Quality Uncertainty and Challenges to Wheat Procurement

Issues related to quality uncertainty in wheat producing countries have escalated in importance in recent years. While Canada addresses these issues in part through variety regulations, firms in the United States resolve these through varying commercial strategies. Conventional alternatives for procurement range from spot purchases with specifications for easily measurable characteristics, to varying forms of strategies with precommitment. In grains, these are complicated by intrinsic uncertainty associated with functional qualities that are not easily measurable and that procurement costs vary spatially. Thus, shifting origins may involve higher cost due to having to bid grain away from its best market. We posed alternative procurement strategies and developed analytical models to evaluate the costs and risks of these in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Climatic conditions are a source of uncertainty in functional performance which reduces incentives for contracting and vertical integration, and poses a challenge to any form of integrated supply chain management. Les problèmes liés à l'incertitude quant à la qualité des approvisionnements des pays producteurs de blé ont augmenté au cours des dernières années. Tandis que le Canada s'attaque à ces problèmes en imposant divers règlements, des entreprises états‐uniennes les résolvent en adoptant diverses stratégies commerciales. Les moyens d'approvisionnement traditionnels varient des achats au comptant assortis de critères pour les caractéristiques facilement mesurables, à diverses stratégies comprenant un pré‐engagement. Dans le secteur des céréales, la situation est compliquée par l'incertitude intrinsèque quant aux qualités fonctionnelles qui ne sont pas facilement mesurables et le fait que les coûts d'approvisionnements varient d'un endroit à l'autre. Par conséquent, s'approvisionner dans d'autres pays pourrait entraîner des coûts plus élevés en privant le secteur de son meilleur marché. Nous avons formulé d'autres stratégies d'approvisionnement et élaboré des modèles analytiques pour évaluer les coûts et les risques de ces stratégies dans le cas du blé de force roux de printemps. Les conditions climatiques sont une source d'incertitude de la qualité fonctionnelle qui diminue les incitatifs pour la conclusion de contrat et l'intégration verticale et qui pose un obstacle pour toute forme de gestion intégrée de la chaîne d'approvisionnement.     

Transparency and Bidding Competition in International Wheat Trade

One of the trade policy issues identified by U.S. interests, including grower groups, traders and policy makers, is price transparency. This has been a point of contention between the United States and Canada as well as other exporting countries with state trading enterprises (STEs). The transparency problem generally refers to the inability to observe terms of trade (including price, quality, credit, etc.)offered by STEs, and the potential strategic advantage this provides in bidding competition. A game theory model of import tendering is developed in this paper to examine the effects of information asymmetry among rivals. Several stylized examples are used to illustrate aspects of competition and to analyze effects on bidding strategies. Results indicate that:

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  Less uncertainty among rivals reduces equilibrium bids and prices.

       

Think Outside the Ad: Can Advertising Creativity Benefit More Than the Advertiser?

This article adds to the literature on advertising creativity as well as the growing body of research on the unintended effects of advertising. In three experimental studies we “think outside the ad” and test whether there could be unintended, positive effects of advertising creativity. The results show advertising creativity to have a positive influence on consumers’ own creativity as well as their perceptions of media vehicle value. The effects are mediated by processing and perceived creativity. In discussing the results we encourage advertisers not only to take responsibility for avoiding unintended negative effects on consumers but also to explore and factor in potential positive effects that benefit consumers.     

Bank audit practices and loan loss provisioning

I empirically examine the evolution of loan loss accounting across banks that differ categorically by external auditing practice. Using a partial adjustment model, and a sample of 75,505 observations on affiliated banks, 1995–2009, I find evidence of convergence across audit categories in target ratios of provisions for loan losses to nonaccrual loans. This is consistent with a standardized method of accounting for “impaired” loans. I observe less convergence, on the other hand, in target ratios of provisions for loan losses to loans, which appears to accommodate a role for managerial discretion.     

Conceptualizing coopetition as a process: An outline of change in cooperative and competitive interactions

This study discusses how and why cooperative interactions between competitors change as their coopetitive relation develops over time. Such cooperative interactions are conceptualized to depend on the existence of agreements between competitors, or rules for cooperating and competing, which are formulated based on past experiences from mutual interaction. The purpose is to develop a framework which explains change in coopetitive interactions and particularly in inter-organizational rules for interaction. This framework distinguishes three mechanisms underlying change: inter-organizational learning manifested in cooperation between competitors, intra-organizational learning based on confrontations between conflicting experiences among organizational members, and the development of the external environment. Based on this generic framework, three scenarios are developed that delineate the nature of the change process in relations characterized respectively by strong competitive and cooperative dimensions, and in relations characterized by equal and moderately strong levels of cooperation and competition. These scenarios further suggest that rules for interaction change in a predefined or discontinuous manner depending on the balance and strength of the cooperative and competitive interactions.     

Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”

The importance of calibrating hedging strategies for processors has escalated primarily due to the sharply increased volatility of futures, product, and by‐product prices. The purpose of this paper is to analyze price risk‐management strategies for wheat flour milling using copula distributions. While the application is for flour milling, it has similarities with other processing industries which confront one or more ingredients, one or more outputs, and futures for one of the commodities and/or products. The paper develops utility maximizing models encompassing expected return and risk. Alternative scenarios are evaluated. First, the models were used to derive optimal hedge ratios, as well as various measures of risk and return under alternative scenarios, and hedge durations. The results indicated hedge ratios are typically less than 1. The hedge ratios for the Mean‐value‐at‐risk (M‐VaR)‐Copula model increased with greater durations. Second, the VaR for the M‐VaR‐Copula was in most cases less than the noncopula specifications. Thus, noncopula models may over state risk as represented by VaR.     

Optimal supplier testing and tolerance strategies for genetically modified (GM) wheat

A stochastic optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing strategies, costs, and risks for dual marketing of genetically modified (GM) and non‐GM wheat in an export supply chain. The optimal testing strategy is derived that minimizes disutility of additional system costs due to testing and quality loss. Cost components were estimated including those related to testing, quality loss, and a risk premium to induce shippers to undertake dual marketing as opposed to handling only non‐GM crops. Uncertainties were incorporated for adventitious presence and commingling, variety declaration, and test accuracy. Sensitivities were performed for effects of variety risks and declaration, penalty differentials, buyer tolerances, risk aversion, and GM adoption. Results indicate testing and segregation can be performed at a relatively low cost and risk to buyers.     

Import Tenders and Bidding Strategies in Wheat

Bidding competition plays an important role in price discovery and the determination of suppliers in international grains. We analyze bidding competition in this paper in the international market for wheat for a specific importer. Optimal bids and expected payoffs were derived for a prototypical bidder. We analyzed the impacts of the number of competitors, information, and cost differentials. In each case, we quantified the likely impact on optimal bids and expected payoffs. Another interesting effect was that of correlated bids, which had the effect of increasing the probability of winning, optimal bids, and expected profits. Finally, we explored the prospective impacts of the winner's curse on optimal bids.     

Contracting for Canola in the Great Plains States

Canola has become an important crop in the last decade in the United States. Production of canola is risky and competes with other crops that have varying risk reduction mechanisms. Processors develop and offer contracts with varying specifications that allow growers to reduce risk and attract canola production. In this study, preplant contracting strategies were evaluated in terms of risk and return for growers and processors. Alternative contracts include fixed‐price‐variety‐specific with and without act‐of‐God provisions, and an oil‐premium contract. Grower returns and processor gross margins were simulated and resulting distributions were evaluated using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function. In the dominant growing region, growers would prefer fixed‐price‐variety‐specific contracts versus contracts with oil premiums. The latter would only be preferred by crushers that are highly risk averse. The results vary regionally suggesting that contract types should vary by region to be acceptable to a broader range of growers and processors.