Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

Negotiating the Evolution of the Hr Function: Practical Advice From the Health Care Sector

This paper has two aims. First, to consider explanations for the apparent gap between the paradigm of strategic human resource management on the one hand and actual HR practice on the other. Second, to generate practical advice for senior HR specialists who are aspriring to develop a strategic role for their function. the research underpinning these findings was based on case studies in three hospitals in Adelaide and a comparison of the findings with the situation at Leicester General NHS Trust where the first named author of this article was the HR director and a senior board member. the analysis reveals that specific features of each organisation's history, current structure and management, shape powerfully the nature of the HR function. Moreover, the local shaping factors define the degrees of freedom open to the HR function, so much so, that the notion that it can choose its organisational stance is here challenged.     

Some Determinants of Core Competencies: Evidence from a Binary-Logit Analysis

Despite the increasing recognition of the salience of core competencies in the process of competition, the notion of core competencies has remained largely ambiguous in the literature. Neither is it clear what strategies, institutions, and resources are necessary for developing and sustaining core competencies. This paper uses the binary-logit model to explore the determinants of core competencies, and identifies investment in intangible assets, marketing/promotional activities and firm size as significant determinants of core competencies. An evaluation of the technology strategies of two competence-seeking firms also points to the increasing salience of intangible assets, decentralization/globalization of the R&D function, and the intensive search for knowledge and capabilities.     

Risk Management Using Quasi–static Hedging

In this paper, we try to develop a comprehensive theory of risk management for illiquid trading instruments and exotics by examining the consequences of a quasi–static hedging strategy. In contrast to a static hedging strategy, in which an initial hedge once executed is kept in place for the life of the trade, and a dynamic hedging strategy, in which hedges are frequently adjusted over the life of the trade, a quasi–static hedging strategy utilizes hedge adjustments but tries to minimize the frequency. Almost all the examples studied in the framework introduced here take this minimization to the extreme by limiting hedge adjustments to at most one during the life of a trade. We examine the application of this approach to long–dated forwards, long–dated options and exotic options such as cliquet and barriers. The model we present for barriers is a new generation of the Derman–Ergener–Kani approach which combines the flexibility of the approach with a sizable increase in model independence.     

Tariff (De‐) Escalation with Successive Oligopoly

This paper explores the issue of a simultaneous reduction in tariffs at different stages of a vertically related market where each stage is oligopolistic. When vertically related markets are characterized as a successive oligopoly, reducing tariffs by an equivalent amount on upstream and downstream imports will have a differential effect on market access and hence profits at each stage as a result of a combination of horizontal and vertical effects. These differential effects have implications for the tariff structure post‐trade reform.     

Integrating Systemic Risk into Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice

Conventional wisdom holds that the performance of investment managers should be measured against some broad market index such as the S&P 500. The broad market averages provide a useful benchmark because they are assumed to be beyond the influence of investment managers and provide a way of capturing what financial economists call “systematic risk,” which is the part of total risk that cannot be avoided through portfolio diversification. But one clear limitation of such an approach to performance evaluation is that by focusing on risks and rewards at the portfolio level only, it fails to consider risks and rewards at a systemic level, where the performance of all portfolios is increasingly likely to be affected. The author begins by making the case that the performance evaluation and collective decision‐making of investment managers could have the effect of increasing the level of systematic risk in both the markets and the real economy. Then, after suggesting that the strength or weakness of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworks can have substantial effects on overall market returns, he discusses a number of efforts currently underway to integrate ESG factors into portfolio‐level decision‐making. The author closes by urging asset owners to take the following three steps to help bridge the gap between investment decision‐making and ESG consequences: (1) acknowledge the connection between investment decision‐making and systems‐level risks and rewards; (2) determine which systemic frameworks are most appropriate and useful for their purposes; and (3) implement investment practices that allow them to manage systemic‐level risks and rewards while simultaneously achieving competitive financial returns in their portfolios. With the help of new measurement and management tools, asset owners can strengthen systemic frameworks, communicate the importance of ESG performance to their investees and investors, and align their efforts with those of governmental and non‐governmental organizations to limit systemic risk.     

Were In-Process Research and Development Charges Too Aggressive?

Abstract:  Prior research documents that US firms write off large in-process research and development charges (IPRD) for acquisitions, possibly overstating the current period expense to inflate future earnings. Consequently, in 1998, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began scrutinizing IPRD charges. We use pre-acquisition R&D expenses of 144 target firms as a benchmark for assessing whether IPRD charges are appropriate. Overall, the results suggest that most firms during our sample period were not overly aggressive in expensing IPRD–especially for acquisitions subsequent to the SEC's scrutiny. The results also indicate that the SEC's intervention reduced the frequency of overstated IPRD charges.     

How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?

This paper analyzes a simple model that captures the relationship between institutional quality, the shadow economy, and corruption. It shows that an improvement in institutional quality reduces the shadow economy and affects the corruption market. The exact relationship between corruption and institutional quality is, however, ambiguous and depends on the relative effectiveness of institutional quality in the shadow and corruption markets. The analytics also show that the shadow economy and corruption are substitutes. The predictions of the model are empirically tested and confirmed.     

Reflections on Private Water Supply: Agency and Equity Issues

In the second of the two articles, the authors reflect on and extend their earlier work by describing recent trends in water privatization, drawing important lessons from cases where privatization efforts have failed, offering suggestions about the way privatized firms can be successfully monitored, and addressing the popular argument that “fairness” demands that water be distributed by public firms at a zero (or heavily subsidized) price.