A note on allocations attainable through nash equilibria

This note reexamines the issue of attaining efficient resource allocations as noncooperative equilibria of a strategic game. Contrary to the spirit of earlier work on this subject, it is shown that there is an entire class of choice rules, aside from the Walrasian one, which are implementable in Nash equilibrium stategies.     

Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle

The co-movement of revenue growth across different industries changes over the business cycle. Using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues, aggregated to industry data from 1969 to 2009, we demonstrate that the correlation is the highest during a crisis. Our findings of structural changes in correlation have implications for diversification decisions in portfolio analysis and risk management. The higher correlation in crisis periods increases the downside risk and bankruptcy probability of business portfolios. We test the hypothesis that average correlations are significantly different, by applying permutation and bootstrap techniques. As robustness checks, both correlations between industries and the aggregate market and correlations between earnings confirm our findings.     

Prediction markets for foresight

To navigate turbulent business environments, organizations have to develop foresight capacities that enable them to anticipate probable futures, respond rapidly to emerging changes, and support future oriented action. However, there are remaining barriers that impede a wider implementation of foresight. In particular, the necessities to deal with the future, anticipate change, enhance participation and reduce costs and complexity call for new methods to improve current foresight activities. In this paper, we introduce prediction markets to the field of foresight. Prediction markets are a structured approach to collect and aggregate information from groups and have recently gained attention in forecasting. Prediction markets go beyond simple forecasting and can contribute to foresight by providing advantages in terms of continuous and real-time information aggregation, motivation of participation and information revelation as well as cost-efficiency and scalability. We suggest four promising fields of application for prediction markets to enhance foresight: (1) continuous forecasting and environmental scanning, (2) combining with deliberative approaches, (3) continuous idea generation and (4) expert identification. We conclude by considering prediction markets as a nascent and promising method for foresight and advocate for further research.     

Buchbesprechung

Buchbesprechung

Buchbesprechung     

“Why did I do this?”: Understanding leadership behavior through a dynamic five‐factor model of leadership

Leadership theories referring to complex adaptive system theory (CAS) describe leadership as a dynamic process of interdependent, cooperating agents. However, research on leadership behavior focuses mainly on the leader as an influencing, active agent. This article offers a different perspective by focusing on factors that influence leadership behavior. A dynamic five‐factor model of leadership is introduced, which identifies (1) the leader's individual competence, (2) the group, (3) the organization, (4) the context, and (5) the immediate situation as all influencing factors on leadership behavior. To address the problem of the procedural nature of leadership behavior, the dynamic five‐factor model is combined with a scenario‐based approach. The scenario approach focuses on situational developments in a given context, whereby a previous situation influences a leader's behavior in the subsequent situation. By integrating the dynamic five‐factor model into a scenario approach, one can understand a leader's behavior in its procedural nature. The practical usability of the dynamic five‐factor model and the scenario approach was assessed in a leadership development program with 81 military officers. Structured feedback from participants indicated that the model and the approach were perceived as helpful and relevant for understanding leadership behavior.