Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

DETERMINANTS OF GOODWILL AMORTIZATION PERIOD

This study investigates whether economic consequences have an effect on the length of the period over which goodwill is amortized. It finds that there is a significant relationship between the size of the firm and the length of the amortization period. It also finds, when the only firms included in the sample are those reporting debt covenant restrictions dependent in part on goodwill accounting, evidence that the length of the amortization period for goodwill is related to the firm's leverage.     

Risk and the miller equilibrium: Capital structure choice with risk-averse investors

Merton Miller's (1977) tax model of equilibrium capital structure choice results in capital structure irrelevance and the existence of tax clienteles, assuming the restrictive case of risk-neutrality. Relaxation of the assumption of risk-neutrality in Miller's tax framework, allowing utility-maximizing risk-averse investors, indicates that capital structure irrelevance continues to hold under reasonable assumptions about utility. Evaluation of resulting tax clienteles shows that marginal tax rates do not restrict investors from investing in equities but do affect the tax status of purchased bonds.     

Development and the mystification of ‘cultural factors’: One destiny: Our common future in Africa,by A S van Niekerk

In One destiny: Our common future in Africa the author relates, in popular fashion, a series of incidents which convinced him that the basic difference between black and white in South Africa is cultural deep‐seated and the cause of underdevelopment and conflict He develops a circular argument in which world‐view is taken as the root of perceptions, values and activities. The effects of experience and economic and political factors are given secondary importance. This argument cannot accommodate social change and differentiation, and the author tends to concentrate on perceptions and events which he finds morally unacceptable. He gives an unbalanced assessment and an ethnocentric interpretation of African life. Possible reasons for this type of argument are explored and an alternative which takes its departure from the interaction between experience and perception is offered     

Political scrutiny and earnings management in the oil refining industry

The fortunes of the oil refining industry have historically been tied to the political process. In periods of high gasoline prices public outcry increases pressure on the political process to increase regulation, taxation, and other costs on the industry. This study explores the relationship of gasoline prices and oil firm earning with accounting earnings management of oil firms. Findings indicate that firms make accounting changes and discretionary accruals to decrease (increase) earnings in periods when gasoline prices and oil firm earnings are rising (falling).     

Discrete choice surveys by telephone

In two consumer studies, discrete choice surveys were administered both by telephone and by traditional pencil and paper methods. Study participants responded to discrete choice surveys concerning pizza restaurants in the first study and fast food restaurants in the second. Neither aggregate level estimated utilities for the pizza restaurants, nor market shares for the fast food restaurants differed by method of administration. The results indicate that discrete choice surveys can be successfully administered by telephone. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Texas at Dallas. Dr. Perkins is interested in marketing research methodology and in the use of marketing research information in managerial decision making. Dr. Perkins has published articles in theJournal of Marketing Research andPsychometrika. He is a member of the American Marketing Association, the Marketing Research Association, and the TIMS College of Marketing. Jacqueline Roundy recently completed the M.S. degree in marketing from the Pennsylvania State University. In addition she holds an M.B.A. from the University of Utah. She is currently working in Europe.     

Permanent magnets: a technological analysis

Abstract
Technology analysis is a new technomanagerial discipline that provides common frameworks for analysing individual technologies and their relationships to each other. It is used here to probe the development of a particular technology, namely that of permanent magnets.
The paper traces the development of permanent magnets over the past decade and explores possible future improvements in performance parameters. The strength of magnets (i.e. energy product as expressed in kilo Joules per cubic metre) has increased from approximately 40 in the 1930s to approximately 400 at present.
Future developments will be constrained by a barrier which seems to exist at approximately 525 kilo Joules per cubic metre. However this is viewed as a barrier that can be transcended and not as an immutable limit. It therefore signifies a possible breakthrough zone.
S-curve theory leads analysts to speculate about a possible breakthrough during the five year period leading up to 1995. At that date magnetic strengths of 600+ kilo Joules per cubic metre could be aimed for.
Increased magnetic strength will improve the performance parameters of all technologies utilising magnets, unleash new magnetic based technologies and threaten many traditional areas in the fields of matter processing, transporting and storing, energy processing, and information processing and storing.
These effects will cascade through the entire technological landscape creating new markets and destroying others. The article gives an overview of these impacts on the technological landscape.     

Constructivist Negotiation Ethics

The success of Discourse Ethics is premised on the discovery and use of shared values. If this is true what type of negotiation style, especially when used in an intercultural setting, is best suited to make use of shared values. Research focusing on moral arguments between Germans and Americans uncovered an array of shared values. But the existence of shared values, by itself, was not an adequate predictor of a negotiation's success. What did prove to be a predictor of success was the use of a Constructivist style of negotiation by both parties.