The persistence of real estate cycles

This paper presents a model that attempts to explain the underlying causes of the prolonged cycles observed in real estate markets. In addition, the paper characterizes the features that make some property types more prone to such boom-and-bust behavior. The combination of demand uncertainty, adjustment costs, and construction lags leads to two phenomena that may help explain market persistence. The first phenomenon is the reluctance of owners to adjust occupancy levels, even in the face of large shifts in renter demand. The second phenomenon is the occurrence of periods of sustained overbuilding: the addition of new supply in the face of already high vacancy rates.     

Exploring Correlates of Product Launch in Collaborative Ventures: An Empirical Investigation of Pharmaceutical Alliances

This paper examines collaborative ventures leading toward the launch of new products in the pharmaceutical industry. These collaborative ventures are one of the most underresearched areas in the new product literature, yet the preponderance of these collaborative ventures makes it an area of great importance for scholars and practitioners alike. As such, the purpose of the study is to examine why some collaborative projects produce a favorable outcome (the launch of a product) whereas others do not. That is, what characteristics of partner firms in the collaborative ventures and what characteristics of the partnership lead to a successful launch of a new product in the pharmaceutical industry? Secondary data from the pharmaceutical industry are employed in a multinomial logit model. Data from 128 collaborative ventures from 1980 to 2004 are used in the analysis. The partner firms in the collaborative ventures are from various industries ranging from malt beverages to pharmaceutical preparations to electronic and other equipment among others. Of the 128 collaborative ventures, 66 were successful in leading to a new product launch, whereas 62 did not result in the launch of a new product. The results from the multinomial logit analysis suggest that combined marketing resources of parent companies, combined technological intensity of parent companies, and combined asset bases of parent companies contribute to the likelihood of an eventual product launch in a collaborative venture. However, the results of the analysis show that contrary to expectations, technological complementarity of partners in the collaborative venture is not a significant predictor of successful new product launch. The results of the study suggest certain aspects for managers to consider when establishing collaborative ventures. To maximize the possibilities of the collaborative venture leading to the successful launching of a new product, managers should be concerned with the resources potentially available to partners in the collaborative venture from parent firms. These resources are not only of financial nature but also of technological nature. The existence of these resources does not ensure provision of resources to the collaborative venture; however, without the possibility of these resources it appears that successful launch of a product is less likely.     

The robustness of modified unit root tests in the presence of GARCH

We consider the valuation of energy storage facilities within the framework of stochastic control. Our two main examples are natural gas dome storage and hydroelectric pumped storage. Focusing on the timing flexibility aspect of the problem we construct an optimal switching model with inventory. Thus, the manager has a constrained compound American option on the inter-temporal spread of the commodity prices. Extending the methodology from Carmona and Ludkovski [Appl. Math. Finance, 2008], we then construct a robust numerical scheme based on Monte Carlo regressions. Our simulation method can handle a generic Markovian price model and easily incorporates many operational features and constraints. To overcome the main challenge of the path-dependent storage levels, two numerical approaches are proposed. The resulting scheme is compared with the traditional quasi-variational framework and illustrated with several concrete examples. We also consider related problems of interest, such as supply guarantees and mines management.     

"带形容词"的民主:比较研究中的概念创新

近年来,世界各国民主化的趋势使得学者们必须面对两个具有潜在矛盾的目标:其一是建立一个能涵盖各个国家不同经验、具有多样性的民主概念;其二是在不扩大概念的基础上扩大对这一大类案例的分析。本文认为这种双重挑战导致了概念创新的加速,产生了几百种民主的亚类型———也就是“带形容词”的民主。本文对出现的三种重要创新类型的优势和弱点进行了探讨,这三种类型是:对民主定义的“精确化”;对与民主相关联的大概念进行转化;以及建立不同的亚类型。鉴于这些重新定义民主概念的策略所产生的含义具有复杂的结构,我们显得老生常谈式的结论其实具有新的紧迫含义:学者们必须通过对他们所使用的民主概念进行清楚的定义和说明来为自己的研究定位。     

Time,congestion, and public goods

This paper considers intermediate and final public goods as stocks from which consumers obtain a flow of services by expending scarce time. The services so obtained depend on the time other individuals spend utilizing these same goods. Optimality conditions are derived for both stock levels and flow usage where tolls are required to cover costs. The elasticities in the resulting formulae are endogenous in the sense that only certain values are permissible. In the intermediate good case, at the optimum, the public good will always be locally optimally supplied and locally underutilized to a degree which depends on the congestion parameter.     

The functions of the family in the great society

Criticisms by Hodgson and others that Hayek and other Austrianscannot offer a theory of the family are responded to with adiscussion of the functions of the family in a market society.The family can be understood as a bridge between what Hayekterms ‘organisations’, or face-to-face social institutionsand ‘orders’, or the anonymous social institutionsof the Great Society. The family's necessary role is then linkedto familiar Hayekian themes of knowledge and incentives. Familieshelp us to learn the explicit and tacit social rules necessaryfor functioning in the wider world, and families are uniquelypositioned to do so, because it is those closest to us who havethe knowledge and incentives necessary to provide that learning.     

What drives technology transitions? An integration of different approaches within transition studies

This paper aims to provide a deeper understanding of transition drivers by reviewing four major strands of inquiry in transition studies: Multi Level Perspective (MLP); Strategic Niche Management (SNM); Transition Management (TM); Technological Innovation Systems (TIS). To the best of our knowledge, none of these contributions have so far provided a clear-cut classification of main drivers of transitions, as evidenced by the difficulty of practitioners in reaching goals as entrepreneurs, or policy makers in supporting economic growth. We believe that these theoretical streams share views relating the origin and drivers of transitions and that the analysis of the multi-level developments and systemic sub-processes by using the Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) allows for a more comprehensive identification of transition drivers. By mapping causal relationships within each perspective and by developing an integrative framework that takes in due account of overlaps between theories, we derived a new conceptual structure for the identification of transitions’ drivers.