Static and semistatic hedging as contrarian or conformist bets

In this paper, we argue that, once the costs of maintaining the hedging portfolio are properly taken into account, semistatic portfolios should more properly be thought of as separate classes of derivatives, with nontrivial, model‐dependent payoff structures. We derive new integral representations for payoffs of exotic European options in terms of payoffs of vanillas, different from the Carr–Madan representation, and suggest approximations of the idealized static hedging/replicating portfolio using vanillas available in the market. We study the dependence of the hedging error on a model used for pricing and show that the variance of the hedging errors of static hedging portfolios can be sizably larger than the errors of variance‐minimizing portfolios. We explain why the exact semistatic hedging of barrier options is impossible for processes with jumps, and derive general formulas for variance‐minimizing semistatic portfolios. We show that hedging using vanillas only leads to larger errors than hedging using vanillas and first touch digitals. In all cases, efficient calculations of the weights of the hedging portfolios are in the dual space using new efficient numerical methods for calculation of the Wiener–Hopf factors and Laplace–Fourier inversion.     

Chinese Migrant Farmers in the Russian Far East: Impact on Rural Labor Markets

The close proximity of China and Russia, the activities of Chinese farmers, and the reduction in Russian labor resources have created job opportunities for Chinese workers in the Russian Far East (RFE). Chinese workers fill a labor shortage in agriculture, but little research has been done on them. We developed an econometric model to test the effects of Chinese intermittent migration on labor markets in the RFE. We found the proximity of Chinese to Russian farms reduces wages for both Russian and Chinese workers and increases their part-time employment on Russian farms. The greater availability of Chinese workers in the region results in lower number of family members working on Russian farms. Thus, the influx of Chinese workers may contribute to demographic shifts in the Russian population.     

Optimal stopping made easy

This paper presents a simple discrete time model for valuing real options. A short and simple proof of optimal exercise rules for the standard problems in the real options theory is given in the binomial and trinomial models, and, more generally, when the underlying uncertainty is modelled as a random walk on a lattice. The method of the paper is based on the use of the expected present value operators. With straightforward modifications, the method works in discrete time-continuous space, continuous time-continuous space and continuous time-discrete space models.     

Introduction: Transitional economies and changing notions of accounting and accountability

This paper explores the issue of the true and fair view (TFV) and the overriding principle within the European Union (EU), via a legally based analysis of the relationship between EU and national laws. We apply the supremacy of European law to methods of incorporating the TFV into national legislation, using Austria as a detailed case study, showing that all countries – maybe against their original intention – either have an override (as does Austria, contrary to the prevailing local opinion) or have failed to honour their EU commitments. As part of our argument, we explain the importance of the Roman law teleological principle in legal application and interpretation, as is well known in Continental countries. We show that the effect of the UK TFV override is in principle exactly analogous, only arguably even more powerful, which is not at all well known in Anglo-Saxon countries. We suggest reasons why the status quo ante in particular countries may be adhered to, and generalise the implications of our arguments.     

PRACTICAL GUIDE TO REAL OPTIONS IN DISCRETE TIME*

Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This article suggests a general, computationally simple approach to real options in discrete time. Explicit formulas are derived even for embedded options. Discrete time processes reflect the scarcity of observations in the data, and may account for fat tails and skewness of probability distributions of commodity prices. The method of this article is based on the use of the expected present value operators.     

EFFICIENT PRICING OF BARRIER OPTIONS AND CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS IN LÉVY MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATE

Recently, advantages of conformal deformations of the contours of integration in pricing formulas for European options have been demonstrated in the context of wide classes of Lévy models, the Heston model, and other affine models. Similar deformations were used in one‐factor Lévy models to price options with barrier and lookback features and credit default swaps (CDSs). In the present paper, we generalize this approach to models, where the dynamics of the assets is modeled as , where X is a Lévy process, and the interest rate is stochastic. Assuming that X and r are independent, and , the infinitesimal generator of the pricing semigroup in the model for the short rate, satisfies weak regularity conditions, which hold for popular models of the short rate, we develop a variation of the pricing procedure for Lévy models which is almost as fast as in the case of the constant interest rate. Numerical examples show that about 0.15 second suffices to calculate prices of 8 options of same maturity in a two‐factor model with the error tolerance and less; in a three‐factor model, accuracy of order 0.001–0.005 is achieved in about 0.2 second. Similar results are obtained for quanto CDS, where an additional stochastic factor is the exchange rate. We suggest a class of Lévy models with the stochastic interest rate driven by 1–3 factors, which allows for fast calculations. This class can satisfy the current regulatory requirements for banks mandating sufficiently sophisticated credit risk models.     

Competition and Industrial Organisation in Transition Markets: What Can We Derive from Empirical Studies?

Competition is the basic concept for both industrial organisation theory and institutional economics. Transition economies, including Russia, are natural laboratories allowing us to trace the emergence of competition, the influence of competition on the conduct of market participants, the relationship between competition and market structure and the institutional foundation of competition. This article provides a summary of the results of empirical studies in the above area. We try to explain some puzzles concerning the influence of competition on the conduct of Russian market participants and interpret the results in the framework of institutional and industrial economics. Overall, the results of empirical studies can be generalised as follows. Competition in Russian markets has been gaining momentum over the last 15 years. The results of empirical studies have confirmed the assumption that competition is an incentive for active restructuring of privatised enterprises. Many of the data collected are evidence in favour of the endogenous market structure approach. From the institutional viewpoint, the history of the evolution of Russia's transition economy shows interdependence between private property and competition: better protection of property rights is a precondition for the development of competition. At the same time, the model of corporate governance that allows the property rights of private owners to be protected in the Russian institutional environment restricts organisational diversity and therefore competition in Russian markets.     

Consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares estimators in generalized STAR models

Space–time autoregressive (STAR) models, introduced by Cliff and Ord [Spatial autocorrelation (1973) Pioneer, London] are successfully applied in many areas of science, particularly when there is prior information about spatial dependence. These models have significantly fewer parameters than vector autoregressive models, where all information about spatial and time dependence is deduced from the data. A more flexible class of models, generalized STAR models, has been introduced in Borovkova et al. [Proc. 17th Int. Workshop Stat. Model. (2002), Chania, Greece] where the model parameters are allowed to vary per location. This paper establishes strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the least squares estimator in generalized STAR models. These results are obtained under minimal conditions on the sequence of innovations, which are assumed to form a martingale difference array. We investigate the quality of the normal approximation for finite samples by means of a numerical simulation study, and apply a generalized STAR model to a multivariate time series of monthly tea production in west Java, Indonesia.     

Understanding the adoption of project management in Serbian organizations: Insights from an exploratory study

The article contributes to our understanding of the drivers behind, and the nature of, project management implementation in the complex context of a transitional economy. Relevant insights are generated through an integrated and dynamic analysis of interviews and secondary data from a sample of local organizations, based on a conceptual model of strategic transformation. The analysis concludes with propositions about how both adoption of and resistance to project management implementation in the region could be understood from a strategic point of view, taking into account complex and dissonant circumstances of transition, history, cultural tradition, embedded social values, and identities of individual organizational members.     

Ecotourism experiences reported online: Classification of satisfaction attributes

This study proposed a quantitative method for evaluating ecotourism experiences reported online by U.S. travelers to Costa Rica. The user-generated content (UGC) used in this study was 373 reviews extracted from TripAdvisor^®. By applying the content analysis technique, 26 attributes that influence ecotourists’ satisfaction with their ecolodge stays were identified and further aggregated into seven categories: ecolodge settings, room, nature, service, food, location, and value for money. A two-step non-parametric statistical procedure was developed to quantitatively support the classification of attributes into satisfiers, dissatisfiers, criticals, and neutrals, the typology first proposed by Cadotte and Turgeon [(1988). Dissatisfiers and satisfiers: suggestions from consumer complaints and compliments. Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior, 1(1), 74-79]. The proposed procedure is considered an original contribution of the article to the literature. The authors hope that the results from this study can be useful to ecolodge managers to evaluate performance in critical areas and develop strategies to maximize customer satisfaction through better utilization of limited resources.