STRATEGIC INVENTORY OPTIMIZATION

A company's inventory metrics are often viewed as critical indicators of its supply chain performance although inventory costs are only a fraction of total supply chain costs comprised of supplier, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing costs, as well as inventory costs. Moreover, inventories across the supply chain are dependent on acquisition and distribution decisions. We discuss how simulation and optimization models can be combined to integrate analysis of inventory and supply chain network design decisions in performing a total cost analysis. An application of the models to plans for distributing retail products to an expanding network of stores is reviewed.     

Entrepôt Trade and Smuggling in West Africa: Benin,Togo and Nigeria

Official trade statistics indicate very little intra‐African trade, but this is often because of the prevalence of unrecorded trade, particularly smuggling. This paper explores smuggling from Benin and Togo into Nigeria. Nigeria has very high import tariffs and bans on certain products. Togo and Benin have deliberately maintained low import barriers to facilitate an Entrepôt role vis‐à‐vis Nigeria and land‐locked Sahelian countries. Togo competes at a geographic disadvantage relative to Benin for access to the Nigerian market and compensates with lower transit taxes. The volume and composition of cross‐border trade is analysed using data obtained from Benin and Togo customs authorities, as well as interviews with traders and customs officials in both countries. Benin and to a lesser extent Togo are the origin of a very large volume of transshipment of precisely those products which are heavily protected in Nigeria, such as used cars, cloth and rice. It is common knowledge in Benin and Togo that these imports, although declared for domestic consumption or transit to other countries, are in fact overwhelmingly intended for Nigeria. Smuggling is a major source of income and employment in Benin and Togo, but provides a fragile and unreliable foundation for economic development.     

To Launch or Not to Launch: An Empirical Estimate of New Food Product Success Rate

New product introduction is one of the most important activities for a company’s growth. It is generally accepted that new product introductions are essential to the health of food companies. Yet, many believe that most new products fail, therefore discouraging companies to introduce some new products. However, most of the estimates suggesting high failure rates are either anecdotal or qualitative. This article provides a quantitative approach to measuring new product success rates for food products and to show the relationship between the success of new product and entry strategies. This article uses a quantitative approach to measuring product success/failure exclusively for food products. The authors contend that failure rates for food products are not nearly as low, and success rates much higher than it was previously established in the literature and perceived by the industry professionals. There was a significant variability of success rates between various food groups ranging from 58% for both fruit and vegetables and desserts and ice-cream categories to 88% for baby food. Success rates also varied among the different introductory strategies of the new food products, ranging from 50% for new packaging to 75% for re-launch strategies.

Academics and practitioners usually quote very low success rates for new products based on subjective and/or strictly qualitative information. This empirical quantitative research shows that success rates for food products are much higher than previously reported. This should encourage greater use of new products to grow sales and profits. The previously reported low success rate may have led to the reluctance to introduce new products and therefore set many of the legacy food companies in their current poor financial condition.     

Options for Electricity Transmission Regulation in Australia

The pricing of access to electricity transmission networks in Australia is currently under review. Several options have been proposed including those based on nodal pricing and the assignment of transmission rights contracts. As most of the marginal costs of transmission are recovered through wholesale electricity prices we focus on the key issue of regulation and investment incentives. We find that current options are unlikely to be adequate in terms of encouraging socially optimal levels and timing of new transmission investment. As an alternative, we propose a regulatory scheme, based on a related idea by Sappington and Sibley that can overcome this problem. Our scheme can potentially generate first best results and is readily applicable given the current institutional structure of electricity markets in Australia.     

The efficiency of voluntary incentive policies for preventing biodiversity loss

Habitat loss is a primary cause of loss of biodiversity but conserving habitat for species presents challenges. Land parcels differ in their ability to produce returns for landowners and landowners may have private information about the value of the land to them. Land parcels also differ in the type and quality of habitat and the spatial pattern of land use across multiple landowners is important for determining the conservation value of parcels. This paper analyzes the relative efficiency of simple voluntary incentive-based policies in achieving biodiversity conservation objectives. This topic is important not just for biodiversity conservation but for any effort to provide a public good requiring coordination across multiple decision-makers who have some degree of private information. We develop a method that integrates spatially explicit data, an econometric model of private land-use decisions, landscape simulations, a biological model of biodiversity as a function of landscape pattern, and an algorithm that estimates the set of efficient solutions. These methods allow us to simulate landowner responses to policies, measure the consequences of these decisions for biodiversity conservation, and compare these outcomes to efficient outcomes to show the relative efficiency of various policy approaches. We find substantial differences in biodiversity conservation scores generated by simple voluntary incentive-based policies and efficient solutions. The performance of incentive-based policies is particularly poor at low levels of the conservation budget where spatial fragmentation of conserved parcels is a large concern. Performance can be improved by encouraging agglomeration of conserved habitat and by incorporating basic biological information, such as that on rare habitats, into the selection criteria.     

Comparative forecasting: Hindsighting the Czechoslovakian invasion

Two dissimilar information-processing techniques may be used to forecast the same phenomenon. Event-pattern recognition, objective in nature, uses predetermined indicators and is dependent upon selected data flows; the Bayesian method rests more heavily upon subjective interpretation. These two methods may be used to forecast a variety of phenomena—here they are retrospectively tested for their ability to forecast the August 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. Objective and subjective methods may be used to generate combined, or at least cross-validated, forecasts; and the author suggests how—and at what costs—comparative forecasting may be used productively for international political analysis.