Post-industrial Canada: An econometric modelling approach

This study brings together the predominantly qualitative approach of social forecasting—as manifested by Daniel Bell's concept of the post-industrial society—and the quantitative analysis of econometric forecasting. The econometric model used here is the candide model of the Canadian national economy. The author seeks to verify the compatibility of some hypotheses of the post-industrial concept by using candide to develop a post-industrial scenario; in doing so, he obtains quantitative estimates of many critical features of the concept within the framework of a structured and reasonably consistent model.     

Conditional and Unconditional Conservatism:Concepts and Modeling

We develop a model that captures the distinct natures of and interactions between conditional and unconditional conservatism. Under unconditional conservatism, the book value of net assets is understated due to predetermined aspects of the accounting process. Under conditional conservatism, book value is written down under sufficiently adverse circumstances, but not up under favorable circumstances. The specification of earnings provided by the model yields hypotheses about how unconditional conservatism and other factors preempt conditional conservatism and so affect the asymmetric response of earnings to positive and negative share returns, both current and lagged, documented by Basu (1995, “Conservatism and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Rochester’ 1997, “The Conservatism Principle and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 24, 3–37).This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Too Busy to Mind the Business? Monitoring by Directors with Multiple Board Appointments

We examine the number of external appointments held by corporate directors. Directors who serve larger firms and sit on larger boards are more likely to attract directorships. Consistent with Fama and Jensen (1983), we find that firm performance has a positive effect on the number of appointments held by a director. We find no evidence that multiple directors shirk their responsibilities to serve on board committees. We do not find that multiple directors are associated with a greater likelihood of securities fraud litigation. We conclude that the evidence does not support calls for limits on directorships held by an individual.     

High-Water Marks and Hedge Fund Management Contracts

Incentive fees for money managers are frequently accompanied by high‐water mark provisions that condition the payment of the performance fee upon exceeding the previously achieved maximum share value. In this paper, we show that hedge fund performance fees are valuable to money managers, and conversely, represent a claim on a significant proportion of investor wealth. The high‐water mark provisions in these contracts limit the value of the performance fees. We provide a closed‐form solution to the cost of the high‐water mark contract under certain conditions. Our results provide a framework for valuation of a hedge fund management company.     

Unit initial public offerings: Staged equity or signaling mechanism?

We investigate the use of unit (i.e., package) initial public offerings by Australian industrial firms and conclude that their use reflects their role as a signaling mechanism (Chemmanur and Fulghieri, 1997), as distinct from the agency–cost explanation offered by Schultz (1993). From a sample of 394 IPOs between 1976 and 1994, the 66 firms making unit offerings are typically riskier, use less prestigious underwriters and have a lower level of retained ownership than other IPO firms. While these results are also consistent with Schultz's agency cost explanation, other results we report are not. We find no difference in underpricing etween unit IPOs and other IPO firms, nor are there any significant differences in the planned uses of proceeds reported in the prospectus, post–listing failure rates or secondary equity offerings of the type predicted by Schultz. We do however, report evidence consistent with a prediction unique to the signaling explanation. After controlling for the level of ownership retained by insiders, the proportion of firm value sold as warrants is increasing in IPO firms' riskiness.     

The Cost Efficiency of Real Estate Investment Trusts: An Analysis with a Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Model

Using a stochastic frontier methodology that incorporates Bayesian statistics, this paper analyzes the cost efficiency of real estate investment trusts (REITs) by observing the deviations of the measured costs of individual REITs from a defined efficient cost frontier. Using 1995–1997 data, we extend the previous research in this area and measure REIT efficiency more precisely by isolating random measurement error from the overall deviations from the efficient cost frontier. We calculate the magnitude of each REIT's managerial inefficiency, the industry inefficiency, and returns to scale. In addition, we assess specific characteristics of REITs for their contribution to inefficiency by calculating the odds ratio that a REIT with a specific characteristic is more efficient than a REIT with an alternative characteristic. The results show that, for the years studied, REITs are relatively cost efficient with most REITs facing increasing returns to scale. Additionally, the REIT's use of debt and the REIT's management style significantly affect the cost performance of REITs during the aforementioned time period. Finally, diversification across property types, as measured, does not seem to influence REIT cost efficiency.     

Demography as a forecasting tool

The European population is rapidly ageing. This implies changing economic and social relations between the generations. In turn this precipitates economic change. In particular the welfare bill in the future needs to be paid for more dependants by a smaller working population. This fundamental shift also changes the conditions for productivity growth, trade and even monetary policy. Using demographic projections to forecast these changes and integrate them into futures scenarios contributes to realism in the futures envisioned. Demographic processes can be influenced by policy, but the feedback is slow. This ensures the usefulness of demographic forecasting but it also implies that policy decisions need to be taken well in advance of the problems that ageing will cause. At horizons beyond 10–20 years there are ample opportunity to adapt the society to avoid unacceptable scenarios. Before that the scope for action is much less and much more constrained. The inertia of the demographic structure is such that it is hard and probably costly to turn unwanted trends caused by unbalanced age structures. For example, a likely consequence of the developing scarcity of labour in Europe is that the demand for education goes down in spite of the desirability for society to expand higher education.