Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

This paper tests for the martingale hypothesis in the stock prices of a group of Asian markets. We use new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs. These are non-parametric finite sample tests, which do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference. This paper also presents Monte Carlo results that these non-parametric tests show superior small sample properties to those of the conventional Chow–Denning test. Both weekly and daily data from 1990 are considered, while moving sub-sample windows are used for the latter to control the sensitivity of the results to a particular sample period. It is found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets have been efficient in the weak-form. The markets of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines have shown no sign of market efficiency, despite financial liberalization measures implemented since the eighties. We have also found evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets have become efficient after the Asian crisis. In general, the results point toward the notion that the pricing efficiency of a market depends on the level of equity market development as well as the regulatory framework conducive of transparent corporate governance.     

Timing of apology after service failure: the moderating role of future interaction expectation on customer satisfaction

Marketing Letters - When there is a service failure, it is often believed that employees should immediately apologize to customers before hearing their complaints. However, we argue that in certain...     

A multilevel factor model: Identification,asymptotic theory and applications

This paper studies a multilevel factor model with global and country factors. The global factors affect all individuals, whereas the country factors affect only those within each specific country. A sequential procedure to identify the global and country factors separately is proposed. In the initial step, the global factors are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. Using this initial estimator, the principal component estimators (PCEs) of the global and country factors are constructed. It is shown that the PCEs estimate the spaces of the global and country factors consistently and are normally distributed in the limit. Several information criteria that can estimate the number of country factors are proposed. The number of global factors is assumed to be known. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that the sequential procedure and information criteria work well in finite samples. The method of this paper is applied to 25 OECD countries to identify an international business cycle. It is reported that the method extracts a global factor reasonably well.     

Resonant R&D structure for effective technology development amidst megacompetition—an empirical analysis of smart cooperative R&D structure in Japan’s transport machinery industry

Under the megacompetition in globalizing economy while facing long lasting economic stagnation, the effective utilization of potential resources for innovation has become a crucial strategy for R&D intensive industries. The construction of a smart cooperative R&D structure has thus become significant. Among Japan’s R&D intensive industries, the transport machinery industry has constructed an effective cooperative R&D structure by smartly complementing both comparatively advantageous and disadvantageous technologies by means of integrating the effective utilization of technology spillover and joint collaborative R&D.Prompted by this complementing system, this paper attempts to elucidate the mechanism enabling the transport machinery industry to construct the smart cooperative R&D structure. Resonant R&D structure is identified as a source of such R&D cooperation leading to increasing its marginal productivity of technology.     

The nature of substitution between transport modes

Conclusions In this paper, we have derived a non-linear demand function for gasoline by means of a two-stage optimization of the S-2 branch utility function. The demand function was simplified by employment of the Kuhn-Tucker optimization conditions and the Shephard-Samuelson theorem. Two principal conclusions emerge from the empirical work presented in the preceding pages. First, the magnitude of the inter-class elasticity of substitution shows that consumers do not easily substitute among separate branches of the utility function. Second, the value for the intra-class elasticity of substitution suggests that consumers have little inclination to substitute between different modes of transportation. The U.S. household does not readily switch from private to public transportation when the price of gasoline and transportation costs as a whole increase. At the present time when there is little chance for substantial reduction in the price of gasoline, efforts to moderate the demand for gasoline by shifting household transportation from private to public modes will not be fruitful unless gasoline pricing policy is quite drastic or else supplemented by other policy measures.     

Does Alibaba's Magic Work Outside China?

Alibaba was an established e‐commerce giant in the Chinese online retail industry. In 2014, it recorded the world's largest initial public offering (IPO), raising a total of $25 billion. Alibaba's groundbreaking IPO and continuous growth in China had raised speculation on its imminent and potential expansions into other countries including the United States. On the other hand, Amazon and eBay had been leaders in the e‐commerce industry of the United States, arguably the world. This case seeks to weigh the potential success of Alibaba should it choose to expand outside its home country, China, including the United States. This case also helps understand how the Chinese business environment influenced the success of Alibaba, relative to other countries. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the bias-corrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.     

To seek variety or uniformity: The role of culture in consumers’ choice in a group setting

One stream of research suggests that individuals in a collectivistic culture tend to follow the others’ choices in a group choice setting (e.g., Markus and Kitayama 1991). Other research, however, suggests that the choices others make have little impact on the individuals’ choices in this cultural context (e.g., Kim and Drolet 2003). The current research attempts to test these competing hypotheses by examining individuals’ choices in group choice contexts (Ariely and Levav 2000). First, comparisons of 517 meal order slips from two local restaurants in Korea with simulated outcomes indicate a profound group-level uniformity seeking in dish selections. Second, our field experiment reveals that members of a collectivist culture tend to follow group members’ choices when group influence is evident. Unlike the previous findings of studies conducted on individuals from Western cultures, selections made in accordance with the cultural norm do not result in the reduction of emotional well-being for the collectivist cultural individuals. Finally, we provide more direct evidence for the hypothesized role of culture by showing that the choices of individuals with collectivistic cultural backgrounds are associated with higher uniformity-seeking tendency compared to those of individualistic cultural backgrounds.     

Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data

This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from 1900 to 2009. Return predictability is found to be driven by changing market conditions, consistent with the implication of the adaptive markets hypothesis. During market crashes, no statistically significant return predictability is observed, but return predictability is associated with a high degree of uncertainty. In times of economic or political crises, stock returns have been highly predictable with a moderate degree of uncertainty in predictability. We find that return predictability has been smaller during economic bubbles than in normal times. We also find evidence that return predictability is associated with stock market volatility and economic fundamentals.