American options: the EPV pricing model

Summary We explicitly solve the pricing problem for perpetual American puts and calls, and provide an efficient semi-explicit pricing procedure for options with finite time horizon. Contrary to the standard approach, which uses the price process as a primitive, we model the price process as the expected present value of a stream, which is a monotone function of a Lévy process. Certain processes exhibiting mean-reverting, stochastic volatility and/or switching features can be modeled this way. This specification allows us to consider assets that pay no dividends at all when the level of the underlying stochastic factor is too low, assets that pay dividends at a fixed rate when the underlying stochastic process remains in some range, or capped dividends.The authors are grateful to the anonymous referees for valuable comments and suggestions.     

Impact of Chinese Agribusiness Entrepreneurs on the Local Land Market in the Russian Far East

Chinese originally migrated to the Russian Far East (RFE) to fill a labor shortage on collective farms. In more recent decades, some Chinese migrants have chosen to lease land from Russian farmers to manage their own farms. Rising soybean prices and the trade war between China and the United States have increased demand for land capable of producing soybeans. Thus, Chinese farmers in the RFE compete for land with Russians. The Chinese also contribute positively to local food security by increasing food availability and accessibility. This study uses an econometric model to analyze the impact of Chinese on local land markets in the RFE. Financial support for Russian farmers by the government depresses their demand for land; rising soybean prices and the employment of Chinese farm workers by Russian farmers encourage farm expansion, resulting in higher land prices. Selling farm produce to Chinese merchants increases the amount of land owned, cultivated, and rented by Russian farmers.     

Same currency,different strategies? The (asymmetric) role of the exchange rate in shaping European agri-food exports

This article uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NADRL) model introduced by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to assess the role that the exchange rate plays in shaping European agri-food exports after the introduction of the Euro. Although the 10 countries of this study share the same currency (and thus a single nominal exchange rate with the US), cross-country discrepancies of exports’ reactions to exchange rate changes are evident. Moreover, I find that exchange rate changes influence exports asymmetrically in the long run. Euro appreciations are harmful to a lesser extent than Euro depreciations are beneficial for European agri-food exports. The magnitude of this effect is country-specific and varies considerably between individual exporting countries. Exported quantities are less affected by exchange rate fluctuations than export values, which is in line with local currency price stabilization strategies of the exporters. This finding is interpreted as a sign of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through due to strategic (asymmetric) markup adjustments by firms with heterogeneous productivity. Besides that, the outcomes suggest that nonprice competition might be in play in some cases.     

Weather as a Competitive Factor between Local and Foreign Manufacturing Companies in Russia

Globalisation has sparked academic interest in companies’ competitive factors and a myriad of internal and external competitive factors have been studied. However, to our knowledge the weather of the host country has not been under study even though weather has been demonstrated to affect economic activity. This paper utilises a company-level panel data to analyse if weather has an impact on domestic and foreign manufacturing companies’ operations in Russia. Temperature was identified to have a non-linear effect on foreign companies’ revenues, such that a warmer year raises revenues in colder regions while balancing out in warmer regions and actually has a negative effect in the hottest regions. For local Russian companies, we discovered an opposite, but less robust effect. This and home country climate based analysis support the hypothesis that foreign companies benefit from more pleasant weather in the local colder climate while the impact is not so critical for the local companies or foreign companies from countries with similar climate to Russia.     

The Performance Effects of Business Groups in Russia

This study analyses the impact of business group affiliation on firm performance during a time when business groups are newly formed, when the economic and institutional environment is changing, and when group survival is uncertain. Based primarily on a transaction cost approach, we develop two hypotheses, concerning profitability and risk sharing (redistribution) respectively. The positive profitability hypothesis proposes that company affiliation with a business group directly and positively affects the profitability of each affiliate. A positive direct effect emerges when each affiliate benefits from access to group resources. The redistribution hypothesis considers the simultaneous possibility that inter-affiliate transfers of resources through internal markets are designed to redistribute profits among group members. We argue that variance-reducing redistribution from strong to weak group members is linked to group survival in times of institutional change. Our empirical approach focuses on testing these two linked hypotheses (and their alternatives) using a relatively large, contemporary and time varying database of Russian firms. We also develop a framework that distinguishes among the four possible empirical outcomes associated with the hypotheses. Our results provide unambiguous support for the case where the impact of group membership on profitability is positive and redistribution is variance-reducing. We term this outcome Business Group Robustness, and contrast it with other possible empirical outcomes.     

Quantitative analysis of health insurance reform: Separating regulation from redistribution

Two key components of the recent U.S. health reform are a new regulation of the individual health insurance market and an increase in income redistribution in the economy. Which component contributes more to the welfare outcome of the reform? We address this question by constructing a general equilibrium life-cycle model that incorporates both medical expenses and labor income risks. We replicate the key features of the current health insurance system in the U.S. and calibrate the model using the Medical Expenditures Panel Survey dataset. We find that the reform decreases the number of uninsured more than twice and generates substantial welfare gains. These welfare gains mostly come from the redistributive measures embedded in the reform, rather than from the regulatory changes.     

Trade and trade policy with differentiated products: A Chamberlinian – Ricardian model. A comment

Abstract

This paper shows that the results of Venables (1987 Venables, A. 1987. Trade and trade policy with differentiated products: a Chamberlinian – Ricardian model. The Economic Journal, 97: 700–717. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) depend critically on the assumption that there are no fixed costs of trade. The introduction of fixed costs of exporting, while making the model more consistent with the empirical evidence, leads to the opposite conclusion that technological progress in one country cannot harm the welfare of its trading partner. However, the results can be obtained in a richer setting with heterogeneous firms.     

Indicative bidding: An experimental analysis

Indicative bidding is a practice commonly used in sales of complex and very expensive assets. Theoretical analysis shows that efficient entry is not guaranteed under indicative bidding, since there is no equilibrium in which more qualified bidders are more likely to be selected for the final sale. Furthermore, there exist alternative bid procedures that, in theory at least, guarantee 100% efficiency and higher revenue for the seller. We employ experiments to compare actual performance between indicative bidding and one of these alternative procedures. The data shows that indicative bidding performs as well as the alternative procedure in terms of entry efficiency, while having other characteristics that favor it over the alternative procedure. Our results provide an explanation for the widespread use of indicative bidding despite the potential problem identified in the equilibrium analysis.     

A dual-process model of how incorporating audio-visual sensory cues in video advertising promotes active attention

Capturing consumers’ attention to video advertising is a key marketing challenge. Using real video advertising viewed by a sample of consumers matching the US population on age and gender, the authors examined attention to audio-visual and visual sensory cues identifying the brand using a biometric measure, phasic heart rate. The findings show differences in attention type depending on which senses are stimulated by the sensory cue. This research uncovers a mechanism (internal processing) for how consumers process multisensory cues (audio-visual) in video advertising and confirms visual sensory cues can elicit automatic attention through the orienting response. In addition to the dual-coding explanation for the superiority of audio-visual sensory cues, the present research suggests a second reason: that audio-visual sensory cues can elicit additional internal processing of the brand name, resulting in active attention and better storage of the brand in memory. This has implications for the limited capacity model of motivated mediated message processing, as well as for marketers relating to the type of content recommended to follow an audio-visual or visual sensory cue in video advertising.     

Modelling driver propensity for traffic accidents: a comparison of multiple regression analysis and fuzzy approach

Abstract

This research proposes an assessment and decision support model to use when a driver should be examined about their propensity for traffic accidents, based on an estimation of the driver’s psychological traits. The proposed model was tested on a sample of 305 drivers. Each participant completed four psychological tests: the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), the Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ), the Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ) and the Questionnaire for Self-assessment of Driving Ability. In addition, participants completed an extensive demographic and driving survey. Various fuzzy inference systems were tested and each was defined using the well-known Wang-Mendel method for rule-base definition based on empirical data. For this purpose, a programming code was designed and utilized. Based on the obtained results, it was determined which combination of the considered psychological tests provides the best prediction of a driver’s propensity for traffic accidents. The best of the considered fuzzy inference systems might be used as a decision support tool in various situations, such as in recruitment procedures for professional drivers. The validity of the proposed fuzzy approach was confirmed as its implementation provided better results than from statistics, in this case multiple regression analysis.