Through Trial and Error to Collusion*

In this article we study a very simple trial and error learning process in the context of a Cournot oligopoly. Without any knowledge of the payoff functions players increase, respectively decrease, their quantity as long as this leads to higher profits. We show that despite the absence of any coordination or punishing device this process converges to the joint‐profit‐maximizing outcome.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of secukinumab in ankylosing spondylitis from the Canadian perspective

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of interleukin (IL)-17A inhibitor secukinumab vs the currently licensed biologic therapies in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients from a Canadian healthcare system perspective.

Methods: A decision analytic model (semi-Markov) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab 150?mg compared to certolizumab pegol, adalimumab, golimumab, etanercept and etanercept biosimilar, and infliximab and infliximab biosimilar in a biologic-naïve population, over 60 years of time horizon (lifetime). The Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI 50) response rate was used to assess treatment response at week 12. Non-responders or patients discontinuing initial-line of biologic therapy were allowed to switch to subsequent-line biologics. Model input parameters (short-term and long-term changes in BASDAI and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index [BASFI], withdrawal rates, adverse events, costs, resource use, utilities, and disutilities) were obtained from clinical trials, published literature, and other Canadian sources. Benefits were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost and benefits were discounted with an annual discount rate of 1.5% for all treatments.

Results: In the biologic-naïve population, secukinumab 150?mg dominated all comparators, as patients treated with secukinumab 150?mg achieved the highest QALYs (16.46) at the lowest cost (CAD 533,010) over a lifetime horizon vs comparators. In the deterministic sensitivity analysis, results were most sensitive to changes in baseline BASFI non-responders, BASDAI 50 at 3 months and discount rates. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that secukinumab 150?mg demonstrated higher probability of achieving maximum net monetary benefit vs all comparators at various cost thresholds.

Conclusions: This analysis demonstrates that secukinumab 150?mg is the most cost-effective treatment option for biologic-naïve AS patients compared to certolizumab pegol, adalimumab, golimumab, etanercept and etanercept biosimilar, and infliximab and infliximab biosimilar for a lifetime horizon in Canada. Treatment with secukinumab translates into substantial benefits for patients and the healthcare system.     

Decentralised bargaining of working time in the German automotive industry

The article addresses the question whether or not the trend towards the decentralisation of collective bargaining on working time in Germany entails a loss in the binding power of industry‐level agreements. To this end, both working‐time agreements and practices are examined at the firm or establishment level in the automotive industry. Additionally, the article examines the extent to which workplace micro‐level changes are reflected in official statistics. The findings indicate that unions and works councils have taken on new roles preventing a widespread erosion of collective regulations.     

Strategic Trade Policy and Vertical Structure

We introduce intermediaries into the Brander-Spencer model of strategic trade policy. A key finding is that in regimes involving independent retailers, output competition and linear pricing (and two-part tariffs under certain restrictions), the optimal policy involves an export tax instead of a subsidy. If firms commit to vertical structure before governments commit to policy then under output competition firms choose integration, whereas if policy precedes structure then at least one firm chooses separation. Under price competition separation is a dominant strategy regardless of whether the structure decision is made before or after the policy decision.     

Determinants of smallholder farmers' participation in banana markets in Central Africa: the role of transaction costs

A bivariate probit model was employed to jointly and separately estimate banana market participation decisions of buying and selling households in Rwanda and Burundi using household survey data. Selectivity bias was corrected for estimating the transacted volumes using Heckman's procedure. The results showed that transaction cost‐related factors such as geographical location of households, market information sources, and travel time to the nearest urban center influence market participation. Non‐price‐related factors such as security of land tenure, labor availability, off‐farm income, gender of the household head, and years of farming experience had a significant influence on the transacted volumes. Output prices had a significant correlation with sales volume, indicating price incentives increased supply by sellers. Generally, the findings suggest that policies aimed at investments in rural road infrastructure, market information systems, collective marketing, and value addition of banana products may provide a potential avenue for mitigating transaction costs and enhancing market participation and production of marketed surplus by rural households.     

The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application

Credit and interest rate risk are the two most important risks faced by commercial banks in their banking book. In this paper we derive a consistent and comprehensive framework to measure the integrated impact of both risks. By taking account of the repricing characteristics of assets, liabilities and off balance sheet items, we assess the integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks’ economic value and capital adequacy. We then stress test a hypothetical but realistic bank using our framework and show that it is fundamental to measure the impact of credit and interest rate risk jointly.     

Elicitation using multiple price list formats

We examine the properties of a popular method for eliciting choices and values from experimental subjects, the multiple price list format. The main advantage of this format is that it is relatively transparent to subjects and provides simple incentives for truthful revelation. The main disadvantages are that it only elicits interval responses, and could be susceptible to framing effects. We consider extensions to address and evaluate these concerns. We conclude that although there are framing effects, they can be controlled for with a design that allows for them. We also find that the elicitation of risk attitudes is sensitive to procedures, subject pools, and the format of the multiple price list table, but that the qualitative findings that participants are generally risk averse is robust. The elicitation of discount rates appear less sensitive to details of the experimental design. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C9, D81, D91 An erratum to this article is available at .     

Corruption and the public display of wealth

We study an agent–client model of corruption, in which potential corruptors are uncertain about the probability with which officials are subjected to an audit, either high or low. We characterize a signaling equilibrium, in which officials who are less likely to be audited engage in public conspicuous consumption, whereas those who are more likely to be audited do not. In this equilibrium, officials are better off than in the equilibria without conspicuous consumption. The signaling equilibrium exists if the officials' bargaining power vis‐à‐vis potential corruptors is sufficiently high, which implies that corruption can be curbed by creating competition among officials.