The Influence of Task Load and Automation Trust on Deception Detection

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects that user task load level has on the relationship between an individual's trust in and subsequent use of a system's automation. Military decision-makers trust and use information system automation to make many tactical judgments and decisions. In situations of information uncertainty (information warfare environments), decision-makers must remain aware of information reliability issues and temperate their use of system automation if necessary. An individual's task load may have an effect on his use of a system's automation in environments of information uncertainty.It was hypothesized that user task load will have a moderating effect on the positive relationship between system automation trust and use of system automation. Specifically, in situations of information uncertainty (low trust), high task load will have a negative effect on the relationship. To test this hypothesis, an experiment in a simulated command and control micro-world was conducted in which system automation trust and individual task load were manipulated. The findings from the experiment support the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use found in previous research and suggest that task load does have a negative effect on the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use. Experiment participant who incurred a higher task load exhibited an over-reliance on their automated information systems to assist them in their decision-making activities. Such an over-reliance can lead to vulnerabilities of deception and suggests the need for automated deception detection capabilities.     

The Intergenerational Supply of Loggers Under Conditions of Declining Economic Well-Being

This paper addresses the supply-side explanations of a logger shortage by estimating an occupational choice model that considers the role of earnings, nonpecuniary determinants and intergenerational factors. Our results showed that: (1) relative earnings have no statistically significant effect on career choice; (2) improvement in the public image of loggers substantially increases entry into logging; and (3) a strong intergenerational supply linkage exists but is currently being eroded.     

Estimation of Agricultural Production Functfons on a World-Wide Basis

Agricultural production is becoming increasingly capital and research intensive. Hayami and Ruttan, along with others, have developed and applied the metaproduction functional approach to the examination of this phenomenon on a worldwide basis. Limitations to the approach derive from a restrictive functional form chosen for estimation, and from a restrictive specification of agricultural capital and land. This study addresses those difficulties by use of the flexible translog functional form for estimation and by specifying an overall agricultural capital index and a land measure incorporating differences in the quality of land (agricultural natural resource) endowments. Estimation results indicate that agricultural comparative advantage in production is likely shifting to developed countries relative to LDC's due to capital constraints in the latter. Also agricultural potential (i.e., land endowments) do not serve to differentiate nations on the basis of agricultural production. Investment in agriculture, including land improvement, is key to the determination of comparative advantage. La production agricole fait appelle de plus en plus a beaucoup de re-cherches et de capitaux. Hayami et Ruttan, avec d'autres, ont developpe et appliqué l'approche fonctionnelle métaproduction pour examiner ce phénomena à l‘échelle du monde. Les limitations de cette approache provienneent de la forme fonctionnelle restrictive choisie pour l'estimation, et de la spécification restrictive de capitaux et terres agricoles. Cette étude traite ces difficultés en utilisant la formule “translog’ fonctionnelle adaptable pour l'estimation et en spécificant un indice du capital agricole global et une mesure de terre qui incorpore les différences du qualité des terres agricoles (ressources agricoles naturelles). Tous les résultats estimatifs indiquent que l'avantage comparatif agricole de production s'incline vers les pays développés parraport aux PMD dû aux constraintes de capitaux dans ces derniers. Aussi la capacité agricole (c'est à dire la richesse des sols) ne sert pas à différencier les nations sur le plan de production agricole. L'investissement dans l'agriculte, notamment l'amélioration de terre, est la cief pour déterminer l'avantage comparatif.     

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY RESPONSE: PADDY IN SRI LANKA

An aggregate analysis of supply response in the paddy (rice) sector of Sri Lanka during 1952-87 is conducted to identify the impact of pricing policy, irrigation programmes, institutional credit and concessional sales on area, yield and overall supply. The focus of the estimation procedure is the selection of an appropriate functional form for regressions and on the price variable that best represents the price to which producers respond in making area and yield decisions. In the case of both area and yield, the econometric criteria favour the acceptance of log-linear equations with the ratio of the guaranteed price of paddy to fertiliser price. On the basis of overall supply elasticity estimates, it is concluded that while pricing policy, irrigation programmes and institutional credit provide incentives to the expansion of paddy production, concessional sales of rice act as a disincentive.     

Polynomial approximations in cross-sectional models

The time-series distributed lag techniques of econometrics can be usefully applied to cross-sectional, spatial and cross-section time-series situations. The application is perfectly natural in cross-section, time-series models when regression coefficients evolve systematically as the cross-section grouping variable changes. The evolution of such coefficients lends itself to polynomial approximation or more general smoothing restrictions. These ideas are not new, Gersovitz and McKinnon (1978) and Trivedi and Lee (1981) providing two of the earliest applications of cross-equation smoothing techniques. However, their applications were in the context of coefficient variation due to seasonal changes and this may account for the non-diffusion of these techniques. The approach here is illustrated in the context of age-specific household formation equations based on census data, using Almon polynomials when the regression coefficients vary systematically by age group. A second application is provided, using spatial data, explaining the incidence of crime, by region; using polynomial and geometric smoothing to model distance declining regional effects.     

Uniform Commercial Policy, Illegal Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis

Countries on fixed exchange rates sometimes use uniform tariffcum subsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way of achieving a real depreciationwithout disturbing the nominal exchange rate. A potential drawbackof this policy in relation to an across-the-board devaluationis that a UTCS scheme provides incentives for illegal trade.Using an optimizing model with currency convertibility and illegaltrade. I find that welfare is lower under a UTCS scheme thanunder a corresponding across-the-board devaluation and thatin some cases the real exchange rate actually appreciates inresponse to an increase in the UTCS rate.     

On the E-optimality of truncated block designs

Sufficient conditions are found for designs, derived from completely symmetric designs by deleting binary blocks, to be E-optimal. Sufficient conditions are also found for E-optimality of designs obtained from other E-optimal designs by deleting all blocks forming a balanced incomplete block design on a subset of the treatments. The results include many binary and non-binary designs for which E-optimality was previously unknown.     

Cognitive processing models in performance appraisal: evidence from the Malaysian education system

The effectiveness of the decision‐making process in appraisal has been of long‐standing interest. This paper reports the results of research exploring the extent to which those undertaking appraisals apply systematic processes to their decision‐making, represented in terms of the cognitive processing models applied by appraisers. Results of 22 cognitive mapping interviews exploring appraisal practice, undertaken with appraisers in the Malaysian education system, are described. The resultant cognitive maps have been explored for what they tell us about the cognitive processing models underlying appraisers' decision‐making. Results suggest that the practice of appraisal evidenced in interviews demonstrates the presence of cognitive processing that reflects theoretical cognitive processing models, although some differences are observed between less experienced and experienced appraisers' models. Implications from the interview findings for the practice of appraisal are identified.