The impact of different fibre access network technologies on cost,competition and welfare

Using a novel approach to the evaluation of new network technologies that combines an engineering cost model with a differentiated multi-player oligopoly model with wholesale access regulation this article evaluates the choice among different Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) architectures. The cost modelling relies upon an engineering bottom-up approach that feeds into a competition model. For addressing competition the pyramid model was chosen, which is an extension of the Hotelling model to multiple firms/services. The paper solves for price setting Nash equilibria between an incumbent, wholesale-access-based entrants and cable as an additional fully integrated network competitor. Welfare tradeoffs are highlighted with respect to cost differences and QoS differences between the various FTTH architectures and between the modes of regulation. According to the analysis architectures that can be unbundled (and that allow for greater speeds) outperform, from a social welfare perspective, architectures that (realistically) allow only for bitstream access.     

Asymmetry, stability and growth in a step-by-step R&D-race

We define a notion of stability of equilibrium in an infinitely repeated step-by-step R&D race. The unique symmetric equilibrium is shown to be unstable, and stable asymmetric equilibria arise, if product market competition is intense, firms are patient, imitation is difficult and innovations are large. Some predictions based on symmetric equilibria, e.g. that less patient firms always invest less in research, or that more intensive competition leads to higher economic growth, are reversed for “realistic” values of the underlying parameters.     

BIG data – BIG gains? Understanding the link between big data analytics and innovation

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the relationship between firms' use of big data analytics and their innovative performance in terms of product innovations. Since big data technologies provide new data information practices, they create novel decision-making possibilities, which are widely believed to support firms' innovation process. Applying German firm-level data within a knowledge production function framework we find suggestive evidence that big data analytics is a relevant determinant for the likelihood of a firm becoming a product innovator as well as for the market success of product innovations. These results hold for the manufacturing as well as for the service sector but are contingent on firms' investment in IT-specific skills. Overall, the results support the view that big data analytics have the potential to enable innovation.     

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the United States? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10% of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.6 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks.     

Bertrand Games and Sharing Rules

We consider asymmetric Bertrand games with arbitrary payoffs at ties or sharing rules, and identify sufficient conditions for the zero-profit outcome and the existence of Nash equilibria. Subject to some technical conditions on non-tied payoffs the following hold. If the sharing rule is strictly tie-decreasing all players but one receive zero equilibrium payoffs, while everybody does so if non-tied payoffs are symmetric. Mixed (pure) strategy Nash equilibria exist if the sharing rule is (norm) tie-decreasing and coalition-monotone. I would like to thank Fernando Branco, the audience at Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), ISEG (Lisbon), University of Mannheim, ESEM 2003 (Venice), EARIE 2005 (Porto), two anonymous referees, and the editor Dan Kovenock for very useful comments. This research received financial support under project POCTI/ECO/37925/2001 of FCT and FEDER.     

What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries

Over the last decades, a large strand of finance and growth literature has provided ample evidence on the importance of financial deepening for economic development. Yet, recently, the focus of public debate has shifted towards the role of the financial system structure, an area in which empirical research remains relatively sparse and exploratory in nature. With this article, we aim to contribute to that debate by analysing the role the financial system structure plays in economic growth and risk. Focusing on stock markets and studying OECD economies over 1994–2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, financial systems with relatively larger stock markets facilitate economic growth and dampen economic risk. Our findings remain robust under application of instrumental variable and system generalized method of moments estimators, as well as when we use an alternative definition of stock market development, estimate median regressions, examine relatively high-frequency annual data, control for systemic banking crises or apply quadratic specifications. We find no such effect for private bond markets or private credit volume. Overall, our results suggest that financial system structure matters for the economic development of advanced economies and highlight the importance of a debate about the optimal structure of an economy’s financial system.     

Nonparametric Bayes inference for concave distribution functions

Bayesian inference for concave distribution functions is investigated. This is made by transforming a mixture of Dirichlet processes on the space of distribution functions to the space of concave distribution functions. We give a method for sampling from the posterior distribution using a Pólya urn scheme in combination with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The methods are extended to estimation of concave distribution functions for incompletely observed data.     

Alles nur noch „digital“?

A plurality of new media technologies for everyday music listening have emerged alongside digitalization. For a lot of users in Germany, these new possibilities only complement the existing ones, resulting in complex trans-media usage patterns. For media scholars, this makes it increasingly difficult to derive an overall empirical picture of the dominant ways of everyday music use in Germany. Our study approaches these challenges with the help of the media repertoire approach (Hasebrink and Popp 2006) and develops a representative typology of everyday mediated music reception in Germany. Data from a nation-wide representative CATI survey on self-administered music reception in 2012 were analyzed with the help of Latent Class Analysis with Covariates (Collins and Lanza 2010). As a result, we could identify six ideal-typic audio repertoires from the obtained classes, which differ substantially in terms of types and intensity of audio devices used. Furthermore, a multinomial regression demonstrates class-memberships to be mainly determined by birth cohorts (50?%) and to a lesser degree by income, education and gender. We conclude with a mediatization-theoretic interpretation of the results based on the generation concept by Karl Mannheim (1928), which we intend to validate and deepen qualitatively and quantitatively through future follow-up studies.