The “swing of the pendulum” from public to market support for science and technology: Is the U.S. leading the way?

The structure and financing of science and technology activities are undergoing a slow, but profound, change. This change can be briefly characterized as a shift from relying and supporting public science to a stronger emphasis on “market-based” incentives for science and technology. In this paper we analyze this shift in a historical perspective, discussing both the theoretical explanations and the empirical trends of the ongoing change. While we do not claim to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive identification of the causes of this shift, we argue that it is largely driven by the perception of a shift of the U.S. policy towards market-based, rather than publicly supported, incentives for science and technology. This, in turn—given the strong economic performance of the United States over the 1990s—has influenced policies in most OECD countries, especially in Europe.We conclude by analyzing the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading U.S. universities. This has allowed the construction of an infrastructure now used largely by the private sector, but it also noted that the United States has not compromised public support for core areas or in those fields in which there is a clear perception that market incentives are not sufficient for meeting the strategic targets of the U.S. policy. The implication is that there is a considerable policy diversity in the U.S. practice and that all aspects of this diversity should be considered when using the United States as a reference.     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

Technology commercialization intelligence: Organizational antecedents and performance consequences

External technology commercialization, e.g., by means of technology licensing, has recently gained in importance. Despite imperfections in technology markets, out-licensing constitutes a major technology commercialization channel. Although the identification of licensing opportunities represents a significant managerial challenge, prior research has relatively neglected these activities. Therefore, we develop the concept of ‘technology commercialization intelligence’ (TCI), which refers to the observation of a firm's environment with particular focus on identifying technology licensing opportunities. Grounded in a dynamic capabilities perspective, we test five hypotheses regarding organizational antecedents and performance consequences of TCI, drawing on data from a survey of 152 companies. The empirical findings provide strong support for the importance of the TCI concept. The findings deepen our understanding of the discrepancies between successful pioneering firms active in technology licensing and many others being less successful. The results have major implications for technology exploitation in open innovation processes.     

Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.     

Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

Democratization is the driving force for technological and economic change

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between democratization and technological innovation. In primis, the paper shows, through economic history, that democratization is an antecedent process (cause) to technological and economic change (effect). In particular, the primary finding is that democratization is a driving force for technological change: most free countries, measured with liberal, participatory, and constitutional democracy indices, have a higher level of technology than less free and more autocratic countries. In fact, “democracy richness” generates a higher rate of technological innovation with fruitful effects for the wellbeing and wealth of nations. These findings and predictions lead to the conclusion that policy makers need to be cognizant of positive associations between democratization and technological innovation paths in order to support the modern economic growth and future technological progress of countries.     

Anticipating converging industries using publicly available data

Industry convergence, described as the blurring of boundaries between industries, plays an increasingly pivotal role in shaping markets and industries. Traditionally, this phenomenon has been discussed in respect to telecommunications, information technologies and electronics, but more recently also the chemical and its related industries find themselves affected by a larger convergence process. With the primary example of phytosterols in the two converging industries of Cosmeceuticals and of Nutraceuticals and Functional Foods, we analyze 7455 scientific and patent references in respect to first indicators for signs of convergence. Furthermore, we present and discuss a multiple indicator concept for monitoring convergence in an R&D-intensive field on the basis of publicly available data.     

A categorical modeling approach to analyzing new product adoption and usage in the context of the building-materials industry

A high proportion of non-adopters is prevalent in any market where the product under consideration is relatively new or has a low acceptance rate. This results in a low proportion of adopters in a representative sample. In adoption or product usage modeling such high proportion of zeros in the dependent variable may be addressed by zero-inflated models, by modeling the product adoption and usage as a function of two latent processes. This paper considers a zero-inflated ordinal-probit model for investigating adoption and usage of innovative wall-cavity insulation materials among residential homebuilders in the US. This study assumes a three-step adoption process of innovative housing materials, namely, trial adoption, intermediate adoption and complete adoption. The study uses 5757 responses from a combined ‘Annual Builder Practices Survey’ dataset comprising ten cross-sectional yearly surveys, undertaken by the NAHB Research Center, from 1996 to 2005. The research results indicate that though a higher proportion of large firms are more likely to adopt innovative insulation material, they continue using established products while slowly increasing their use of the innovative material over time. However, when smaller homebuilders adopt an innovative insulation material, it replaces the existing product from their material usage portfolio at a faster rate.