An examination of the effects of management earnings forecast form and explanations on financial analyst forecast revisions

Using a sample of 978 quarterly management earnings-per-share forecasts made during the period 1993 to 1999, we document that financial analyst revisions to management earnings forecasts are a function of management forecast form. More precise forecasts (measured three different ways) lead to greater revision of financial analyst consensus EPS forecasts for a given level of unexpected earnings as predicted by Kim and Verrecchia (1991) and Bayesian adjustment models. Also, consistent with our arguments, maximum forecasts are interpreted as bad news by analysts. Our results, while consistent with theory, are inconsistent with recent experimental studies which do not reject the null hypothesis of no effect of management earnings forecast form on the association between unexpected earnings and financial analyst forecast revisions. We also re-examine Baginski, Hassell, and Kimbrough's (2004) finding that attributions used to explain management forecasts affect the reaction to the forecast using analyst data. Consistent with their findings using stock prices, the attribution presence (especially external attributions) increases financial analyst revisions pursuant to management forecasts.     

'High-performance' Management Practices, Working Hours and Work–Life Balance

The effects of selected high‐performance practices and working hours on work–life balance are analysed with data from national surveys of British employees in 1992 and 2000. Alongside long hours, which are a constant source of negative job‐to‐home spillover, certain ‘high‐performance’ practices have become more strongly related to negative spillover during this period. Surprisingly, dual‐earner couples are not especially liable to spillover — if anything, less so than single‐earner couples. Additionally, the presence of young children has become less important over time. Overall, the results suggest a conflict between high‐performance practices and work‐life balance policies.     

When does economic model type become a decisive factor in health technology appraisals? Learning from the expanding treatment options for relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis

Objectives: Specific economic model types often become de facto standard for health technology appraisal over time. Markov and discrete event simulation (DES) models were compared to investigate the impact of innovative modeling on the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Fingolimod was compared to dimethyl fumarate (DMF; in highly active [HA] RRMS), alemtuzumab (in HA RRMS) and natalizumab (in rapidly evolving severe RRMS). Comparator DMTs were chosen to reflect different dosing regimens.

Materials and methods: Markov and DES models used have been published previously. Inputs were aligned in all relevant respects, with differences in the modeling of event-triggered attributes, such as relapse-related retreatment, which is inherently difficult with a memoryless Markov approach. Outcomes were compared, with and without different attributes.

Results: All results used list prices. For fingolimod and DMF, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were comparable (Markov: £4206/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained versus DES: £3910/QALY gained). Deviations were observed when long-term adverse events (AEs) were incorporated in the DES (Markov: £25,412 saved/QALY lost, versus DES: £34,209 saved/QALY lost, fingolimod versus natalizumab; higher ICERs indicate greater cost-effectiveness). For fingolimod versus alemtuzumab, when relapse-triggered retreatment was included in the DES, large cost differences were observed (difference between incremental cost is £35,410 and QALY is 0.10).

Limitations: UK payer perspective, therefore societal approach was not considered. Resource utilization and utilities for both models were not derived from the subpopulations; as the focus is on model type, input limitations that apply to both models are less relevant.

Conclusions: Whilst no model can fully represent a disease, a DES allows an opportunity to include features excluded in a Markov structure. A DES may be more suitable for modeling in RRMS for health technology assessment purposes given the complexity of some DMTs. This analysis highlights the capabilities of different model structures to model event-triggered attributes.     

Social Security, Poverty and Economic Transition: An Analysis for Bulgaria 1992–96

The paper addresses the issues of poverty and social security in a transitional environment on the basis of recent economic developments in Bulgaria. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a new type of social safety net stemming from the radical changes in the political and economic system. The evolution of the social security system in Bulgaria during the transition is analysed focusing on such elements as the pension system, unemployment benefits, child allowances, etc. The empirical analysis is based on extensive use of data from the Bulgarian Household Budget Surveys during the period 1992–1996. Poverty in Bulgaria is measured using different poverty measurements and some quantitative results showing the changing dimensions of poverty in the transition period are presented and discussed in the paper.EES or e-mail at Corresponding author. E-mail:     

Work Relationships in Telephone Call Centres: Understanding Emotional Exhaustion and Employee Withdrawal

This paper examines the nature of employment and the conditions of work in five telephone call centres in the telecommunications industry in Australia. Call centre work typically requires high levels of sustained interpersonal interaction with customers which can lead to burnout and employee withdrawal. Customer service staff can also become targets of customer hostility and abuse. In addition, this form of work tends to involve extensive employee monitoring and surveillance with little job discretion or variety of tasks. The paper draws upon survey data from 480 telephone service operators to identify the factors that are associated with emotional exhaustion and the frequency of absence amongst the employees. A modelling of the data using LISREL VIII revealed that a number of job and work-setting variables affected the level of emotional exhaustion of employees. These included interactions with the customer, a high workload and a lack of variety of work tasks. Moreover, higher rates of absence were associated with emotional exhaustion.     

The welfare costs of unreliable water service

Throughout the developing world, many water distribution systems are unreliable. As a result, it becomes necessary for each household to store its own water as a hedge against this uncertainty. Since arrivals of water are not synchronized across households, serious distributional inefficiencies arise. We develop a model describing the optimal intertemporal depletion of each household's private water storage if it is uncertain when water will next arrive to replenish supplies. The model is calibrated using survey data from Mexico City, a city where many households store water in sealed rooftop tanks known as tinacos. The calibrated model is used to evaluate the potential welfare gains that would occur if alternative modes of water provision were implemented. We estimate that most of the potential distributional inefficiencies can be eliminated simply by making the frequency of deliveries the same across households which now face haphazard deliveries. This would require neither costly investments in infrastructure nor price increases.     

Technology and the services sector: The hidden competitive challenge

Information technology has always played an important role in the services sector of the U.S. economy. In recent years, however, services industries have stepped up their acquisitions of computers, telecommunications equipment, and other such products dramatically. As a result, the broad segment of the economy that can be classified as services providers now owns about 84% of the total U.S. stock of information technology items. Moreover, relative to goods-producing industries, a much larger proportion of the services sector's capital budgets is spent on information technology, revealing a significantly greater dependence by services on such technology as a factor of production. This reliance underscores technology's strategic importance in the United States' competitive challenge. With services now the predominant mode of economic activity in the United States, a productivity payback from information technology is absolutely essential to keep the economy on a longer term path of sustainable growth.So far, the services sector has little to show for its spending binge on technology. Quite simply, massive investments in information technology have failed to boost national productivity growth in the present decade. Furthermore, with manufacturing productivity now on the rebound, problems in the services sector loom increasingly large in the United States' broader competitive struggle. It is certainly not too late. New and creative applications of information technology could still enhance the productivity performance of the services sector's predominantly white-collar work force. Until that payback begins to occur, however, the role of technology spending will be under growing suspicion [3, 8, 9].In what follows, an attempt is made to provide a detailed industry-by-industry assessment of services sector spending on information technology. By way of background, the broad contours of capital formation in services industries are first examined over the post-World War II era.     

ANALYZING CULTURAL STEREOTYPES IN MULTINATIONAL BUSINESS: UNITED STATES AND AUSTRALIA

As U.S. business becomes more international, so does U.S. management education. Executive development programmes offer courses in the U.S. and abroad to managers from many nations. As part of the transfer of U.S. management methods, the concepts, techniques and beliefs taught in these programmes may not be easily accepted, especially by foreign managers. Careful examination of cultural differences in attitudes and opinions is a necessary step in the successful transfer of management technology. This paper compares U.S. and Australian managers' values, attitudes, beliefs and opinions on a wide range of topics using a modified version of Schein's Public Opinion Questionnaire. Our findings suggest that there are common business management views as well as national differences among managers in the U.S. and Australia.