteilnehmer wirklich Punktprognosen?

Mit Hilfe der Management Guidance wird durch kapitalmarktorientierte Unternehmen in unterschiedlicher Form über die voraussichtliche Entwicklung wesentlicher Gesch?ftszahlen berichtet. Vorliegende empirische Arbeiten gehen einheitlich davon aus, dass eine Punktprognose der erwarteten zukünftigen Kennzahlen anderen Formen vorzuziehen ist. über die diesbezüglichen Pr?ferenzen professioneller Kapitalmarktteilnehmer liegen bisher jedoch kaum gesicherte Erkenntnisse vor. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht daher auf Basis einer Fragebogenstudie die entsprechenden Pr?ferenzen dieser wichtigen Zielgruppe. An der Befragung nahmen insgesamt 123 Kapitalmarktteilnehmer teil, insb. Sell- und Buy-Side-Analysten sowie Asset Manager. Entgegen den bisherigen Annahmen wird eine Intervallprognose als hilfreicher angesehen als eine Punktsch?tzung. Weitergehende Analysen erlauben Einblicke in die Pr?ferenzen einzelner Berufsgruppen.     

Die Auswirkungen der steigenden Lebenserwartung auf die Prävalenz der Pflegebedürftigkeit in Deutschland

As a consequence of population ageing the number of persons in need of care will rise considerably in the decades to come. While the rise per se is uncontroversial a still open question is whether the increase in longevity will raise or lower the age-specific prevalence of long term care. As there are both empirical studies finding an increase or a decrease of prevalence as life expectancy increases, most existing projections of the number of persons in need of care are based on the assumption of constant age-specific prevalence rates. While this question cannot be answered ultimately from the current point of view, this paper gives some guidance on the range of the future increase in cases. To this end we first analyze the interplay of changes in mortality, incidence and prevalence within a flow figure model. This approach allows for a better understanding of the conditions which must be met for an increase or a decline of the prevalence of care in the future. Based on German data we then adapt a scenario approach to analyze the model's quantitative implications for the prevalence of care and the number of nursing cases in the future. Our results indicate that the number of nursing cases will range between 2,6?m and 7?m persons in the year 2060. Nonetheless, based on the existing empirical findings for Germany and other industrialized countries, a doubling on 4?m persons in need of care seems to be the most realistic scenario.     

THE ADVERSE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON PRIVATE CONSUMPTION IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS

Empirical evidence shows that government spending crowds in private consumption, a Keynesian phenomenon. The current, state of the art, New Keynesian models based on optimizing households and firms are not able to predict such a result. In this paper, we critically analyse fiscal policy in these models using a graphical framework as well as a formal model. Extensions aimed at generating crowding in, like useful government spending or rule of thumb consumers, turn out to be inappropriate. We argue that introducing productivity enhancing government spending could potentially lead to crowding in.     

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of energy (oil) on the growth and welfare of a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of energy price shocks depend upon the economy’s internal production structure and its access to the world financial market. We find that the effect on the long-run growth rate depends heavily on the former and is independent of the latter. The effect of accessibility to the world financial market on long-run welfare depends heavily on the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the energy price to the elasticity of substitution.