Evolution paths on the equilibrium manifold

In a pure exchange smooth economy with fixed total resources, we define the length between two regular equilibria belonging to the equilibrium manifold as the number of intersection points of the evolution path connecting them with the set of critical equilibria. We show that there exists a minimal path according to this definition of length.     

Estimating loss-given default through advanced credibility theory

The New Basel Accord allows internationally active banking organizations to calculate their credit risk capital requirements using an internal ratings based approach, subject to supervisory review. One of the modeling components is the loss-given default (LGD): it represents the credit loss for a bank when extreme events occur that influence the obligor ability to repay his debts to the bank. Among researchers and practitioners the use of statistical models such as linear regression, Tobit or decision trees is quite common in order to compute LGDs as a forecasting of historical losses. However, these statistical techniques do not seem to provide robust estimation and show low performance. These results could be driven by some factors that make differences in LGD, such as the presence and quality of collateral, timing of the business cycle, workout process management and M&A activity among banks. This paper evaluates an alternative method of modeling LGD using a technique based on advanced credibility theory typically used in actuarial modeling. This technique provides a statistical component to the credit and workout experts’ opinion embedded in the collateral and workout management process and improve the predictive power of forecasting. The model has been applied to an Italian Bank Retail portfolio represented by Overdrafts; the application of credibility theory provides a higher predictive power of LGD estimation and an out-of-time sample backtesting has shown a stable accuracy of estimates with respect to the traditional LGD model.     

Joint Ventures versus Contractual Agreements: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper, we empirically investigate the determinants of the governance form of strategic alliances. We use a database with 1,344 worldwide alliances in several industrial sectors. In contrast with previous empirical studies, we find that alliances undertaking R&D activities are more likely to use loose forms of organization (contractual agreements) than more hierarchical ones (joint ventures), and this result is even stronger when the alliance takes place in technologically sophisticated sectors. Moreover, we show that alliances between rival firms tend also to be organized with forms closer to arm’s length transactions. When the scope of an alliance is multidimensional or the alliance is an international one, however, firms prefer more hierarchical organizations such as joint ventures. This paper was partially written while the first author was visiting the University of the Basque Country. We would like to thank Reinhilde Veugelers and the project FWO spillovers 6.0131.98 at the Katholieke Universiteit of Leuven for the use of the K.U. database. Financial support from projects Progetto Giovani Ricercatori – 1999 Universitá di Udine, SEJ 2004-02172/ECON, 9/UPV 00035.321-13560/2001, UPV 00038.321-13503/2001 is gratefully acknowledged. We are also indebted to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

What do bank acquirers want? Evidence from worldwide bank M&A targets

What drives bankers to create larger and larger, often multinational banking groups? In this paper we investigate whether the targets in cross-border bank M&As are materially different from those banks targeted in domestic M&A deals. The main message of this paper is that, with few exceptions, domestic and foreign investors target similar banks. In particular, and contrary to what one might expect, bank size does not have a different effect on the probability of being a domestic or a cross-border target, instead it has a positive and highly significant effect in both cases. We find that the main differences between national and international M&As are the characteristics of the countries where the banks operate.     

Reducing the mean supply delay of spare parts using lateral transshipments policies

Lateral transshipment has been studied lately as a promising policy for increasing the performances of multi-echelon spare parts inventory system. By lateral transshipment spare parts can be moved from one location with excess inventory to another location, at the same echelon, in shortage, with the aim of reducing supply delays of spare parts. This paper will examine the relative effectiveness of two lateral shipments approaches in reducing the mean supply delay (MSD) of a non-repairable item, with respect to a classical policy of no lateral shipments. A simulation model of a two echelon supply network has been implemented and an experiment has been performed by varying different parameters of the supply network, such as the number of warehouses (locations at the lower echelon), the supply lead time from the central depot, the spare parts demand uncertainty, and the size variability of the warehouses. Results show appreciable reductions of MSD when lateral shipments are allowed with respect to the classical policy, in almost every network configuration.     

Arranger Certification in Project Finance

Using a sample of 4,122 project finance loans worth $769 billion arranged from 1991 to 2005, we demonstrate that certification by prestigious lead arranging banks creates economic value by reducing overall loan spreads compared to loans arranged by less prestigious arrangers. Banks participating in these loan syndicates, rather than the project sponsors, pay for this certification. They do so by allowing top tier arrangers to keep larger fractions of the upfront arranging fees. Results are robust to the correction for the endogenous choice of loans by prestigious arrangers and indicate that certification is even more valuable during periods of extreme financial stress.     

A Stock Flow Consistent Analysis of a Schumpeterian Innovation Economy

Schumpeter argued that boom and bust cycles are inherent to the rise of innovation and constitute an unavoidable consequence of the way the capitalist system reacts to the emergence of a wave of innovations. This contribution aims to describe Schumpeterian economic development in a ‘monetary theory of production’ framework, emphasizing the crucial role played by credit creation, conceived as ‘the monetary complement’ of innovation. By adopting a stock flow consistent analytical approach, we analyze both the structural change process triggered in the real economy by the emergence of innovation, and the monetary dynamics arising during the various stages of the development process.     

Socially responsible and conventional investment funds: performance comparison and the global financial crisis

We investigate the performance of socially responsible funds (SRFs) and conventional funds (CFs) in different market (geographical area and class size) segments during the period 1992–2012. From an unbalanced sample of more than 22 000 funds, we define a matched sample using a beta-distance measure to match any SRF with the ‘nearest neighbour’ CF in terms of sensitivity to risk factors. Using this matching approach and a recursive analysis, we identify several switch points in the lead/lag relationship between the two investment styles over time in different market segments. A relevant finding of our analysis is that SRFs played an ‘insurance role’ outperforming CFs during the 2007 global financial crisis.     

Safety Reloaded: Lean Operations and High Involvement Work Practices for Sustainable Workplaces

Starting from the recent quest to investigate the human side of organizational sustainability, this study applies a variety of regression analyses to investigate the effects of Lean Operations, High Involvement Work Practices, and management behaviors on occupational safety. It tests and finds support for the hypotheses that Lean Production systems, High Involvement Work Practices, and two specific management behaviors—workers’ capability development (coaching and teaching of workers) and empowerment (autonomy and participation of workers in developing their own job standards)—positively affect occupational safety. Furthermore, empowering behaviors positively moderate the effect of Lean Operations on workers’ safety. The study bridges sustainable operations literature with theories related to the ethical side of safety management, sustainable HRM, ethical leadership, and empowerment. In doing so, it contributes to the understanding of occupational safety as constitutive aspect of organizational sustainability.     

EXPLICIT IMPLIED VOLATILITIES FOR MULTIFACTOR LOCAL‐STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

We consider an asset whose risk‐neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local‐stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European‐style option prices and implied volatilities. We also establish rigorous error estimates for these quantities. Our implied volatility expansions are explicit; they do not require any special functions nor do they require numerical integration. To illustrate the accuracy and versatility of our method, we implement it under four different model dynamics: constant elasticity of variance local volatility, Heston stochastic volatility, three‐halves stochastic volatility, and SABR local‐stochastic volatility.