Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective

The recent literature on monetary policy design has emphasized the importance of equilibrium determinacy and learnability in the choice of policy rules. This paper contains an analysis of the learnability of the equilibrium in a class of simple, micro-founded models in which the policy authority uses a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. Unlike previous analyses, the model economy is not linearized about a steady state—instead, a global perspective is adopted. Globally, the nonlinear model economy can possess rational expectations equilibria other than the steady state consistent with the inflation target of the monetary authorities. These include a second, low inflation ‘liquidity trap’ steady state, periodic equilibria, and sunspot equilibria. The main results in the paper characterize the conditions under which these alternative equilibria maybe stable under adaptive learning, even when the policy rule obeys the Taylor principle. The stability of multiple equilibria is associated with policy rules which are forecast-based. An important finding is that backward-looking Taylor-type policy rules can guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the steady state associated with the inflation target of the monetary authority.     

Should Firms Going Public Enjoy Tax Benefits? An Analysis of the Italian Experience in the 1990s

In Italy tax benefits are granted to firms going public. However, does such tax relief really reduce the corporate tax burden? In this study we tackle the issue by considering 21 industrial firms that were listed on the Italian Exchange from 1995 to 1997 and enjoyed a temporary tax rate cut‐off. We find that the increase in the taxable income reported by these firms largely counterbalances the effect of the tax relief. We conclude that a tax rate cut‐off may not necessarily provoke a reduction in the tax burden for newly listed firms, since in the short term they report larger earnings compared with privately‐owned companies. We claim that this ‘induced’ effect is mainly due to: the significant improvement of operating performance in the year of the listing; the reduction of the debt tax shield; an increase in investment and more accounting transparency. Our findings suggest that tax relief for IPO firms does not necessarily mean a loss of revenue for the government.     

THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF SOIL CONSERVATION: THE FARMERS' VIEWPOINT

Most countries in Central America and the Caribbean depend heavilyon agriculture; efforts to sustain and improve the sector'sproductivity are therefore crucial to the region's economicdevelopment and to the welfare of its people. Land degradationis thought to pose a severe threat to the sustainability ofagricultural production. Yet despite long-standing concern aboutthis threat and dramatic claims of environmental damage, surprisinglylittle empirical analysis has been done on the causes and severityof land degradation problems in the region and on how best totackle them. Meanwhile, many of the conservation programs designedto address the problems have fallen short of expectations. Oftenfarmers have not adopted the recommended conservation practicesor have abandoned them once the project ended. The research presented in this article attempts to bridge theempirical gap, using cost-benefit analysis to investigate thenature and severity of the soil degradation problem and to assessthe cost-effectiveness of proposed solutions. Because soil degradationproblems tend to be site-specific, the analysis is rooted incase studies, and because conservation programs stand or fallon the participation of farmers, the study's main focus is onthe profitability of the measures and the deterrents to theiradoption from the farmers' point of view.      

Patent policy, patent pools, and the accumulation of claims in sequential innovation

We present a dynamic model where the accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We compare innovation activity under three regimes??patents, no-patents, and patent pools??and find that none of them can reach the first best. We find that the first best can be reached through a decentralized tax-subsidy mechanism, by which innovators receive a subsidy when they innovate, and are taxed with subsequent innovations. This finding implies that optimal transfers work in the exact opposite way as traditional patents. Finally, we consider patents of finite duration and determine the optimal patent length.     

The effects of unification: markets,policy, and cyclical convergence in Italy, 1861–1913

This paper uses time-series evidence on construction movements to examine the convergence of regional business cycles in the decades that followed Italy’s unification. The aggregate series point to cyclical convergence, but a sector-level analysis traces this result to the decline in differentiated “regional-policy” shocks. The regional market cycles diverged, as regions specialized in different sectors of production; market-cycle convergence is observed only within the “industrial triangle,” the regions of which also developed different specializations. This suggests that the balance between growing interdependence and growing differentiation is not general, as the current literature presumes, but specialization-specific.     

协调社会与产业的目标：药品定价中的议价模型

药品费用在世界许多国家快速增长，这激起了人们对药品定价的关注，因此许多国家都试图通过定价手段来达到降低药品费用的目的。各国对药品价格都有一定形式的规制，其中一种做法就是最高限价，即通过制定药品价格的上限以达到控制成本。     

Consistent calibration of HJM models to cap implied volatilities

This article proposes a calibration algorithm that fits multifactor Gaussian models to the implied volatilities of caps with the use of the respective minimal consistent family to infer the forward‐rate curve. The algorithm is applied to three forward‐rate volatility structures and their combination to form two‐factor models. The efficiency of the consistent calibration is evaluated through comparisons with nonconsistent methods. The selection of the number of factors and of the volatility functions is supported by a principal‐component analysis. Models are evaluated in terms of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample data fitting as well as stability of parameter estimates. The results are analyzed mainly by focusing on the capability of fitting the market‐implied volatility curve and, in particular, reproducing its characteristic humped shape. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:1093–1120, 2005     

Sick-leave and Other Job-related Health Issues from Labour Force Surveys Data

Most research into the relationship between health and work has been limited to ad hoc studies: few studies have been based on large-sample surveys directed to the general population. We propose here approaches to developing work-related health indicators from currently collected National Labour Force Surveys, in particular the Italian Labour Force Survey-ISTAT. Four potential indicators are proposed: temporary reduction in working ability (TRWA), continued reduction in working ability (CRWA), permanent inability to work (PIW), and exclusion from the active population (EAP). Our analysis indicates that CRWA and EAP are highest among manual workers, consistent with the well-described relationship between job class and health status. This approach provides an opportunity to monitor the relative health status of workers on a continuing basis using readily available, population-based data and to conduct additional analyses on the basis of occupational stratification.     

Labour market transitions and unemployment duration: Evidence from Bulgarian and Polish micro-data1

The segmentation of the labour market is one of the most striking characteristics of the transition process in Central and Eastern European countries. Not only do the young, unskilled workers and women face a high risk of unemployment, but joblessness also varies significantly geographically. This paper sheds some light on labour market segmentation in transition countries by analysing individual records of individuals registered at the labour offices of two Polish regions (Warsaw and Ciechanov and two Bulgarian regions (Sofia and Botevgrad) over the initial three to four years of the transition to a market economy. The empirical results confirm the existence of highly selective firing and hiring processes in the Polish and Bulgarian labour markets. Overall, unskilled or poorly educated workers have the highest probability of becoming unemployed and remaining without a job for a long period of time. We also analysed the determinants of unemployment duration across regions and over time using a piece-wise constant hazard model with multiple destinations, i.e. employment and exit from the labour force. The results suggest that the unemployed with a high education and previous experience in the private sector have a higher probability of getting a new job, especially in the more dynamic labour markets, while those without previous work experience tend to stay unemployed for a longer period of time and often leave the labour market. The econometric results also suggest that the reforms of the unemployment benefit systems have produced important effects on unemployment flows.     

The Provision of Finance to Innovation: A Survey Conducted among Italian Technology-based Small Firms

Financial constraints to the development of innovation are often considered one of the main impediments to high-technology firms seeking to expand and grow. In particular this is the case of small and medium size high-tech firms. In the U.S. and the U.K. a variety of sources of finance are available to the start-ups of innovative firms; in the other European countries, and particularly in Italy, these means are still uncommon so that the development of technology is often prevented. This paper, based on an empirical analysis on a survey of 46 small high-tech Italian firms, aims at exploring the problems experienced by small businesses in gaining access to debt and equity finance. The results highlight that traditional financial sources are inadequate to finance innovative projects. The questioned firms rely mainly on personal finance, and secondly on short term bank debt; they are truly involved in maintaining control over the firm activities and are willing to issue outside equity only if the new investors also provide non financial competencies. Among the 46 interviewed firms, only 10 are willing to be listed in the future on small firms' stock markets.