Fiscal Stimulus,Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia

Recent debates on a sustainable recovery of the global economy have tended to overemphasise the ‘savings glut’ hypothesis and the unavoidable imperative of higher consumption in China and other emerging Asian countries. That oversaving and not underinvestment is coming in the way of a quicker and more durable recovery is not just simplistic but misleading from a medium‐term growth perspective for emerging Asian countries and other developing countries in this region. Drawing upon country panel data for developing countries and a subsample of Asian countries during the period 1991–2007, this study makes a case for a bold and coordinated fiscal stimulus, directed to stimulating agricultural and overall growth, and mitigation of poverty and hunger. Our simulations further suggest that poverty reduction is likely to be larger if the fiscal stimulus is directed to social spending in health and education sectors. Indeed, if our simulations of fiscal impacts have any validity, the dire predictions of millions getting trapped in poverty and hunger may turn out to be exaggerated. The prospects of a strong recovery led by fiscal stimulus are thus real and achievable.     

SZPILRAJN,ARROW AND SUZUMURA: CONCISE PROOFS OF EXTENSION THEOREMS AND AN EXTENSION

This paper extends the classical extension theorem established by Edward Szpilrajn (Fundamenta Mathematicae, 16, pp. 386–389, 1930). Szpilrajn's theorem states that every quasi‐ordering has an ordering extension. Because of its usefulness in various themes of economics, it has been applied by many researchers. Important generalizations have been presented by two authors, Kenneth Arrow and Kotaro Suzumura, among others. First, we provide concise proofs of four extension theorems by Szpilrajn, Arrow and Suzumura. We then show an extension of their extension theorems.     

Incompleteness,regularity, and collective preference

This paper examines the incompleteness of collective preference. We provide a series of Arrovian impossibility theorems without completeness. First, we consider the notion of regularity introduced by Eliaz and Ok (2006, Games and Economic Behavior 56, 61–86); it is an appropriate richness property for strict preference when preference is allowed to be incomplete. We examine the implication of imposing regularity on collective preference. Second, we propose responsiveness, a variation of positive responsiveness. This axiom requires that some changes in individual preferences make an alternative weakly better than another. Third, we consider coherency conditions for collective preferences; this conditionally requires the existence of comparable pairs in a certain manner. We prove an impossibility result for each condition using Arrovian axioms.     

The simultaneous berth and quay crane allocation problem

This paper addresses efficient berth and crane allocation scheduling at a multi-user container terminal. First, we introduce a formulation for the simultaneous berth and crane allocation problem. Next, by employing genetic algorithm we develop a heuristic to find an approximate solution for the problem. The fitness value of a chromosome is obtained by crane transfer scheduling across berths, which is determined by a maximum flow problem-based algorithm based on a berth allocation problem solution defined by the chromosome. The results of numerical experiments show that the proposed heuristic is applicable to solve this difficult but essential terminal operation problem.     

The emergence of market monitoring in Japanese banks: Evidence from the subordinated debt market

This paper uses a unique data set on the spreads of subordinated debts issued by Japanese banks to investigate the presence of market monitoring. The results show that subordinated debt investors punished weak banks by requiring higher interest rates. Moreover, I find that the spreads and the sensitivity of spreads to Moody’s bank ratings both increased dramatically after the Japanese government allowed a large city bank, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, to fail and passed the Financial Reform Act and the Rapid Revitalization Act in the late 1990s. These results suggest that the decline of conjectural guarantee led to the emergence of market monitoring. In addition, I find the relationship between spreads and accounting measures of bank risk to be quite fragile.     

Weak Independence and Social Semi‐Orders

This paper provides variants of Arrow's impossibility theorem, which states that there exists no non‐dictatorial aggregation rule satisfying weak Pareto, independence of irrelevant alternatives and collective rationality. In this paper, independence of irrelevant alternatives and collective rationality are simultaneously relaxed. Weak independence is imposed instead of independence of irrelevant alternatives. Social preferences are assumed to satisfy the semi‐order properties of semi‐transitivity and the interval‐order property. We prove that there exists a vetoer when the number of alternatives is greater than or equal to six.     

Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty

We develop a model of household demand for frequently purchased consumer goods that are branded, storable and subject to stochastic price fluctuations. Our framework accounts for how inventories and expectations of future prices affect current period purchase decisions. We estimate our model using scanner data for the ketchup category. Our results indicate that price expectations and the nature of the price process have important effects on demand elasticities. Long-run cross price elasticities of demand are more than twice as great as short-run cross price elasticities. Temporary price cuts (or deals) primarily generate purchase acceleration and category expansion, rather than brand switching.     

Local risk-minimization for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models

We obtain explicit representations of locally risk-minimizing strategies for call and put options in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, which are Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type stochastic volatility models. Using Malliavin calculus for Lévy processes, Arai and Suzuki (Int. J. Financ. Eng. 2:1550015, 2015) obtained a formula for locally risk-minimizing strategies for Lévy markets under many additional conditions. Supposing mild conditions, we make sure that the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models satisfy all the conditions imposed in (Arai and Suzuki in Int. J. Financ. Eng. 2:1550015, 2015). Among others, we investigate the Malliavin differentiability of the density of the minimal martingale measure. Moreover, we introduce some numerical experiments for locally risk-minimizing strategies.     

The inside scoop: Acceptance and rejection at the journal of international economics

There is little work on the inner workings of journals. What factors seem to affect the ability to publish in a journal? Could simple rules (which are already used by some journals) like the desk rejection of a significant minority of papers, help to streamline the process? At what cost? How well do journals seem to do in choosing papers? What can we say about the extent of type 1 and type 2 errors? Do editors seem to have uniform standards or are some harsher than others? We use data on submissions to the Journal of International Economics to help answer these questions.