Analysis of Labour Participation Behaviour of Korean Women with Dynamic Probit and Conditional Logit*

We analyse the dynamic labour participation behaviour of Korean women. State dependence under unobserved heterogeneity is considered, where the heterogeneity may be unrelated, pseudo‐related, or arbitrarily related to regressors. Three minor methodological contributions are made: interaction terms with lagged response are allowed in dynamic conditional logit; a three‐stage algorithm for dynamic probit is proposed; and treating the initial response as fixed is shown to be ill‐advised. The state dependence is about 0.6 × SD(error), higher for the married or junior college‐educated, and lower for women in their twenties and thirties. While education increases participation, college education has negative effects for women in their forties or above. Marriage has a high negative short‐term effect but a positive long‐term effect.     

Index-option pricing with stochastic volatility and the value of accurate variance forecasts

In pricing primary-market options and in making secondary markets, financial intermediaries depend on the quality of forecasts of the variance of the underlying assets. Hence, pricing of options provides the appropriate test of forecasts of asset volatility. NYSE index returns over the period of 1968–1991 suggest that pricing index options of up to 90-days maturity would be more accurate when: (1) using ARCH specifications in place of a moving average of squared returns; (2) using Hull and White's (1987) adjustment for stochastic variance in the Black and Scholes formula; (3) accounting explicitly for weekends and the slowdown of variance whenever the market is closed. (JEL C22, C53, C10, G11, G12)     

A model of Social Security Disability Insurance using matched SIPP/Administrative data

We study Disability Insurance (DI) application behavior in the US using matched SIPP and administrative data over 1989–1995. Certain state-contingent earnings projections and eligibility probabilities are central to the analysis. We find evidence for a small work disincentive effect of DI that seems to be restricted to a subset of the DI beneficiaries, including low earning groups such as blue collar workers and those subject to economic dislocation. Processing time, Medicare value, unemployment, private health insurance, and health shocks are some of the major factors that affect application propensity. The behavioral response of female workers to various parameters of the DI program is found to be quite different from that of males.     

Empirical risk aversion functions-estimates and assessment of their reliability

In this paper, we examine investor's risk preferences implied by option prices. In order to derive these preferences, we specify the functional form of a pricing kernel and then shift its parameters until realized returns are best explained by the subjective probability density function, which consists of the ratio of the risk-neutral probability density function and the pricing kernel. We examine, alternatively, pricing kernels of power, exponential, and higher order polynomial forms. Using S&P 500 index options, we find surprising evidence of risk neutrality, instead of risk aversion, in both the power and exponential cases. When extending the underlying assumption on the specification of the pricing kernel to one of higher order polynomial functions, we obtain functions exhibiting ‘monotonically decreasing’ relative risk aversion (DRRA) and anomalous ‘inverted U-shaped’ relative risk aversion. We find, however, that only the DRRA function is robust to variation in sample characteristics, and is statistically significant. Finally, we also find that most of our empirical results are consistent, even when taking into account market imperfections such as illiquidity.     

Korean unification prospects: an assessment through the BDN-model

The debate on the possible unification of South Korea and North Korea has often been assessed from the economic perspective, which is insufficient since unification entails not only the integration of two economies but political, social and technological integration of two territories. Using the box negotiation diagram model, this paper expands the scope of the study on South Korea and North Korea unification through a multidisciplinary approach encompassing the political, economic, social and technological perspectives. Given the huge imbalanced points of unification drawn from our analysis, we observed more divergence than convergence hence, hinging the possibility of unification of serious negotiation.     

An empirical test of turnover theory: In the case of Korean hotel employees

This study builds a working model of employment turnover theory and applies the model to the Korean hospitality industry through the meals of multiple regression analysis and path analysis. The results of the study support the existence of significant relationships between the variables presented in the working model.     

Investigating the advertising–sales relationship in the Lydia Pinkham data: a bootstrap approach

The dynamic relationship between advertising and sales in the annual Lydia Pinkham data is re-evaluated. Past studies have found a feedback system, although one-way causality from advertising to sales is expected. The bootstrap method is used in this paper as an alternative to the asymptotic method exclusively adopted by past studies. The impulse response analysis based on bivariate autoregressive (AR) model is conducted. Bootstrap-after-bootstrap confidence intervals on impulse responses provide evidence that sales do not cause advertising, contrary to the findings of past studies. Comparison of bootstrap-after-bootstrap prediction intervals calculated from univariate and bivariate AR models further supports this finding. Overall, this paper finds evidence of one-way causality from advertising to sales.