The historical roots of India’s service-led development: A sectoral analysis of Anglo-Indian productivity differences, 1870-2000

India fell further behind the UK in terms of GDP per capita and overall labour productivity between the 1870s and the 1970s, but has been catching-up since. This paper offers a sectoral analysis of these trends. Comparative India/UK labour productivity in agriculture has declined continuously, and agriculture still accounts for around two-thirds of employment in India. Agriculture thus played a key role in India’s falling behind and has subsequently slowed down the process of catching up. Although there have been substantial fluctuations in comparative India/UK labour productivity in industry, this sector has exhibited no long run trend. The only sector to exhibit an upward trend in comparative India/UK labour productivity is services. India’s recent emergence as a dynamic service-led economy thus appears to have long historical roots. Although India has been characterised by relatively low levels of physical and human capital formation overall, its education provision has historically been unusually skewed towards secondary and tertiary levels. This has provided a limited supply of high productivity workers who have been employed predominantly in services.     

盛世走向封闭的教训值得汲取

关于苏联是怎么垮掉的,世界上论述很多,有人是说和平演变的,有人说是因为内部体制的问题.作为一个长期观察世界变化人来看,苏联兴盛起来,是开放带来的.苏联的第一个五年遍地计充分利用了1929年到1933年西方的经济危机,斯大林讲,他2/3的工厂是从美国引进的.但是战后苏联走向了封闭.     

Renminbi＇s Potential to Become a Global Currency

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.     

基层邮储银行反洗钱工作路径选择

邮储银行作为承担反洗钱任务的金融机构,在配合相关部门打击洗钱犯罪方面做了许多努力,但是由于各种原因,基层邮储银行的反洗钱工作仍存在许多困境和不足,文章对反洗钱工作存在的困境和不足进行了分析探讨,并提出了相应的解决策略。     

How to Measure Globalization? A New Globalization Index (NGI)

This paper presents the New Globalization Index (NGI). It is a composite index constructed to measure the relative globalization level of a group of countries. With its 21 variables, it accounts for the multidimensionality of this phenomenon instead of relying purely on economic indicators. As compared to other existing globalization indices, three major innovations are introduced in the NGI. Firstly, five variables that have until now not been used in globalization indices enter the calculations, introducing some new and important aspects to the measure, such as international student mobility and environmental issues. Secondly, the NGI forms a weighted sum of bilateral trade flows using the geographical distances between trading partners as weights. This modifies the usual trade openness measure by placing more weight on distant trading partners. In effect, intra-regional trade is given a lower weight in the NGI. One of the effects of this procedure is a significant downward movement in the ranking of some EU countries, whose international openness comes primarily from trade within their region and reflects regional integration more than globalization. A final innovation in the NGI is the use of a statistical method (principal component analysis) to form subcomponents of globalization according to the statistical features of the variable structure. The goal of this step is the analysis of the multidimensionality of globalization. Three dimensions emerge by the use of this technique: finance, trade and politics, and social globalization. Principal component analysis is also employed for producing weights for individual indicators within the overall index. Additionally, a control for country size is employed for some of the variables, as has been done in some other globalization indices before. The final index contains 70 countries and covers a period between 1995 and 2005.     

Old Wine in a New Bottle: Growth Convergence Dynamics in the EU

In this paper, we explore convergence of real per capita output across the European Union (EU) countries, as well as the transitional behavior of possible underlying factors that are responsible for any convergence or divergence pattern. The new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) is employed in a production function growth accounting approach and data from the Total Economy Database and the Total Economy Growth Accounting Database. The empirical findings suggest that the EU countries form two distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying growth factors. These findings should help policy makers in designing appropriate growth-oriented programs as well as in setting priorities in their implementation.